Inside the mind of the top investors

Liquidity Signal: 🟡 YELLOW — IMPROVING

Reporting period: November 2–6, 2026
Previous signal: 🟡 YELLOW — DETERIORATING
Assessment completed: Monday, November 9, 2026

U.S. dollar-funding conditions improved materially during November 2–6, reversing much of the deterioration observed throughout October. SOFR briefly reached 7 basis points above IORB on Tuesday, but subsequently declined to 1 basis point below IORB on Friday, while TGCR and BGCR also returned below the administered rate. The improvement coincided with a recovery in bank reserves and a reduction in the Treasury General Account, reversing part of October's liquidity drain. Crucially, the SOFR distribution shifted lower without significant widening, and unsecured funding rates remained stable.

The signal remains YELLOW, but its direction changes to IMPROVING. The latest observations suggest that the funding system has regained some elasticity, although one week of normalization is insufficient to establish that October's underlyin

Everyone wants to know if Thursday was the bottom. It’s hard to call one while roughly 60% of stocks still sit below their 200-day averages.

Much of Thursday’s drop was mechanical. By one estimate, ETF selling made up about 32% of the day’s volume. Those funds sell regardless of price.

Trend-following funds have flipped short. They probably have around $50 billion left to unload.

CPI lands tomorrow on top of all that. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday the Fed will probably need to raise rates again, even after last week’s tech rout.

I won’t fault anyone for buying this bounce. Just be careful with it. This market remains very vulnerable. There could be another leg down.

Market update:

Hopefully everyone is enjoying the weekend.

The market is testing conviction, patience, and risk management.

We are heading into a new week after four consecutive weeks of declines. The broader trend remains bearish, but one important level is still holding. The question now is whether buyers can defend it or whether another wave of selling takes us lower.

Thursday was a reminder of how quickly sentiment can change. The S&P suffered its worst single-day decline since April, with heavy selling volume. Friday brought some relief, but the bounce came on lighter volume. That tells us sellers still have the upper hand. Several beaten-down names, including $IREN, $SMR, $OKLO, $VST and $SPCX, $TSLA bounced sharply, but I would treat this as an oversold technical recovery rather than a confirmed reversal.

Here are the levels I am watching closely.

$SPY closed Friday at $735.36, holding above its 200-day moving average near $730.19. This is the most important line in the sand right no