Inside the mind of the top investors

Margin Debt tops lead SPX tops.

Margin Debt made a lower high in September.

We will see whether October data stays below the high, creating a negative divergence. If so, it would be bearish.

SPX vs McClellan Summation Index (MCC SI)

MCC SI, the trend indicator, curled up, but it did not help SPX.

A red flag? I suspect that the MCC SI will curl down after a bounce.

NYSE Common Stock Advance-Decline Line is bouncing.

It does look like a bear flag, though.

SPX Cycle Targets

· Reminder: Cycle price projections are fully met about 70% of the time. Directional accuracy (e.g., approaching but not fully reaching the target) extends to 80-90%.

· SPX has 19td and 60td targets below 7600, as shown in the chart.

· If it continues down toward these targets early this week, it may also generate an 80td cycle target below these targets.

· However, if the 60td target is not reached this week, the bounce that I expect will likely invalidate it; This does not have much impact as the 19td overlaps it and will be much harder to invalidate.

Spinning Top Candlestick

· Many mistakenly think that Spinning Top is a bearish pattern, perhaps because of the word “top” in it.

· In isolation, it is essentially a neutral/hesitation/indecision pattern; Per Bulkowski, spinning tops reverse the prior trend only about 50% of the time (a coin flip).

· A spinning top candlestick is a short‑body candle with long upper and lower wicks, signaling market indecision and potential trend reversal or continuation depending on context

· While Investopedia does not have a dedicated “spinning top” entry, its candlestick charting guide explains that each candlestick is defined by open, high, low, and close prices. A spinning top is a specific variation where the real body is very small (open and close are nearly equal) and is flanked by long wicks on both sides. This shape shows that during the period, price moved significantly in both directions but ended near the starting level.

· How it forms

· Small body: Open and close prices are almost the same. Lon

Commitment of Traders - NASDAQ 100

NDX Technical Analysis

· I warned about the Spinning Top (almost a Shooting Star candle) on 5 October; it was a yellow/red flag in combination with being well above the upper Keltner channels and a weakening Bullish Percentage Index and Up-Down Percentage.

· I mentioned to expect at least revisiting the middle Keltner, and possibly lower.

· Subsequently, the NDX hit the lower Keltner channel and crossed below the 100D MA.

· Notice also that the NDX/VXN ratio (VXN is NDX VIX) exhibited a negative divergence at that spinning top, which was another bearish sign (see the lower panel); see also the early 2026 negative divergence in the NDX/VIX ratio.

· When NDX/VXN spikes above the upper Keltner channel, it usually quickly returns back inside the Keltner channel, visiting either the middle or the lower Keltner channel; A mirror image reaction happens when the NDX/VXN ratio spikes below the lower Keltner channel.

· The circles in the lower panel indicate spikes of the ratio below the lower Keltner

Long term

Massive spike in VIX - looks like it is OPEX drivevn rather than a real problem