Inside the mind of the top investors

Mixed market today

Profit-taking in "safe" sectors: Consumer Staples, Utilities, Real Estate, Materials

Stronger: Technology, Health Care, Industrials, and Energy

High Probability QIM short setup — Indicator State: Transition. Looking to hold until late November.

CYRX is testing the 8/7 Expansion Gate around $18.45 at a mature QIM Price/Time location, with the broader Elliott structure consistent with a B-wave termination ahead of a prospective C-wave lower.

The 65-minute chart has already progressed from Exhaustion into Transition. The move into the Expansion Gate produced a late MARS exhaustion sequence, and since that rejection PMARP has rolled sharply lower from the extreme zone, +DI has peaked and begun to contract, and −DI is starting to recover. That is the first clear evidence that the bullish regime is losing control.

The Daily chart reinforces the setup through a clear bearish PMARP divergence, while the broader advance is also failing to reproduce the earlier directional strength in +DI. That gives us multi-timeframe deterioration rather than a single lower-timeframe signal.

What is still missing is Early Confirmation. Bullish directional

WEEKLY GLOBAL LIQUIDITY UPDATE

Global Liquidity slipped to US$196.08 trillion in the latest data.
• The 3-month annualised growth rate eased to 5.1%
• 12-month growth slowed to 4.4%

Latest data show that headline liquidity slipped for a fourth consecutive week to US$196.08 trillion. Underlying liquidity, measured by the Shadow Monetary Base (SMB), increased to US$107.94 trillion, rebounding from recent weakness and moving above levels recorded over the previous three weeks. The collateral multiplier declined to 1.82 from 1.83, reducing some of the support that elevated collateral efficiency has recently provided to headline liquidity.

Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions)

• Latest level: US$196.08T
(↓ from US$196.11T last week; ↓ from US$196.38T two weeks ago)

• 12-month growth: 4.4%
(↓ from 4.6% last week; ↓ from 5.1% two weeks ago)

• 3-month annualised growth: 5.1%
(↓ from 5.2% last week; ↓ from 5.4% two weeks ago)

Interpretation Headline liquidity eased to US$196.08T. The 3-month annualised growth r

Equal-Weight S&P 500 keeps outperforming its Cap-Weighted counterpart.

The broader market has been largely OK; it is the NDX, specifically Tech stocks, that is dragging SPX down.

NDX Technical Analysis

NDX tried to break into the Keltner Channel at the open, but it then dropped to the 200D MA.

Can bulls "engineer" support at the 200D MA?

It is oversold, and NDX/VXN is also deeply below the Keltner Channel, which usually results in a bounce.

What Moved the Market Today?

What a reversal in NDX and SPX?

Everything was green at the open, but Techs/AI/Semis dragged SPX and NDX lower.

The broader market was OK, with solid breadth, except in Healthcare and Energy. The latter was overbought, and the drop in oil prices was likely the catalyst for its weakness.

Dow Jones and RSP (Equal-Weight S&P 500) were solidly green; the latter was up about 1%, still a rotational market, but Semis are solidly oversold and probably due for a bounce, despite still having a lower cycle target.

EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO REACHING EXTREMES. USUALLY RPESENTS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR RISK

We’re a few minutes from the open. Futures are up 0.5% on the S&P and 0.8% on the Nasdaq. Oil is down 6% after the U.S. and Iran spent the weekend in talks brokered by Qatar. U.S. crude is back under $100 at about $97.50. Brent is at about $106.60. I wouldn’t put much faith in the talks yet.

The ISM manufacturing survey comes out at 10, and Apple reports after the close. The midterms are tomorrow. Treasury lays out its borrowing plans Wednesday. The trading desks are cautious going into both.

The Nasdaq’s 200-day held Friday. QQQ got within $4 of it at the low and bounced. That’s the line in the sand for the next few days.

October ended with the equal-weight S&P up almost 5% and the index down about 1%. That’s the average stock’s widest monthly lead since April 2009.

Our momentum readings show the same split before the bell. The equal-weight S&P is at +59. The cap-weighted S&P is at -7.9, just below even. The Nasdaq is weaker at -15.2, while the Russell is positive at +12.2. Health care le

Food for toughts:

The equal-weight S&P just did something it hasn’t done since 2009: in October the equal-weight S&P 500 beat the cap-weighted version by 5.85 percentage points—the largest monthly outperformance since April 2009.

October’s other outliers:

• Consumer staples (XLP): The sector ETF rose roughly 10.9–11.3% (or about 11.6% in some sector measures), its best monthly performance since its December 1998 launch, and reached a record high. Individual names like Walmart posted their strongest months in decades (Walmart’s best since 1999, around +16–19%). This reflected a sharp defensive rotation.
• Semiconductors/chips: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and ETFs like SOXX fell sharply—on the order of 15–16.5% for the month in various measures—amid AI spending concerns, valuations, and other pressures. There was an extended losing streak (up to 8 sessions in some counts, the longest in years). Intel was among the worst S&P 500 performers, down roughly 43–45%. Many chip names decl