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US 10 years Treasury notes yield vs France OAT 10 years yield - 6 months chart

US 10Y is acting as the relative safe-haven bid amid France’s self-inflicted fiscal and political crisis—exactly what the dual-axis chart is illustrating.

Over the six-month window, both US10Y (orange) and FR10Y (blue) have been in a clear uptrend, driven by the common global factors of sticky inflation, elevated energy prices (Brent above $110 on Middle East/Gulf disruption), and “higher for longer” policy pricing. The acceleration from September is visible on both lines. The important story is the relative performance, especially the latest stretch: French yields have broken above US yields (FR ~5.076–5.11%, US ~5.00%) for the first time since 2013, while US yields have simultaneously eased on the day on safe-haven demand.

What’s driving the French side (the “woes”) France is the clear idiosyncratic underperformer in the G7/euro-area complex:

• 10-year OATs have hit levels last seen in 2002 and the OAT–Bund spre

ETF ZROZ vs ETF HYG - 3 months chart - An update from 2 days ago publication

Updated analysis (as of ~Oct 22, 2026 ~16:00 UTC): The short-term breakout in ZROZ has extended and strengthened.

Chart update

On the latest 1-hour chart, ZROZ (blue) has continued higher and is trading near 58.45, having pushed well above the prior bounce levels. From the early-October low near $52 (Oct 7), this is now roughly a 12%+ rally. The move has cleared the recent consolidation and is challenging/approaching the 50-day moving average zone (previously around the high $56s–$57 area). HYG (orange) remains relatively range-bound near 77.02, showing little of the same upside impulse.

This is a clearer short-term technical breakout/continuation than the Oct 20 snapshot. The vertical acceleration off the lows and the follow-through are consistent with an amplified duration-driven response to falling long-end yields.

Yield and price context

• 30-year Treasury yields have continued to ease (recent readings in the mid-

High Probability QIM short setup — Indicator State: Transition. Looking to hold until late November.

CYRX is testing the 8/7 Expansion Gate around $18.45 at a mature QIM Price/Time location, with the broader Elliott structure consistent with a B-wave termination ahead of a prospective C-wave lower.

The 65-minute chart has already progressed from Exhaustion into Transition. The move into the Expansion Gate produced a late MARS exhaustion sequence, and since that rejection PMARP has rolled sharply lower from the extreme zone, +DI has peaked and begun to contract, and −DI is starting to recover. That is the first clear evidence that the bullish regime is losing control.

The Daily chart reinforces the setup through a clear bearish PMARP divergence, while the broader advance is also failing to reproduce the earlier directional strength in +DI. That gives us multi-timeframe deterioration rather than a single lower-timeframe signal.

What is still missing is Early Confirmation. Bullish directional

Long PANW - HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE.

Earnings were great but they do like to smash it down after earnings. As long as it does not break below impulse gate in blue at 314 I'm bullish. on the daily We are in the QIM time zone where a reversal can be expected. and Price remains above impulse gate so still looks good to push over the coming weeks.

Why is Gold falling during a geopolitical crisis? 🧵
With Middle East tensions escalating, Brent Crude pushing $110+, and equities sliding into risk aversion, classic textbook macro says Gold should be skyrocketing. Instead, spot gold is sliding toward $4,100.
What is going on? The answers are in the bond market.
🚨 This is Stagflationary Risk-Off, Not True Risk-Off

• The Bond Move: Short-term US 2-Year yields are getting a safe-haven bid down to 4.76%.
• The Gold Trap: The geopolitical pressure is inflationary via the energy complex (Oil toward $100+ WTI). This keeps real interest rates elevated, acting as a massive headwind for a zero-yield asset like Gold.

💡 The Real Macro Take:
Gold is currently trading the bond-market reaction to economic data, rather than acting as an independent safe haven. Until we see a sustained collapse in real yields (not just a nominal flight-to-safety dip), a true Gold recovery remains capped.

How this impacts your portfolio: Watch the US 2-Yr yield. If it stays sticki

Gold vs US 2 year US Treasury Notes yield (inverted) - 2 months chart

Current levels and recent move (as of ~Oct 22, 2026)

• Spot gold: ~$4,085–4,100, down ~1% on the day and still well off the year’s highs. YTD performance is negative.
• US 2-year: ~4.76–4.78%, down several basis points today (and modestly lower over the past few weeks from late-September highs near 4.9%). The 10-year is also lower on the session (~5.07%).

Today’s concurrent decline in yields and gold is the short-term move the user is occurring against a backdrop of Middle East escalation (Houthi/Saudi attacks, oil pushing toward $100 WTI / $110+ Brent, Strait of Hormuz concerns) plus residual AI-related equity risk aversion and an upcoming jobs report. Bonds are getting a safe-haven bid (yields falling), equities are soft, and oil is bid.

Why this is only partial risk-off, not a classic gold-and-bonds rally

True risk-off usually sees both Treasuries and gold bid. Here gold is not cooperating, for structural reasons that have

Russia reports more than ₽500 billion invested in Far Eastern and Arctic development zones

Russia's Ministry of Transport reports that companies operating in preferential development zones, the Free Port of Vladivostok and the Arctic zone invested 502.6 billion rubles in projects during 2026 to date.

The reported breakdown is particularly revealing:

The market is really reacting to this move higher in Brent futures. It's annoying. We went long energy with BP and Total but it's not enough to offset how much the tech names are down in the US, HK and Korea.

$DAL - Survived through earnings, and dark pool and unusual options activity is making it look like it wants to push into the $100 range. Right now there's massive upside call activity with Decemeber expirations at $87.5 and $95. The chart looks good, the flow is aggressively bullish, and going into Q4 travel season with the potential impact of gas prices coming down could setup for a nice move. Still keep a stop loss because if this is not the bottom right here then will cut and find something else that can hold it better.

Wafer stocks have been pulverised with other AI names... and yet data is still good. Formosa Sumco monthly data is rising strongly, and the divergence with Sumco is getting wider...

hidden bull divv on BTC suggests this is subwave 4. Probably pops up to 96k over the coming days. That will complete the corrective structure.