We come in under a full red signal. The S&P is -20 on cap weight and -64 on equal weight. The Nasdaq is -5 and -16. The Russell is -40 and -53 and has been red for a week. Every one of those is a confirmed bearish reading. Nothing on the board is green except energy and health care, and energy is the only one with real breakouts. Two things happened over the weekend. Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after drone strikes on the pumping station Friday. That line runs from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea, and with Hormuz closed it was the only way to get Saudi crude out. It was carrying about 5 million barrels a day. There's no other route. Brent gapped up at the Sunday open and is above $107 this morning. The Oman meeting on reopening the strait was postponed with no new date. Then Dario Amodei at Anthropic published an essay Saturday calling for the industry to slow the pace of AI development. Sam Altman and Elon Musk both said they agree with him. The AI trade got sold on it. Nasdaq futures are down 1.6% and chips are leading it lower. Whether any of them actually slows down is a separate question. The market isn't waiting to find out. Both warning lights are on. FNGD is above its 20-day, which is the signal to ease off tech. FAZ is above its 20-day too, which says something is wrong in the banks, and this time it fired before FNGD did. The VIX had its 8-day cross the 20 last week. The 10-year is 4.96%. Friday's rally didn't mean anything. Hike odds went to 86% on a hot core CPI and the market went up anyway. That was a day to sell into, not buy. Fed decision Wednesday, Bank of Japan Thursday, both expected to hike. The crypto bill gets a procedural vote in the Senate Tuesday afternoon and the odds of it passing are low, which means a yes isn't priced. We're defensive. Cash is a position. TZA is above its 50-day with room to the 200. If you own something you can't explain in two sentences, this is the week to stop owning it. Midstream is the exception. That still works when oil is $107.

Published Sep 14, 2026Updated Sep 14, 20265 min read

We come in under a full red signal. The S&P is -20 on cap weight and -64 on equal weight. The Nasdaq is -5 and -16. The Russell is -40 and -53 and has been red for a week. Every one of those is a confirmed bearish reading. Nothing on the board is green except energy and health care, and energy is the only one with real breakouts.

Two things happened over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after drone strikes on the pumping station Friday. That line runs from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea, and with Hormuz closed it was the only way to get Saudi crude out. It was carrying about 5 million barrels a day. There's no other route. Brent gapped up at the Sunday open and is above $107 this morning. The Oman meeting on reopening the strait was postponed with no new date.

Then Dario Amodei at Anthropic published an essay Saturday calling for the industry to slow the pace of AI development. Sam Altman and Elon Musk both said they agree with him. The AI trade got sold on it. Nasdaq futures are down 1.6% and chips are leading it lower. Whether any of them actually slows down is a separate question. The market isn't waiting to find out.

Both warning lights are on. FNGD is above its 20-day, which is the signal to ease off tech. FAZ is above its 20-day too, which says something is wrong in the banks, and this time it fired before FNGD did. The VIX had its 8-day cross the 20 last week. The 10-year is 4.96%.

Friday's rally didn't mean anything. Hike odds went to 86% on a hot core CPI and the market went up anyway. That was a day to sell into, not buy.

Fed decision Wednesday, Bank of Japan Thursday, both expected to hike. The crypto bill gets a procedural vote in the Senate Tuesday afternoon and the odds of it passing are low, which means a yes isn't priced.

We're defensive. Cash is a position. TZA is above its 50-day with room to the 200. If you own something you can't explain in two sentences, this is the week to stop owning it. Midstream is the exception. That still works when oil is $107.