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Nasdaq NDX Weekly On The Cusp of Violent Breakdown

Chart 1

This shows the parabolic curve being violated and the neckline of a double-top formation

There is an evening star and doji at the top of the rally has price loses the parabolic curve.

The RSI is also breaking down.

Chart 2

Price is now below the weekly Bollinger Band during expansion. LMACD is turning down and risking a plug below a trend line

Chart 3

Ending diagonal is breaking down. A daily close below the 50-week MA is significant.

I will look at lower timeframes and look for ways to enter.

Realistically, based on these charts we want to wait for a close tomorrow afternoon. So the lower timeframes will let me see if there is a risk of a bounce tomorrow, or momentum is showing we will plunge more.

As I get lower and lower I can talk entries.

This moved fast and might keep moving fast, so some of you may want to market short if you know what you are doing and set up your own levels for stop losses and TP. You can do this if you don't

High Probability QIM long setup — Indicator State: Exhaustion.

SRTY continues to hold the broader bullish setup, with price trading around the 0.714286 QIM Price level near $25.2 after completing the recent corrective decline. The larger structure remains consistent with a prospective Wave 3 advance, with the current QIM projection targeting the $41 area if the reversal develops successfully.

The indicator suite is still best classified as Exhaustion rather than Transition. PMARP remains deeply depressed near the bottom of its range, showing that the downside move is stretched, but DMI still reflects bearish directional control: −DI remains materially above +DI, while ADX is around the low-20s.

Importantly, there is not yet a decisive expansion in bullish participation. Current RVOL is around average and has not produced the type of strong upside participation signal that would justify upgrading the state.

The next step is therefore to see whether the bearish trend begins to lose control.

Even for a rolling investor (whose returns are also driven by mark-to-market spread moves), initial spreads explain nearly half of 5yr forward returns.

Why it is true (even for a rolling/MTM investor) Credit excess returns for a rolling investor (constant-maturity index style, or someone continuously reinvesting as bonds mature/roll) can be decomposed roughly as:

Excess return≈ Carry (spread income) - Duration x ΔSpread+other (defaults, convexity, etc.)

• The carry term is directly tied to the level of spreads.
• The mark-to-market term comes from spread changes. Spreads are mean-reverting over multi-year horizons, so the starting level strongly influences both the path of subsequent spreads and the expected direction/magnitude of MTM moves.

The starting points matter:

• Starting from wide spreads → high ongoing carry + higher probability of subsequent tightening (positive MTM contribution).
• Starting from tight spreads → low carry + higher probability of subsequent widening (negative MTM contributi

Someone started building a long position on crude oil a few hours ago, the size is now getting large, and looking at how high CVOL is and how the skew is moving, that looks like an insider trade ahead of the weekend to me

Updated TLT:

The 3 Month candles take a while to unfold (obviously) but I do expect the lows to hold here:

SPX Short Cycles

• Looking just at dominant short cycles, we can see that 3 of them are rising and 8td and 11td will peak on Friday, to the extent their amplitudes and phases are accurately estimated.
• The strongest of the three, the nominal 40D (28td) cycle peaks around 12-13 Nov, but the cycle composite has a trough then. This is referred to as a straddled peak, because shorter cycles have troughs at that time and the longer cycles lost momentum.
• Notably, all three of these cycles have troughs at the end of months plus/minus.

Amazon expert takeaways

Equal-Weight Magnificent 7 - Cycle Analysis

Multiple cycles have troughs in mid-November, plus/minus.

It should be a good low for a swing trade.

Quick update on some key $BTC levels to watch.

Price is above weekly & monthly opens and working its way up towards the PWH - thats where I definitely think it makes sense to be hedged in case we see some hesitation. The quarterly open is also just a bit above that PWH so that entire area is worth considering for a hedge.

If we then switch to the AVWAP suite - we can see that price is now above the 3M rolling vwap after getting a bounce from around the 12M rvwap. The 6M rvwap is down near 72.3k and pretty flat at the moment. If we did find a rejection sooner than later and we head back down - that is where I will be looking.

Lastly, if we look at the key SMAs, we are heading up towards the 50 sma which is currently right above the PWH around 82k. If we manage to keep pushing, the 800 sma is up right around the PMH at 87k.

For now I am staying bullish on this move until the chart begins to give clear signs of weakness or rejection. Hedging our longs on a push higher makes sense but I am hap

Riot Platforms announced this morning that it leased its entire campus in Corsicana, Texas, for 15 years. The lease covers 910 megawatts and is worth about $28 billion over the term. That works out to roughly $1.8 billion a year in rent. If the tenant uses both five-year extensions, the total climbs to close to $54 billion.

Riot calls the tenant a frontier AI lab. It’s the same lab that leased Riot’s Rockdale site in August. Bloomberg reported at the time that the lab was Anthropic. Of the 1,151 megawatts Riot now has under contract, 1,101 are with that one tenant.

Riot built its Texas sites to mine bitcoin. Its total revenue last quarter was $181.4 million. Mining was 64% of that. At full rent, this one lease brings in nearly 2.5 times the company’s current annual revenue.

Riot supplies the land, the power and the pads. The lab puts in its own computers, runs them and covers the power bill. Rent is owed on all 910 megawatts whether the lab uses them or not. Delivery runs from September 2

Swinging here