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Commentary on the Clarity Act, Irony (Eye-rony), and the Eye of Horus (lol)

When reading this X post I just did. Try to think of it from the lens of this not being the market cycle top but still a very meaningful top/pivot moment

tops are regime changes

this very well could be

and that comes with a new way of thinking and behaving

will go from HODL

to I TODL you so

I think I need to have that trademark that

I want to keep reminding everyone that although I speak with confidence and the narrative/story/sentiment I am explaining fits the technicals and market moment, I very well could be wrong

I could make a fool out of myself

that's okay. because that's markets and I will take the data and learn and improve

plus, I've got a lot of how we even got to this point right

but, this Clarity Act has everyone once again tinking new paradigm. The idea behind it does feel like that.

But crypto is mostly useless still. The risk across the global economy and geopolitical landscape is far too great at the moment

SPX Micro-EW Counts

• The red diagonal still looks good

$BTC catalyst tomorrow

If the Senate CLARITY Act vote goes well, Bitcoin could get a strong relief rally as regulatory uncertainty starts to clear.

Stocks I’m watching for a crypto bounce: $MSTR $MARA $HUT $IREN $HIVE $RIOT $KEEL $COIN $GLXY $HOOD

Still a macro-heavy week, so I’d rather see confirmation than chase.

We are adding SK Hynix to the portfolio at 4x 2027 estimated earnings. This is the most egregious misevaluation in the market across all sector. I see +175% upside in the Korean line to KRW 500,000/share. Memory and the speed of data flow is the bottleneck of AI data systems and the centre of gravity is moving towards memory. SK Hynix is the absolute tech leader in this space and it is getting more complicated by the day. SK Hynix is now looking at how to renetwork all the data flows in the chip and to the chip using optical connectors. They are also looking at how to create more of a 3D chip. The complexity is increasing, and fewer and fewer players can manufacture these chips. This is not a commodity. It's why Nvidia is locking up partnership agreements with SK Hynix. Memory is the key to AI handling larger context windows and more data for inference. Pricing this leading AI memory company at 4x 2027 estimated earnings is a disservice. We need to get long here.

UPDATE: Memecoin Gems Longtem 💎

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$FARTCOIN

Saat ini $FARTCOIN sudah berada di range akumulasi dia, dan saat ini ? entry kita dekat dengan: Whales yang hold 10 juta $FARTCOIN

Saat ini saya masih yakin dengan perfoma $FARTCOIN bahkan sekilas mirip $USELESS setelah breakout, kembali ke support lalu pump.

Semoga $FARTCOIN bisa menyusul performa seperti $USELESS minggu lalu.

We come in under a full red signal. The S&P is -20 on cap weight and -64 on equal weight. The Nasdaq is -5 and -16. The Russell is -40 and -53 and has been red for a week. Every one of those is a confirmed bearish reading. Nothing on the board is green except energy and health care, and energy is the only one with real breakouts.

Two things happened over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after drone strikes on the pumping station Friday. That line runs from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea, and with Hormuz closed it was the only way to get Saudi crude out. It was carrying about 5 million barrels a day. There's no other route. Brent gapped up at the Sunday open and is above $107 this morning. The Oman meeting on reopening the strait was postponed with no new date.

Then Dario Amodei at Anthropic published an essay Saturday calling for the industry to slow the pace of AI development. Sam Altman and Elon Musk both said they agree with him. The AI trade got sold on it. Nasdaq

Interesting times in the wafer trade - Sumco can been conspicioulsy weak, while its listed subsidiary in Taiwan has been conspicuously strong. Something has to give...

Bitcoin Long Cycles

• Long cycles point should have a cycle trough in late 2026 or early 2027.

Equal-Weight SPX+NDX+DJI+RUT - Cycle Analysis

· To get more insights, consider the cycle composite of the equal-weighted average of SPX, NDX, DJI, and RUT returns.

· Hurst principle of commonality states that indexes move together following similar and/or the same cycles.

· This exercise attempts to average possible noise in cycle estimation for individual indexes and indicate what the “market” will do.

· The cycle composite includes all relevant cycles, from short to very long.

· This cycle composite conveys a similar message as SPX, with minor differences, which are well within the tolerances we should allow in analyzing cycle composites.

Crude Oil EW Update

• Technical strength argues for more upside, thus favoring the green count.
• My working assumption is that green count might evolve as a diagonal in which case wave 4 will overlap 1.