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Market update:
Markets finished green for a third straight session, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all closing higher as semiconductors led the way. $MU surged nearly 6% and $AVGO gained almost 3%, keeping the memory and AI infrastructure trade in focus. However, the Fed’s hawkish hold pushed Treasury yields toward 5.05%, while Brent crude remained elevated near $115. My key line remains the 10-year yield at 5.2% — we are not there yet, but the cushion is narrowing. After hours, $MSFT gained on Azure strength, while $GOOG plunged roughly 9% despite strong Cloud growth, as advertising concerns and negative free cash flow weighed on sentiment. Tomorrow, I’m watching whether $GOOG can defend $315 and whether $META can reclaim $630 after holding above $600. Thursday brings GDP, PCE inflation and jobless claims before earnings from $AMZN, $INTC, $SNDK and $FET after the close. Great companies can still disappoint when expectations are too high.
$GOOG $288-290 hold it can bounce
$TSLA $397-
NDX & NDX/VXN, Keltner Channel Pinball
- This weekend, I called for NDX and NDX/VXN to bounce to at least the middle Keltner Channel.
- They got there. Now what?
- Possibly a pullback, followed by another attempt higher.
Yesterday was the biggest selling volume seen on BA since COVID. Just going to let this short run for as long as possible given how bad this looks
Bitcoin: Dominant Swing Cycles
- Three intermediate-term cycles will soon point down together and should form a trough sometime in December 2026.
- Plus, the famous "4-year" cycle should also trough around the turn of the year.
- December is time to watch.
Ethereum Cycle Clock is Ticking
- The three dominant swing cycles are approaching their troughs in 1, 2, and 7 weeks.
- November may provide another long opportunity.
NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis
· NDX bounced from the lower Keltner channel, as predicted.
· NDX/VXN ratio below its Keltner reinforced the bounce idea.
· NDX crossed above the 100D MA, but is facing the 50D MA and the middle Keltner as resistance above.
· That may be a good place to pause and pull back some.
Please note that if the KOSPI ends up closing this second open gap, at that point I will personally consider giving it another try for a short on EWY
SPX Cycle Targets
· As suspected, the bounce in SPX invalidated the 60td target and even the 79td downside target.
· It does not have any unsatisfied upside targets.
· SPX has almost met the downside targets shown in the chart below, but they are, strictly speaking, still outstanding.
Hedge funds have greatly reduced exposure to AI hardware.
Not guaranteed but a positive indicator that the risk is to the upside.
QQQ/SPY has been outperforming over the last few sessions after putting in a bottom. Exactly what we want to see for a more conducive risk on environment
The Fed’s two-day meeting starts today. The decision comes at 2 p.m. tomorrow, and Warsh speaks right after. Our momentum readings haven’t moved much since yesterday. The Nasdaq is up almost 1% early. The AI names are leading, with Nebius up 11% and CoreWeave up 7%.
Russell Clark, a macro writer in England, compares compute to nuclear weapons. I think he’s right. Once a country has a handful of nuclear weapons, it doesn’t need more. U.S. policy has always been to have more anyway. Compute works the same way. Washington will never decide it has enough, which makes AI as much a national bet as a market one.
The country can’t have too much compute. A company can have too much debt. Musk said Sunday that more than 200 neoclouds will fail or get swallowed by bigger players. He said it right after SpaceX closed $40 billion in new debt. I think the strongest borrowers are happy to push the weaker ones out the window.
Clark also says you can’t pair-trade this group. When one name gets hit, they a
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JustDario
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Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, angel investor, and finance veteran with over a decade of experience in trading, securities structuring, derivatives, and fintech in Europe and Asia. My focus is on data-driven analysis of macro and stocks to identify investment opportunities, especially asymmetric ones. My public research is available on justdario.com.
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