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We come in under a full red signal. The S&P is -20 on cap weight and -64 on equal weight. The Nasdaq is -5 and -16. The Russell is -40 and -53 and has been red for a week. Every one of those is a confirmed bearish reading. Nothing on the board is green except energy and health care, and energy is the only one with real breakouts.

Two things happened over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after drone strikes on the pumping station Friday. That line runs from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea, and with Hormuz closed it was the only way to get Saudi crude out. It was carrying about 5 million barrels a day. There's no other route. Brent gapped up at the Sunday open and is above $107 this morning. The Oman meeting on reopening the strait was postponed with no new date.

Then Dario Amodei at Anthropic published an essay Saturday calling for the industry to slow the pace of AI development. Sam Altman and Elon Musk both said they agree with him. The AI trade got sold on it. Nasdaq

Interesting times in the wafer trade - Sumco can been conspicioulsy weak, while its listed subsidiary in Taiwan has been conspicuously strong. Something has to give...

Bitcoin Long Cycles

• Long cycles point should have a cycle trough in late 2026 or early 2027.

Equal-Weight SPX+NDX+DJI+RUT - Cycle Analysis

· To get more insights, consider the cycle composite of the equal-weighted average of SPX, NDX, DJI, and RUT returns.

· Hurst principle of commonality states that indexes move together following similar and/or the same cycles.

· This exercise attempts to average possible noise in cycle estimation for individual indexes and indicate what the “market” will do.

· The cycle composite includes all relevant cycles, from short to very long.

· This cycle composite conveys a similar message as SPX, with minor differences, which are well within the tolerances we should allow in analyzing cycle composites.

Crude Oil EW Update

• Technical strength argues for more upside, thus favoring the green count.
• My working assumption is that green count might evolve as a diagonal in which case wave 4 will overlap 1.

Microcaps back on my radar after a year

Not saying a full on microcap season has started but I agree with SpectreAI here with about a 54/100 readiness score which they label as "Stirring". It seems there's some activity again with on chain ETH microcaps and I'm back to watching them again.

My short list that I'm watching:

$M87 - Long time favorite, has shown a lot of strength recently. Probably my most confident play because of how long/known about it.

$SERV - Also showing some momentum again and seems to do well when it gets going.

$FUSE - One that has been around for 6 years and team is still active. Just one to watch and see if volume returns.

Patience Pays

This could still move up ultimately, so I am not gloating or taking a victory lap yet

This is just to show what a stoic mindset and relying on actual factual signals that can be observed on the chart

I saw the technicals suggesting the breakout might not be what it looks like

I waited

I stuck to everything

I readjusted my strategy and risk management to put myself in the best position. secured some profit, used said profit to re-short at the current level.

I caught a $2,500 trade in a couple hours

while securing profit, protection my position, staying objective, and even sharing all of this with all of you

I recognize I say and do things that people don't agree with or might not WANT to agree with

but that's why I do things the way I do

I need to show I am different and can be trusted

how can you do that? by consistently showing your true self and being transparent about what that is and how you operate

you see my skills

you see my intent

if I get it right - yay

if I get it wrong - you

BRENT with a strong rejection at the value area high

UPDATE: ALTCOIN GEMS FOR 2027

DENGAN KODE: 10

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