BTC / Gold Ratio Cycles
Current reading (Oct 2026): ~20.2 ounces of gold per 1 BTC (or ~0.63 kg of gold)
Key Observations
- Amplitude has increased — Early cycles bottomed near 3–5 oz; the 2024 peak reached 40 oz. The range has widened significantly since 2020.
- Roughly 3–4 year rhythm — Troughs in 2018–19 and 2022–23; peaks in 2021 and 2024–25. This loosely aligns with the Bitcoin halving cycle, though the ratio also reflects gold’s independent moves.
- Current position is mid-cycle — At ~20 oz, the ratio sits near its historical median (~10 oz) after the 2024 spike to 40 oz. It has roughly halved from the December 2024 peak.
- Gold’s recent strength — The decline from 40 oz to 20 oz since late 2024 reflects both BTC weakness and gold’s strong rally (1 kg gold rose from ~$80k toward $130k+).
Interpretation
The ratio tends to expand sharply during risk-on BTC bull phases and compress when gold is preferred (risk-off or inflation-hedge demand). The current ~20 oz level is neither extreme nor cheap by post-2020 standards — it sits roughly in the middle of the last two cycle ranges. Further compression toward the low teens would indicate gold continuing to outperform; a move back above 30 oz would signal BTC reasserting dominance.
