InvestmentGuru

This Is a Rate Selloff, Not a Reason to Leave. why this is not the time to walk away.

I know this stretch feels heavy. The AI names have been sold for two weeks, the headlines are all about debt and spending, and every bounce gets sold. But step back and look at what kind of selloff this actually is. The demand side of this market keeps proving itself earnings are beating, guidance is being raised, order books are growing. What broke was not the fundamentals. What broke was the cost of money, when the 10-year yield spiked in early October and made every borrowed dollar more expensive.

That part is now reversing. The 10-year topped near 5.36%, failed to go higher, and has rolled over to 4.95%, breaking below its 50-day average for the first time in the entire climb. Yields peaking and easing into a midterm is exactly what happened in 2018 — and what followed was one of the strongest post-midterm runs on record, as the uncertainty cleared and the seasonal bid returned into year end.

So the

Market-

this is a tech-and-chips selloff, not a broad market one — the Nasdaq is down over 2% and the S&P about 1.3% while the Dow is essentially flat and small caps are holding up, with money rotating into defensives like staples and healthcare instead of heading for the exits. Semiconductors are the epicenter, with the SOX through that 11,000 floor and Lam's supply warning doing the damage, $META and $TSLA still dragging after their prints, and a $CRWV downgrade adding fresh pressure on the AI complex. The one offset is rates: the 10-year easing to 5.01% says this is repricing, not panic — jobless claims at a three-month low back that up. Into the close, the SOX close versus 11,000 is the tell, and $BE 's print tonight is the next test of whether quality AI-adjacent earnings can still get bought.

Good morning!

Markets are mixed ahead of tonight’s key earnings. $SPCX gave AI compute stocks some breathing room yesterday, but now $META needs to deliver to help these gains hold. Otherwise, we could see the rally sold into at higher levels.

Bullish LEAPS activity is picking up in $NVDA and $INTC. With many stocks down 40–60% from recent highs, this could be a time to start researching selective accumulation opportunities like $CRDO $MRVL $NBIS $AVGO $MU. High-beta names like $CIFR $POET $BB $JOBY $SMR $TE $QS $KEEL look interesting for those comfortable with the risk, while $AMZN and $GOOG remain attractive compounder candidates.

If you joined me in the $NVDA $220 calls expiring today, consider taking profits on the morning pop—expiration-day options carry significant risk.

I’ll keep monitoring key levels this morning and share updates. Stay selective, manage risk, and don’t chase the rally.