S&P 500: Three dominant swing cycles
- Yes, there are other relevant cycles, but these three drive most of the multi-month price action.
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RTY Technical Analysis
· RTY broke below the red trendline and 200D MA in October, then bounced back above them toward the midterm election day, where it was stopped by the declining 50D MA.
· Now it broke down decisively below the red trendline and 200D MA again.
· It is now below the declining 50D and 100D MAs and also below the 200D MA, which could curl down soon.
· It is reasonable to expect that these three MAs plus the red trendline will represent a significant resistance for any RTY bounce.
· The blue channel is a so-called Elliott wave channel connecting the 2nd and 4th wave lows.
· On Friday, RTY stopped at the lower trendline of this channel; for additional bearish confirmation, I would like RTY to break below this channel as well.
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Rajeev Desai
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JustDario
@JustDario
Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, angel investor, and finance veteran with over a decade of experience in trading, securities structuring, derivatives, and fintech in Europe and Asia. My focus is on data-driven analysis of macro and stocks to identify investment opportunities, especially asymmetric ones. My public research is available on justdario.com.