Bernstein CPO for Rubin Ultra. Good read!
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Trend reversal: Bitcoin takes a bearish turn
Through most of October, Bitcoin was trading above $80,000 level, but was unable, apparently to rise further toward its 2025 highs above $125,000. Today, Bitcoin is trading significantly lower, just above $73,500 after yesterday's negative close at $74,940 (CME futures).
In fact, yesterday's close tipped most of our I-System trend following strategies from long positions to short as you can see in the attached screenshot form the I-System application. It shows the CME Bitcoin futures price overlaid with I-System trend function (the red angular line).
When the trend function is along the top extent of the chart, the I-System judges that the market is in an uptrend and when it's along the bottom extent that the market is in a down-trend. The line in the sub-chart shows the strategy's performance since inception, in January 2024. The chart is also a fair reflections about the way a typical trend following algorithm trades.
It is interesting that
This is the article, free of ads, that I just published on my public blog: https://justdario.com/2026/11/the-moment-its-lenders-panic-softbank-will-quickly-collapse-under-its-massive-pile-of-debt/ SoftBank Group sharesβ¦
NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis
A strong bounce was expected after Thursday's near-washout session.
NDX has retraced Thursday's ugly black candle and stalled at the 200-day MA.
In the spirit of Keltner Channel pinball, the ideal scenario would be for it to dance around the 200-day MA and reach the middle Keltner Channel. That would also allow NDX/VXN to reach its middle Keltner Channel.
Liquidity Signal: π‘ YELLOW β IMPROVING
Reporting period: November 2β6, 2026
Previous signal: π‘ YELLOW β DETERIORATING
Assessment completed: Monday, November 9, 2026
U.S. dollar-funding conditions improved materially during November 2β6, reversing much of the deterioration observed throughout October. SOFR briefly reached 7 basis points above IORB on Tuesday, but subsequently declined to 1 basis point below IORB on Friday, while TGCR and BGCR also returned below the administered rate. The improvement coincided with a recovery in bank reserves and a reduction in the Treasury General Account, reversing part of October's liquidity drain. Crucially, the SOFR distribution shifted lower without significant widening, and unsecured funding rates remained stable.
The signal remains YELLOW, but its direction changes to IMPROVING. The latest observations suggest that the funding system has regained some elasticity, although one week of normalization is insufficient to establish that October's underlyin
Everyone wants to know if Thursday was the bottom. Itβs hard to call one while roughly 60% of stocks still sit below their 200-day averages.
Much of Thursdayβs drop was mechanical. By one estimate, ETF selling made up about 32% of the dayβs volume. Those funds sell regardless of price.
Trend-following funds have flipped short. They probably have around $50 billion left to unload.
CPI lands tomorrow on top of all that. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday the Fed will probably need to raise rates again, even after last weekβs tech rout.
I wonβt fault anyone for buying this bounce. Just be careful with it. This market remains very vulnerable. There could be another leg down.
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Rajeev Desai
@Rajeev Desai
In Indian stock market for over 30 Yrs. Not SEBI registered or not registered anywhere in the world. AS PER SEBI GUIDELINES-- I CAN'T GIVE BUY/SELL/HOLD CALLS. I CAN'T GIVE TARGETS. I want to write that , this is a mentorship platform. If you want to buy stock I discuss, do it at YOUR OWN RISK. For any queries to this site, Silce, write here, contact@slice-app.io
