Inside the mind of the top investors

The Compass Spins: Why the Midterm Blue Wave Supports Both Gold and Long Bonds

We hinted at a “put-call parity” strategy early in 2014 — long gold / long US Treasuries — as we argued in our conversation “The Departed”:

“If the policy compass is spinning and there’s no way to predict how central banks will react, you don’t know whether to hedge for inflation or deflation, so you hedge for both. Buy put-call parity, if there is huge volatility in the policy responses of central banks, the option-value of both gold and bonds goes up.”

The 2026 midterms have delivered something markets do not see every cycle: a clean Democratic takeover of Congress. Historic flips in Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, Ohio and elsewhere have turned what many expected to be a contested night into a decisive shift in the balance of power. For macro, the precise seat counts matter less than the constraint function that now applies to fiscal policy.

When the policy compass is spinning and there is no reliable way to p

Swinging here

NFLX EW Count

• It looks like NFLX is due for a bounce
• However, a more measured A would be per the gray labels
• Perhaps this might be a careful long scalp with a low-risk stop limit, and a more substantive swing position in May'27

Mixed market today

Profit-taking in "safe" sectors: Consumer Staples, Utilities, Real Estate, Materials

Stronger: Technology, Health Care, Industrials, and Energy

High Probability QIM short setup — Indicator State: Transition. Looking to hold until late November.

CYRX is testing the 8/7 Expansion Gate around $18.45 at a mature QIM Price/Time location, with the broader Elliott structure consistent with a B-wave termination ahead of a prospective C-wave lower.

The 65-minute chart has already progressed from Exhaustion into Transition. The move into the Expansion Gate produced a late MARS exhaustion sequence, and since that rejection PMARP has rolled sharply lower from the extreme zone, +DI has peaked and begun to contract, and −DI is starting to recover. That is the first clear evidence that the bullish regime is losing control.

The Daily chart reinforces the setup through a clear bearish PMARP divergence, while the broader advance is also failing to reproduce the earlier directional strength in +DI. That gives us multi-timeframe deterioration rather than a single lower-timeframe signal.

What is still missing is Early Confirmation. Bullish directional

WEEKLY GLOBAL LIQUIDITY UPDATE

Global Liquidity slipped to US$196.08 trillion in the latest data.
• The 3-month annualised growth rate eased to 5.1%
• 12-month growth slowed to 4.4%

Latest data show that headline liquidity slipped for a fourth consecutive week to US$196.08 trillion. Underlying liquidity, measured by the Shadow Monetary Base (SMB), increased to US$107.94 trillion, rebounding from recent weakness and moving above levels recorded over the previous three weeks. The collateral multiplier declined to 1.82 from 1.83, reducing some of the support that elevated collateral efficiency has recently provided to headline liquidity.

Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions)

• Latest level: US$196.08T
(↓ from US$196.11T last week; ↓ from US$196.38T two weeks ago)

• 12-month growth: 4.4%
(↓ from 4.6% last week; ↓ from 5.1% two weeks ago)

• 3-month annualised growth: 5.1%
(↓ from 5.2% last week; ↓ from 5.4% two weeks ago)

Interpretation Headline liquidity eased to US$196.08T. The 3-month annualised growth r

Equal-Weight S&P 500 keeps outperforming its Cap-Weighted counterpart.

The broader market has been largely OK; it is the NDX, specifically Tech stocks, that is dragging SPX down.

NDX Technical Analysis

NDX tried to break into the Keltner Channel at the open, but it then dropped to the 200D MA.

Can bulls "engineer" support at the 200D MA?

It is oversold, and NDX/VXN is also deeply below the Keltner Channel, which usually results in a bounce.

What Moved the Market Today?

What a reversal in NDX and SPX?

Everything was green at the open, but Techs/AI/Semis dragged SPX and NDX lower.

The broader market was OK, with solid breadth, except in Healthcare and Energy. The latter was overbought, and the drop in oil prices was likely the catalyst for its weakness.

Dow Jones and RSP (Equal-Weight S&P 500) were solidly green; the latter was up about 1%, still a rotational market, but Semis are solidly oversold and probably due for a bounce, despite still having a lower cycle target.