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The previous gray count is back


$AAOI — $78.26


Third defense of the $73–75 zone today's low $75.50, now pressing the intraday MA cluster. RSI 51, basing.


Support: $75.50–76

Resistance: $78.50–80

Over $80 starts repair toward $85; under $75.50 the base breaks.

Market update:


Monday was a tech-led repair day, not yet a confirmed reversal. The Nasdaq gained over 1%, snapping a five-day losing streak, led by memory chips and semiconductors as beaten-down growth bounced. But major indexes faded from intraday highs, suggesting selling into strength and more sideways volatility ahead. This remains a difficult buy-the-dip, sell-the-rally market where both longs and shorts can get caught on the wrong side. The VIX slipped below 19, but the 10-year yield moved back above 5.1%, keeping pressure on risk assets. The real test begins this week with major earnings, including Netflix, Tesla and Meta, alongside more than 70 S&P 500 companies reporting. Last week’s question was whether AI capex can justify its cost; this week’s earnings may provide the answer. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and don’t mistake an oversold bounce for a confirmed trend reversal.


$AMZN $TSLA $GOOG $NOW $MSFT $NVDA $AAPL $COST


this are still holding well, most of the AI plays are st

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NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis

  • Spinning top (near-doji) inside previous bearish candle. What it means?
  • Initial buying after the gap up was met by selling pressure, signified by the long upper wick. "Dumb money" was buying after the violent bounce in the futures, "smart money" was selling. Although the spinning tops and dojis are indecision days in the middle, overall this is mildly bearish, awaiting next candle's confirmation.
  • About 55% and 45% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are below the 50D and 200D MAs, respectively.


TD13 Fires on BTCUSD Daily: Is This The Moment Before Reversal?


A TD13 (Tom DeMark Sequential 13) is a technical indicator designed to identify potential trend exhaustion and reversal points.


It can signal that an existing trend is becoming vulnerable to a reversal, even when price momentum still appears strong.


  • TD13 Sell: Appears after an extended advance. Signals potential buying exhaustion, increasing the probability of a bearish reversal or meaningful correction.
  • TD13 Buy: Appears after an extended decline. Signals potential selling exhaustion, increasing the probability of a bullish reversal or meaningful recovery.


What makes a TD13 significant?


Unlike a traditional overbought/oversold oscillator, TD Sequential measures a specific sequence of price behavior. Its Countdown phase reaches 13 when enough qualifying bars have occurred following a Setup.


A TD13 can precede a sharp reversal, but it can also produce a temporary consolidation, a modest countertrend move, or no reversal at all.


UPD

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Do you want to do a live session to discuss the proxy and the consequences on the possible merger announcement?

I'll do a poll for possible timing, please participate, and also post your questions so I can prepare.

AI data center stocks got hammered last week. CoreWeave fell about 25%. The cost of insuring its debt against default, through credit default swaps, climbed past 11% a year. Its bonds sold off until they yielded close to 15%. A hot inflation report raised the odds of another rate hike, and the companies that borrow to build data centers took the worst of it.

While that was happening, two executives at Applied Digital (APLD) were buying. Applied Digital builds AI data centers in North Dakota and leases them to tenants that include CoreWeave. On Friday, the day the stock fell 11.5%, President Jason Zhang bought 300,000 shares at $18.86, about $5.7M. CEO and Chairman Wes Cummins bought 55,803 shares at $18.04, a penny under the close. It's his first open-market buy since 2023.

The stock finished the week at $18.05, down 24%. Two of the people with the best view of Applied Digital's tenants and its debt put $6.7M into it on the worst day of the selloff.


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JustDario

JustDario

@JustDario

Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, angel investor, and finance veteran with over a decade of experience in trading, securities structuring, derivatives, and fintech in Europe and Asia. My focus is on data-driven analysis of macro and stocks to identify investment opportunities, especially asymmetric ones. My public research is available on justdario.com.

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