Hello and good afternoon, happy new week! Another week with Bitcoin chopping just below resistance, similarly to where we were last week. The market has dropped a bit over the past week, especially noticably so in Altcoins. That being said, not much has changed - we're still very much in the same position that we were in last week: right below the crucial resistance, and depending on how BTC reacts to it, we'll know how to react.
The below chart demonstrates this well. We currently face a bearish market structure, with lower highs and lower lows - but at the same time, Bitcoin has clearly shown that the seller momentum is running out. Each consecutive sell-off was shallower than the one before it, and price is now very close to making a higher high.
If we don't break this area now, we likely will on the next attempt. I've been noticing this for a while, which is why I've been accumulating coins over the past months. Slowly getting into the market; while the market built its strength.
The next few weeks will be telling though, and this coming week could be the one to start the next phase in the market. There are a couple of big moments on this weeks calendar, most notably the procedural vote for the Clarity Act, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Neither of these events necessarily have to spark a major move, but they certainly have the potential to do so. The Clarity Act has dominated headlines for months, with the market eagerly awaiting news as to what exactly is coming. Depending on the outcome of the vote tomorrow, we may get a sell the news event, or a strongly bullish reaction.
In similar fashion, the Interest Rate decision itself is not that important. The market has priced in a rate hike, which is projected to happen with about 90% certainty (According to CME's FedWatch tool). The real uncertainty is in what happens after that. When Warsh takes the stage, he'll talk about monetary policy (boring, I know) and his view of the future. Algorithms and traders alike will be reading that speech to figure out if there are more rate hikes to come, or if this was a one off event. That information is currently not priced in, and depending on how big the surprise is - the market could move violently.
It should come to no surprise to you that I don't really care about either of these events, but since they both carry the weight to potentially decide how Bitcoin reacts to the current resistance, I thought I'd put them on your agendas too. Worth keeping an eye on, but don't overconsume content around these events- as they can also quickly suck you into overtrading, fomo or fear. You know the drill by now.
So - this week might be the one where we learn where the next few months lead us. Either we have another higher low to form, or we're getting an early start to the bull market.
My plan in light of this remains simple: I will continue DCA-ing, and will add more aggressively on a higher low. Doesn't really matter if it forms after or before a break of the current resistance area - the bull market is coming either way.
The black & white lines are just two examples of what could happen from here. It's impossible to know - I'll just stick to my plan regardless of what the market gives.
In terms of Altcoins, I have not been doing too well recently. I chased a few coins, had a few suboptimal entries - and overall just haven't been on the top of my game. I closed PENGU this week as discussed, and will leave the other bags untouched.
It's important to recognize when this 'bad streak' happens, as being aware of it will help prevent you from making any further mistakes. I'm taking a step back from the Alts, letting the positions do their thing, and not paying too close attention to them for a while. The positions I have open at the moment are long-term positions, so there is no need to micromanage them.
HYPE looks good. ONDO looks good. JTO is holding where it needs to be holding, and so is PUMP. Until that changes, we simply ride 'em higher.
Short Conclusion
This article conveys the same message as the one I originally wrote, but I don't think it does it as well as the one that got lost. It is what it is. Will keep you posted as usual if I make any changes.
Sticking to the plan, as always.
Cheers,
J