Yesterday was the biggest selling volume seen on BA since COVID. Just going to let this short run for as long as possible given how bad this looks
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Bitcoin: Dominant Swing Cycles
- Three intermediate-term cycles will soon point down together and should form a trough sometime in December 2026.
- Plus, the famous "4-year" cycle should also trough around the turn of the year.
- December is time to watch.
Ethereum Cycle Clock is Ticking
- The three dominant swing cycles are approaching their troughs in 1, 2, and 7 weeks.
- November may provide another long opportunity.
NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis
· NDX bounced from the lower Keltner channel, as predicted.
· NDX/VXN ratio below its Keltner reinforced the bounce idea.
· NDX crossed above the 100D MA, but is facing the 50D MA and the middle Keltner as resistance above.
· That may be a good place to pause and pull back some.
Please note that if the KOSPI ends up closing this second open gap, at that point I will personally consider giving it another try for a short on EWY
SPX Cycle Targets
· As suspected, the bounce in SPX invalidated the 60td target and even the 79td downside target.
· It does not have any unsatisfied upside targets.
· SPX has almost met the downside targets shown in the chart below, but they are, strictly speaking, still outstanding.
Hedge funds have greatly reduced exposure to AI hardware.
Not guaranteed but a positive indicator that the risk is to the upside.
QQQ/SPY has been outperforming over the last few sessions after putting in a bottom. Exactly what we want to see for a more conducive risk on environment
The Fed’s two-day meeting starts today. The decision comes at 2 p.m. tomorrow, and Warsh speaks right after. Our momentum readings haven’t moved much since yesterday. The Nasdaq is up almost 1% early. The AI names are leading, with Nebius up 11% and CoreWeave up 7%.
Russell Clark, a macro writer in England, compares compute to nuclear weapons. I think he’s right. Once a country has a handful of nuclear weapons, it doesn’t need more. U.S. policy has always been to have more anyway. Compute works the same way. Washington will never decide it has enough, which makes AI as much a national bet as a market one.
The country can’t have too much compute. A company can have too much debt. Musk said Sunday that more than 200 neoclouds will fail or get swallowed by bigger players. He said it right after SpaceX closed $40 billion in new debt. I think the strongest borrowers are happy to push the weaker ones out the window.
Clark also says you can’t pair-trade this group. When one name gets hit, they a
Tuesday Morning Market Briefing: Futures are flat after Monday’s rebound, with semiconductors leading while broader market participation remains narrow. $TSLA rallied, but $META remained under pressure. Oil is still elevated and bond yields remain a key risk, while the Fed meeting begins today ahead of tomorrow’s decision. All eyes are on $SOFI earnings this morning, followed by economic data and after-hours updates from $GOOG and $MSFT. The bounce is holding, but we need broader strength and easing macro pressure before calling it a sustainable recovery.
DXY 4Y and 8Y Cycles
ES reached the target for micro-A and slightly more, not sure how to count it yet, but it looks corrective
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