Macronomics

Government debt vs primary balance, 2026 (% of GDP):

Approximate 2026 positions (IMF Oct 2026):

• Greece: debt ~136%, primary ~+3.4%
• Portugal: debt ~90%, primary ~+1.7%
• Ireland: debt ~40%, primary ~+0.8%
• Italy: debt ~138%, primary ~+0.9%
• Spain: debt ~98%, primary ~–0.2%
• France: debt 118.5%, primary –2.9%
• UK: debt ~102%, primary ~–1.2%
• US: debt ~127%, primary ~–3.5%
• Japan: debt ~200%, primary ~–1.5%

France remains an outlier on the primary-balance side relative to its debt level, while the US sits even lower on the primary balance. Exact primary-balance figures for every country are not uniformly published in the public DataMapper extracts; values are consistent with the October 2026 vintage and overall fiscal balances reported by the IMF.

US 10 years Treasury notes yield vs France OAT 10 years yield - 6 months chart

US 10Y is acting as the relative safe-haven bid amid France’s self-inflicted fiscal and political crisis—exactly what the dual-axis chart is illustrating.

Over the six-month window, both US10Y (orange) and FR10Y (blue) have been in a clear uptrend, driven by the common global factors of sticky inflation, elevated energy prices (Brent above $110 on Middle East/Gulf disruption), and “higher for longer” policy pricing. The acceleration from September is visible on both lines. The important story is the relative performance, especially the latest stretch: French yields have broken above US yields (FR ~5.076–5.11%, US ~5.00%) for the first time since 2013, while US yields have simultaneously eased on the day on safe-haven demand.

What’s driving the French side (the “woes”) France is the clear idiosyncratic underperformer in the G7/euro-area complex:

• 10-year OATs have hit levels last seen in 2002 and the OAT–Bund spre

ETF ZROZ vs ETF HYG - 3 months chart - An update from 2 days ago publication

Updated analysis (as of ~Oct 22, 2026 ~16:00 UTC): The short-term breakout in ZROZ has extended and strengthened.

Chart update

On the latest 1-hour chart, ZROZ (blue) has continued higher and is trading near 58.45, having pushed well above the prior bounce levels. From the early-October low near $52 (Oct 7), this is now roughly a 12%+ rally. The move has cleared the recent consolidation and is challenging/approaching the 50-day moving average zone (previously around the high $56s–$57 area). HYG (orange) remains relatively range-bound near 77.02, showing little of the same upside impulse.

This is a clearer short-term technical breakout/continuation than the Oct 20 snapshot. The vertical acceleration off the lows and the follow-through are consistent with an amplified duration-driven response to falling long-end yields.

Yield and price context

• 30-year Treasury yields have continued to ease (recent readings in the mid-

Why is Gold falling during a geopolitical crisis? 🧵
With Middle East tensions escalating, Brent Crude pushing $110+, and equities sliding into risk aversion, classic textbook macro says Gold should be skyrocketing. Instead, spot gold is sliding toward $4,100.
What is going on? The answers are in the bond market.
🚨 This is Stagflationary Risk-Off, Not True Risk-Off

• The Bond Move: Short-term US 2-Year yields are getting a safe-haven bid down to 4.76%.
• The Gold Trap: The geopolitical pressure is inflationary via the energy complex (Oil toward $100+ WTI). This keeps real interest rates elevated, acting as a massive headwind for a zero-yield asset like Gold.

💡 The Real Macro Take:
Gold is currently trading the bond-market reaction to economic data, rather than acting as an independent safe haven. Until we see a sustained collapse in real yields (not just a nominal flight-to-safety dip), a true Gold recovery remains capped.

How this impacts your portfolio: Watch the US 2-Yr yield. If it stays sticki

Gold vs US 2 year US Treasury Notes yield (inverted) - 2 months chart

Current levels and recent move (as of ~Oct 22, 2026)

• Spot gold: ~$4,085–4,100, down ~1% on the day and still well off the year’s highs. YTD performance is negative.
• US 2-year: ~4.76–4.78%, down several basis points today (and modestly lower over the past few weeks from late-September highs near 4.9%). The 10-year is also lower on the session (~5.07%).

Today’s concurrent decline in yields and gold is the short-term move the user is occurring against a backdrop of Middle East escalation (Houthi/Saudi attacks, oil pushing toward $100 WTI / $110+ Brent, Strait of Hormuz concerns) plus residual AI-related equity risk aversion and an upcoming jobs report. Bonds are getting a safe-haven bid (yields falling), equities are soft, and oil is bid.

Why this is only partial risk-off, not a classic gold-and-bonds rally

True risk-off usually sees both Treasuries and gold bid. Here gold is not cooperating, for structural reasons that have

BTC / Gold Ratio Cycles

Current reading (Oct 2026): ~20.2 ounces of gold per 1 BTC (or ~0.63 kg of gold)

Key Observations

1. Amplitude has increased — Early cycles bottomed near 3–5 oz; the 2024 peak reached 40 oz. The range has widened significantly since 2020.
2. Roughly 3–4 year rhythm — Troughs in 2018–19 and 2022–23; peaks in 2021 and 2024–25. This loosely aligns with the Bitcoin halving cycle, though the ratio also reflects gold’s independent moves.
3. Current position is mid-cycle — At ~20 oz, the ratio sits near its historical median (~10 oz) after the 2024 spike to 40 oz. It has roughly halved from the December 2024 peak.
4. Gold’s recent strength — The decline from 40 oz to 20 oz since late 2024 reflects both BTC weakness and gold’s strong rally (1 kg gold rose from ~$80k toward $130k+).

Interpretation

The ratio tends to expand sharply during risk-on BTC bull phases and compress when gold is preferred (risk-off or inflation-hedge demand). The current ~20 oz level is neither extreme nor cheap by

Bitcoin vs 1 kilo of Gold - 5 years chart

As of October 21, 2026, 1 Bitcoin (~$83,000) buys roughly 0.63 kg of gold, while 1 kg of gold (~$132,600) costs about 1.6 BTC.Current approximate prices:

• Bitcoin: ~$82,800–$83,100
• Gold: ~$4,120 per troy ounce → 1 kg ≈ $132,500–$133,000 (using 32.15 troy oz/kg)

This means 1 BTC ≈ 20.1 ounces of gold (or ~0.63 kg). The BTC/gold ratio (ounces per BTC) peaked near 40 ounces in December 2024 and has roughly halved since, as gold strongly outperformed in 2025 while Bitcoin lagged after its ~$126k ATH in October 2025

• 2024–2025: BTC/gold ratio hit a cycle high (~40 oz/BTC) around the December 2024 peak. Gold then dominated 2025 (~+60–70% YTD, driven by central-bank buying, ETF inflows, and macro uncertainty), while BTC was roughly flat-to-down after its October 2025 ATH. The ratio fell ~50% to the ~20 oz range.
• Recent (2026): Both have been relatively flat-to-soft YTD. BTC remains far more volatile; gold has acted more like a traditional store of value in th

ETF ZROZ vs ETF HYG - 3 months chart

Chart and price context

ZROZ (PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF) tracks ultra-long STRIPS with an effective duration around 25–27 years. That makes it an amplified pure play on long-end yields. On the 1-hour chart we shared, the blue line shows a clear acceleration higher after the early-October low (near ~$52 around October 7), with a vertical spike that breaks the immediate downtrend channel and recent consolidation. That qualifies as a short-term technical breakout/bounce from the recent swing low.

Supporting price action:

• Low near $51.97 on Oct 7.
• Rally through the mid-50s, with a strong session around Oct 15 pushing it near $57, then settling in the mid-to-high $56s.
• This lines up with the 30-year Treasury yield peaking near ~5.67% in early October and pulling back toward the mid-5.40s.

HYG (high-yield corporates) has been far more range-bound and slightly softer in the mid-to-high $76s, which is consistent with its much lower duratio

“FRANCE'S DEBT HEADACHE COULD SEND THE EURO BELOW $1.10 Raiffeisen Research warns that France's worsening fiscal outlook could push EUR/USD below $1.10. The euro trades near $1.1218, after hitting a 17-month low of $1.1112 last week. The key takeaway: France's fiscal troubles” - Bloomberg

During the European sovereign debt crisis (primarily 2010–2012, centered on the PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), the euro depreciated meaningfully against the USD amid rising break-up fears, contagion risks, and sovereign stress.

Historical EUR/USD Behavior

• 2010: Opened near ~1.43–1.45 and fell sharply to a low around 1.19 (June, amid the Greek crisis escalation). Year average ~1.33; closed near 1.34. This reflected early contagion fears.
• 2011: Peaked near ~1.49 (May) before declining toward ~1.29 by year-end as Italian and Spanish spreads widened and political/fiscal uncertainty intensified. Average ~1.39; closed ~1.29–1.30.
• 2012: High near ~1.35 early in the year; low around 1.21 in July