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I checked few charts and sharing some levels below. I will keep changing more and will share later


$META closed $614.99, holding the $600-611 support cluster after a $610.13 low, but still below all its moving averages with RSI near 33. Oversold bounce off support, not a trend repair. Reclaim $630 restores the read.


$BTC near $77,000 Friday, below its 5, 20, and 50-day averages but still above the 100-day near $76,155, with RSI near 34 and MACD negative. Oversold, sitting on its shelf. A break below the Keltner lower near $74,639 breaks it.


$TSLA closed inside $386-401, above all its moving averages, with RSI in the mid-50s and relative strength vs $SPX turning back up. The zone held Friday. A close below $386 breaks the read.


$HOOD closed $84.99, down 7.2% Friday, below all its moving averages with RSI near 29. Oversold after an $82.00 low, but oversold is not repaired. Reclaiming the 200-day near $92.59 is the first repair step.


$COIN closed $143.54, down 10.6% Friday after its Q3 print,

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Bitcoin Closes October w Bearish Engulfing Pattern


These are more often than not reversal signals. However, they can come ahead of a "top". That said, I more so mean a cyclical top. We've already done that, so perhaps this is plenty for pushing some extreme downside.


I believe we have a bullish start to November, to add confusion and create some upside wick. Not a huge move.


As long as no new highs are made, this is the final nested 1-2 before one of the biggest drops in Bitcoin ever


The bearish engulfing happened at the monthly Bollinger Band basis, which was tapped twice and proven as resistance. A move down to the lower BB while the bands expand would likely support disastrous down-move. In fact, this is the primary signal that has told me this was going to be huge all along. Tons of energy built up.


The LMACD looks like it wants to diverge lower, not crossover. the Stochastic is being rejected by a key bull market barrier level


Price looks to be retesting the underside of a long-term up

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NQ Update

  • I do not have a good count for the drop from the Wed high spike, but I marked the typical target for black wave i, or brown micro-1, though there are no signs of bottoming yet

With sound this time! Market overview: US, UK and German treasury bonds and Natural Gas

My humble apologies, I'm still struggling with the technical issues while uploading video content. I uploaded this video, with the sound fixed a few hours after the mute one, but then didn't hit the "publish" button... 😔 Thankfully, the content of the video didn't go obsolete; in fact, the prices of US, UK and German treasuries are all slightly higher this week. and the recommended long-term trade (consistent with algorithmic trend following) is to short these securities.

Tuesday's message, again:

In today's video I discuss the technical picture on US 10-year Treasury Note, British Gilt, German Bund as well as Natural Gas. The treasuries are definitely in a strong, sustained bear market and most investors who likely have significant long exposure to these markets (through their pension plans and other investment schemes) should definitely hold some short exposure. The bear market is in an upward correc

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How to avoid concentration in AI-related mega-cap: play the S&P 500 equal weight

Gold vs US 2 years yield was the signal.

On the 22nd of October we made the following point:

"Watch the US 2-Yr yield. If it stays stickier than nominal dips suggest, expect continuing pressure on both precious metals and high-beta tech equities."

Gold continues to come under pressure as well as high tech equities.

The warning was given.

Given the significant weight of the TECH sector. We agree with Bond maverick Jeffrey Gundlach. If you want to play "defense" play the S&P 500 equal weight

Here's the performance comparison using VOO (S&P 500) and RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight), as of the Oct 29, 2026 close:

Period

S&P 500 (VOO)

Equal Weight (RSP)

1 Month

+0.92%

+5.78%

3 Month

+1.57%

+1.35%

6 Month

+6.76%

+8.49%

YTD

+12.58%

+14.09%

1 Year

+13.13%

+17.34%


Key takeaways:

  • Equal weight has outperformed over the past year (+17.3% vs +13.1%), indicating broader market participation rather than mega-cap leadership.
  • The gap narrowed over the s
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This could take everything down with it.


WALL STREET'S AI BOOM IS SHOWING CRACKS!


Fresh concerns over AI spending have rattled technology shares. Investors are questioning whether enormous investment commitments will deliver the expected returns. What happens to financial markets if the AI boom stops justifying its extraordinary costs?


Good Morning!


Friday Market Outlook — Volatility, Key Levels & What I’m Watching


We could see another volatile session today. This has been one of the most challenging earnings periods in recent history, with disappointing reactions to several major earnings reports adding pressure to an already fragile market. The crypto hack and subsequent Bitcoin weakness have further increased risk aversion, while the macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavourable.


However, I want everyone to look beyond the headlines and focus on what the market is actually doing.


1. Is the broader market breaking down?


For now, I still consider the market range-bound rather than being in a confirmed broader downtrend. One important level I am watching is $SPY $755 on a closing basis.


If SPY closes below $755, particularly with expanding selling pressure, that could signal a more significant deterioration in market structure and change my outlook.


On the other hand, if the market holds above its recent lows, we could see a

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JustDario

JustDario

@JustDario

Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, angel investor, and finance veteran with over a decade of experience in trading, securities structuring, derivatives, and fintech in Europe and Asia. My focus is on data-driven analysis of macro and stocks to identify investment opportunities, especially asymmetric ones. My public research is available on justdario.com.

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