DXY 4Y and 8Y Cycles
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$NBIS — $158.74
A waterfall that has finally reached oversold, support, and drying volume at the same time — the setup is better, the turn is not confirmed yet.
Support: $155–159, then $146–148
Holding $155–159 keeps this a washout that can base; losing it opens the July washout low at $146–148, and that break would end the starter thesis.
price closed Friday at $158.74, below all three moving averages — the 50-day at $217.84, the 100-day at $219.78, and the 200-day at $175.88. Those three values match chart's tags exactly, so there is no guesswork in them. The fall is now 47 percent from the $299.86 June high, 38 percent from the October high of $255.10, and 24 percent just since the October 12 breakdown. Two weeks ago the read at $202.74 was to wait, and the $197–200 support it rested on has since broken — the wait was right, and this is a different price now.
What makes this level different is exhaustion, not strength. RSI sits at 30.2, right on the oversold line. Friday traded only 13.5
$TSLA — Price is coiling around its moving-average cluster. RSI is neutral, accumulation remains elevated, and volume is contracting. This is a decision point, but direction has not yet been confirmed.
Support: $370 then $352
Resistance: $373, $380, $390
A breakout above $373 could open a move toward $380 and $390. Losing $370 would weaken the setup and put $352 on watch.
$NOW breakout to new highs, above every hourly line, RSI near overbought. Support: 149.74, then 144.54. Resistance: 160. Strong but extended, the 50-hour is the line to hold.
$CRWD V-recovery back above every hourly line, RSI overbought, volume expanding hard. Support: 253.71, then 236.93. Resistance: 260, then 270. Momentum strong, extended.
$PENG — A round trip from the highs has left price below all three moving averages. RSI remains soft, but accumulation has stepped up and is holding. A bounce attempt is underway, although the trend has not yet turned.
Support: $50, then $47
Resistance: $57.20 , $59.55 , $64.61
Reclaiming $57.20 is the first sign of improving momentum. A move through $59.55 would strengthen the recovery case. Losing $50 would bring $47 into focus.
Deployed another tranche of Bitcoin DCA just now, to bring my total exposure to a nice round number of units.
Autism had been ticking every time I saw the exposure close to, but not quite the round number - and with BTC now below $80k again, felt like a good time to alleviate that itch. Helps that price is below the lump-sum purchase I made at the end of September as well.
Remaining sidelined capital remains sidelined, waiting for the larger dip, if we get any.
Weekly update to follow later today.
Have a good week, gentlemen.

Bitcoin
a day ago
LONGInvested Capital
0.2%
Buying Price
80152$
Current Price
-
ROI
0.00%
Serbia:
Serbia’s parliamentary elections have delivered a historic political upheaval, with the student-led opposition securing a projected parliamentary majority and ending more than a decade of political dominance by Aleksandar Vučić. The result reflects widespread public frustration with corruption, institutional failures and entrenched political dogma rather than an unequivocal desire to realign Serbia with the West.
Although Brussels may welcome the prospect of this new government, the victorious movement has maintained Serbia’s opposition to sanctions against Russia and its longstanding position on Kosovo. This creates a potentially uncomfortable situation for the European Union, which could find itself dealing with a government more committed to institutional reform but no more willing than its predecessor to accept key European foreign-policy demands. Meanwhile, Vučić’s political organisation retains substantial parliamentary representation and influence within state institutions
Sunday Market Note 10/25/2026
We have been in the bearish camp before the market fully realized it and profited from those trades. Now that the bearish sentiment momentum is really gearing up, I think we should be looking for the other side of that trade. Not at a random spot, but at a place where price action “should” go lower but doesn’t. A news failure event that I think is likely coming. I think it would look like a gap down that closes that day green.
I am watching for charts to come into the 200dma (maybe under cut and rally UR). A few days of really bearish price action (gap down and go) would help that cause and wash out any bulls that are remaining.
This week is full of news events with Mega Cap earnings and FOMC on Wednesday. The following week, on Tuesday Nov 3rd, are the elections and I think we get that news failure sometime in that time frame. Remember, I CAN NOT see the future, so I am reading the tape, the internals, and sentiment and making a best educated guess.
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JustDario
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