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Good morning!


Big day for the market. Premarket is green ahead of today’s key Fed decision. This time, the market appears to be looking for a rate hike, and if we get one with the right guidance, we could see a strong upside reaction.

That said, the speech and guidance will matter just as much as the decision. The market can react very differently at 2 PM and again around 3 PM, so I’ll personally wait until roughly 3–3:30 PM for a clearer directional move.


My plan: if we get a strong upside move, I’ll look to take profits on swing positions where I have a good gain rather than chase.


For $SPY, a $752 put expiring Friday can be considered as a hedge, while the $770 call expiring Friday offers a higher-risk upside setup. Manage risk carefully with short-dated options.


AI stocks could have a big day if the Fed delivers what the market wants, and some small caps that showed strength yesterday could continue that momentum.


I’m not buying anything in the morning unless I see a very clear breakout

... see more

Are Ethereum Supports Cracking?

Β· ETH broke below the blue trendline, but bounced off the yellow support.

Β· Needs to break below it and below the pink line to confirm a reversal.


Bitcoin H&S Pattern?

-Β  As I showed on Sunday, the 4th wave may have completed, and cycles are also expected to roll over.

-Β  The 30 min chart shows a potential head & shoulders pattern, and BTC is testing the neckline.

-Β To confirm H&S, it needs to drop convincingly below the neckline.

-Β  The potential H&S projection should be below 70k.


$BTC under pressure ahead of Today’s Clarity Act vote.


The bill needs 60 Senate votes and remains a toss-up, with some Democrats seeking stronger restrictions on Trump-linked crypto ventures and some Republicans also undecided.


A positive vote could be a catalyst for crypto sentiment. A setback could add more volatility. Watching closely.

SPCX LONG - LOW PROBABILITY TRADE


This is a discretionary trade, outside the QIM system, hence the classification above.


It is consolidating at the point of control + IPO AVWAP - if it holds here then it is likely to move towards the value area high at 175 - using this mornings wick as my stop

Sold 100%
Stop Loss : 143.957 $
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

15 Sep

CLOSEDLONG

Invested Capital

9.7%

Buying Price

147.0$

Selling Price

144.0$

ROI

-2.09%

10-Year Yield and Crude Oil Are Moving Together


Although they aren't always correlated, 10Y yield and crude oil have been fairly correlated lately.


Since 10Y yields cycle (see my earlier posts) and the Elliott wave pattern points higher, will oil follow?


Watch this correlation; correlations come and go (see the bottom panel)


Commentary on the Clarity Act, Irony (Eye-rony), and the Eye of Horus (lol)


When reading this X post I just did. Try to think of it from the lens of this not being the market cycle top but still a very meaningful top/pivot moment


tops are regime changes


this very well could be


and that comes with a new way of thinking and behaving


will go from HODL


to I TODL you so


I think I need to have that trademark that


I want to keep reminding everyone that although I speak with confidence and the narrative/story/sentiment I am explaining fits the technicals and market moment, I very well could be wrong


I could make a fool out of myself


that's okay. because that's markets and I will take the data and learn and improve


plus, I've got a lot of how we even got to this point right


but, this Clarity Act has everyone once again tinking new paradigm. The idea behind it does feel like that.


But crypto is mostly useless still. The risk across the global economy and geopolitical landscape is far too great at the moment

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$BTC catalyst tomorrow

If the Senate CLARITY Act vote goes well, Bitcoin could get a strong relief rally as regulatory uncertainty starts to clear.

Stocks I’m watching for a crypto bounce: $MSTR $MARA $HUT $IREN $HIVE $RIOT $KEEL $COIN $GLXY $HOOD

Still a macro-heavy week, so I’d rather see confirmation than chase.


We are adding SK Hynix to the portfolio at 4x 2027 estimated earnings. This is the most egregious misevaluation in the market across all sector. I see +175% upside in the Korean line to KRW 500,000/share. Memory and the speed of data flow is the bottleneck of AI data systems and the centre of gravity is moving towards memory. SK Hynix is the absolute tech leader in this space and it is getting more complicated by the day. SK Hynix is now looking at how to renetwork all the data flows in the chip and to the chip using optical connectors. They are also looking at how to create more of a 3D chip. The complexity is increasing, and fewer and fewer players can manufacture these chips. This is not a commodity. It's why Nvidia is locking up partnership agreements with SK Hynix. Memory is the key to AI handling larger context windows and more data for inference. Pricing this leading AI memory company at 4x 2027 estimated earnings is a disservice. We need to get long here.

SK hynix Inc.

SK hynix Inc.

14 Sep

OPENLONG

Invested Capital

10%

Buying Price

176.8$

Current Price

-

ROI

0.00%

UPDATE: Memecoin Gems Longtem πŸ’Ž


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$FARTCOIN


Saat ini $FARTCOIN sudah berada di range akumulasi dia, dan saat ini ? entry kita dekat dengan: Whales yang hold 10 juta $FARTCOIN


Saat ini saya masih yakin dengan perfoma $FARTCOIN bahkan sekilas mirip $USELESS setelah breakout, kembali ke support lalu pump.


Semoga $FARTCOIN bisa menyusul performa seperti $USELESS minggu lalu.

Fartcoin

Fartcoin

14 Sep

OPENLONG

Invested Capital

4%

Buying Price

0.1407$

Current Price

-

Take Profit

0.5000$

Stop Loss

0.07000$

ROI

0.00%