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Even for a rolling investor (whose returns are also driven by mark-to-market spread moves), initial spreads explain nearly half of 5yr forward returns.

Why it is true (even for a rolling/MTM investor) Credit excess returns for a rolling investor (constant-maturity index style, or someone continuously reinvesting as bonds mature/roll) can be decomposed roughly as:

Excess return≈ Carry (spread income) - Duration x ΔSpread+other (defaults, convexity, etc.)

• The carry term is directly tied to the level of spreads.
• The mark-to-market term comes from spread changes. Spreads are mean-reverting over multi-year horizons, so the starting level strongly influences both the path of subsequent spreads and the expected direction/magnitude of MTM moves.

The starting points matter:

• Starting from wide spreads → high ongoing carry + higher probability of subsequent tightening (positive MTM contribution).
• Starting from tight spreads → low carry + higher probability of subsequent widening (negative MTM contributi

Someone started building a long position on crude oil a few hours ago, the size is now getting large, and looking at how high CVOL is and how the skew is moving, that looks like an insider trade ahead of the weekend to me

Updated TLT:

The 3 Month candles take a while to unfold (obviously) but I do expect the lows to hold here:

SPX Short Cycles

• Looking just at dominant short cycles, we can see that 3 of them are rising and 8td and 11td will peak on Friday, to the extent their amplitudes and phases are accurately estimated.
• The strongest of the three, the nominal 40D (28td) cycle peaks around 12-13 Nov, but the cycle composite has a trough then. This is referred to as a straddled peak, because shorter cycles have troughs at that time and the longer cycles lost momentum.
• Notably, all three of these cycles have troughs at the end of months plus/minus.

Amazon expert takeaways

Equal-Weight Magnificent 7 - Cycle Analysis

Multiple cycles have troughs in mid-November, plus/minus.

It should be a good low for a swing trade.

Quick update on some key $BTC levels to watch.

Price is above weekly & monthly opens and working its way up towards the PWH - thats where I definitely think it makes sense to be hedged in case we see some hesitation. The quarterly open is also just a bit above that PWH so that entire area is worth considering for a hedge.

If we then switch to the AVWAP suite - we can see that price is now above the 3M rolling vwap after getting a bounce from around the 12M rvwap. The 6M rvwap is down near 72.3k and pretty flat at the moment. If we did find a rejection sooner than later and we head back down - that is where I will be looking.

Lastly, if we look at the key SMAs, we are heading up towards the 50 sma which is currently right above the PWH around 82k. If we manage to keep pushing, the 800 sma is up right around the PMH at 87k.

For now I am staying bullish on this move until the chart begins to give clear signs of weakness or rejection. Hedging our longs on a push higher makes sense but I am hap

Riot Platforms announced this morning that it leased its entire campus in Corsicana, Texas, for 15 years. The lease covers 910 megawatts and is worth about $28 billion over the term. That works out to roughly $1.8 billion a year in rent. If the tenant uses both five-year extensions, the total climbs to close to $54 billion.

Riot calls the tenant a frontier AI lab. It’s the same lab that leased Riot’s Rockdale site in August. Bloomberg reported at the time that the lab was Anthropic. Of the 1,151 megawatts Riot now has under contract, 1,101 are with that one tenant.

Riot built its Texas sites to mine bitcoin. Its total revenue last quarter was $181.4 million. Mining was 64% of that. At full rent, this one lease brings in nearly 2.5 times the company’s current annual revenue.

Riot supplies the land, the power and the pads. The lab puts in its own computers, runs them and covers the power bill. Rent is owed on all 910 megawatts whether the lab uses them or not. Delivery runs from September 2

Swinging here

The Compass Spins: Why the Midterm Blue Wave Supports Both Gold and Long Bonds

We hinted at a “put-call parity” strategy early in 2014 — long gold / long US Treasuries — as we argued in our conversation “The Departed”:

“If the policy compass is spinning and there’s no way to predict how central banks will react, you don’t know whether to hedge for inflation or deflation, so you hedge for both. Buy put-call parity, if there is huge volatility in the policy responses of central banks, the option-value of both gold and bonds goes up.”

The 2026 midterms have delivered something markets do not see every cycle: a clean Democratic takeover of Congress. Historic flips in Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, Ohio and elsewhere have turned what many expected to be a contested night into a decisive shift in the balance of power. For macro, the precise seat counts matter less than the constraint function that now applies to fiscal policy.

When the policy compass is spinning and there is no reliable way to p