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JustDario - Portfolio Update (31st October)
NQ Update
- I do not have a good count for the drop from the Wed high spike, but I marked the typical target for black wave i, or brown micro-1, though there are no signs of bottoming yet
With sound this time! Market overview: US, UK and German treasury bonds and Natural Gas
My humble apologies, I'm still struggling with the technical issues while uploading video content. I uploaded this video, with the sound fixed a few hours after the mute one, but then didn't hit the "publish" button... 😔 Thankfully, the content of the video didn't go obsolete; in fact, the prices of US, UK and German treasuries are all slightly higher this week. and the recommended long-term trade (consistent with algorithmic trend following) is to short these securities.
Tuesday's message, again:
In today's video I discuss the technical picture on US 10-year Treasury Note, British Gilt, German Bund as well as Natural Gas. The treasuries are definitely in a strong, sustained bear market and most investors who likely have significant long exposure to these markets (through their pension plans and other investment schemes) should definitely hold some short exposure. The bear market is in an upward correc
How to avoid concentration in AI-related mega-cap: play the S&P 500 equal weight
Gold vs US 2 years yield was the signal.
On the 22nd of October we made the following point:
"Watch the US 2-Yr yield. If it stays stickier than nominal dips suggest, expect continuing pressure on both precious metals and high-beta tech equities."
Gold continues to come under pressure as well as high tech equities.
The warning was given.
Given the significant weight of the TECH sector. We agree with Bond maverick Jeffrey Gundlach. If you want to play "defense" play the S&P 500 equal weight
Here's the performance comparison using VOO (S&P 500) and RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight), as of the Oct 29, 2026 close:
Period | S&P 500 (VOO) | Equal Weight (RSP) |
|---|---|---|
1 Month | +0.92% | +5.78% |
3 Month | +1.57% | +1.35% |
6 Month | +6.76% | +8.49% |
YTD | +12.58% | +14.09% |
1 Year | +13.13% | +17.34% |
Key takeaways:
- Equal weight has outperformed over the past year (+17.3% vs +13.1%), indicating broader market participation rather than mega-cap leadership.
- The gap narrowed over the s
This could take everything down with it.
WALL STREET'S AI BOOM IS SHOWING CRACKS!
Fresh concerns over AI spending have rattled technology shares. Investors are questioning whether enormous investment commitments will deliver the expected returns. What happens to financial markets if the AI boom stops justifying its extraordinary costs?
Good Morning!
Friday Market Outlook — Volatility, Key Levels & What I’m Watching
We could see another volatile session today. This has been one of the most challenging earnings periods in recent history, with disappointing reactions to several major earnings reports adding pressure to an already fragile market. The crypto hack and subsequent Bitcoin weakness have further increased risk aversion, while the macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavourable.
However, I want everyone to look beyond the headlines and focus on what the market is actually doing.
1. Is the broader market breaking down?
For now, I still consider the market range-bound rather than being in a confirmed broader downtrend. One important level I am watching is $SPY $755 on a closing basis.
If SPY closes below $755, particularly with expanding selling pressure, that could signal a more significant deterioration in market structure and change my outlook.
On the other hand, if the market holds above its recent lows, we could see a
There are some stocks , they take time.
eg. HPL Electric, Bajel Project( recently secured 1500 Cr order), Mahindra Grs, Vedanta gr etc...these stocks will take time. They are not such type of stocks that start running soon. They are actually hold for 3-5 yrs....
No one can time the market. When they will run, why it is not moving even after good result, nothing works , untill market likes it. So don't try to find reason why your stock which declared good result and still not moving up.
Jab market ko chalana hota hai, 2% circuit main bhi 10-20X ho jayega, aur nahi chalana hai, to P/E 5 hai to bhi nahi chalega.....So stop reasoning.....why that is running and why ur stock is not running.
There are no answers for such questions.
There is never 2+2= 4. If it is like that then anyone can create wealth. Due to the unpredictability of the market, not all can make money. It is not easy to make money in market.
You can't use same rationale to buy stocks, and still not all will give same return. Th
Bitcoin Cycle Analysis Update After the Afternoon Mini-Crash
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies plunge on reports of a significant security issue at Binance.
How come that news almost always follows the cycles?
Small Caps flipping the trend bullish
For those being patient this is where we can finally start to see some movement again. The 3 month bleedout wasn't fun and liquidity leaving to go into hedges/bonds/indexes didn't help it either. But one thing about high beta stocks is once they get going they start to become a lot of fun to trade.
In hindsight that was a pretty clean breakoutdown and trendreversal but the market previously was rebounding hard on on those dips so it looked like a dip until it wasn't.
Seeing the S&P 500 slow down and seeing the RUT/IWM ramp up will make Q4 a chance to outperform the S&P 500 and start getting some more aggressive gains. Just have to be patient and still want to see some confirmation or follow through after flipping the SuperTrend back to a buy.
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Rajeev Desai
@Rajeev Desai
In Indian stock market for over 30 Yrs. Not SEBI registered or not registered anywhere in the world. AS PER SEBI GUIDELINES-- I CAN'T GIVE BUY/SELL/HOLD CALLS. I CAN'T GIVE TARGETS. I want to write that , this is a mentorship platform. If you want to buy stock I discuss, do it at YOUR OWN RISK. For any queries to this site, Silce, write here, contact@slice-app.io
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JustDario
@JustDario
Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, angel investor, and finance veteran with over a decade of experience in trading, securities structuring, derivatives, and fintech in Europe and Asia. My focus is on data-driven analysis of macro and stocks to identify investment opportunities, especially asymmetric ones. My public research is available on justdario.com.
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