The market is really reacting to this move higher in Brent futures. It's annoying. We went long energy with BP and Total but it's not enough to offset how much the tech names are down in the US, HK and Korea.
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There is an extraordinary component of the global financial system that receives remarkably little attention. It involves tens of trillions of dollars in financial obligations that do not appear in conventional debt statistics, are not generally recorded as ordinary borrowing on corporate balance sheets and yet must be settled or refinanced when they fall due. These obligations exist within the foreign-exchange derivatives market, principally through foreign-exchange swaps, forwards and currency swaps. They are used every day by major international banks, pension funds, insurance companies, investment managers and multinational corporations.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, outstanding dollar-payment obligations associated with these instruments exceeded $80 trillion in its landmark 2022 analysis. To appreciate the magnitude of that figure, it was substantially larger than the entire annual output of the United States, China and the European Union combined. Yet most
$DAL - Survived through earnings, and dark pool and unusual options activity is making it look like it wants to push into the $100 range. Right now there's massive upside call activity with Decemeber expirations at $87.5 and $95. The chart looks good, the flow is aggressively bullish, and going into Q4 travel season with the potential impact of gas prices coming down could setup for a nice move. Still keep a stop loss because if this is not the bottom right here then will cut and find something else that can hold it better.
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
14 hours ago
LONGInvested Capital
7%
Buying Price
78.96$
Current Price
-
Take Profit
95.02$
Stop Loss
73.79$
ROI
0.00%
Wafer stocks have been pulverised with other AI names... and yet data is still good. Formosa Sumco monthly data is rising strongly, and the divergence with Sumco is getting wider...
hidden bull divv on BTC suggests this is subwave 4. Probably pops up to 96k over the coming days. That will complete the corrective structure.
Good morning!
Markets are mixed ahead of tonight’s key earnings. $SPCX gave AI compute stocks some breathing room yesterday, but now $META needs to deliver to help these gains hold. Otherwise, we could see the rally sold into at higher levels.
Bullish LEAPS activity is picking up in $NVDA and $INTC. With many stocks down 40–60% from recent highs, this could be a time to start researching selective accumulation opportunities like $CRDO $MRVL $NBIS $AVGO $MU. High-beta names like $CIFR $POET $BB $JOBY $SMR $TE $QS $KEEL look interesting for those comfortable with the risk, while $AMZN and $GOOG remain attractive compounder candidates.
If you joined me in the $NVDA $220 calls expiring today, consider taking profits on the morning pop—expiration-day options carry significant risk.
I’ll keep monitoring key levels this morning and share updates. Stay selective, manage risk, and don’t chase the rally.
Ask a question below and I will answer it tomorrow for you:
Long-term Gasoline Cycles
• The three dominant cycles indicate pricing pressures into 2028, then easing of pressure into the early 2030s.
• This outlook aligns with the inflation indicator cycles I posted a couple of times.
Where are Gasoline Prices Headed?
• Everyone is interested in gasoline prices and their impact on inflation.
• The two dominant cycles of gasoline futures indicate a pullback into Nov-Dec’26, then up into Spring of 2027.
EURUSD Cycles
It looks like multiple cycles troughed, so maybe a multi-month bounce may be in play.
NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis – A Follow-Up
• After a deep oversold condition on Friday, NDX attempted to bounce but could not overcome the 50D and 100D MAs.
• Initial strength on Monday and Tuesday was met by afternoon selling, which produced two consecutive spinning top candlesticks, signifying indecision, i.e., a battle between bulls and bears.
• NDX remains stuck inside the ugly Friday’s candle and between the lower Keltner channel and 50D and 100D MAs.
• It needs to show another card, i.e., break the range.
• Somewhat surprisingly, the NDX/VXN ratio has not been able to bounce even to the lower Keltner channel.
Market Breadth
Remarkable market breadth on Tuesday lifted the broader market, including the Dow Jones and Russell 2000.
Even the NASDAQ had positive breadth despite finishing slightly lower, held back by most semiconductor and Magnificent 7 stocks.
Rotation again, for a day or two?
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JustDario
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Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, angel investor, and finance veteran with over a decade of experience in trading, securities structuring, derivatives, and fintech in Europe and Asia. My focus is on data-driven analysis of macro and stocks to identify investment opportunities, especially asymmetric ones. My public research is available on justdario.com.
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