today should confirm the daily bull div for RSP. Breadth of the market looks to have bottomed. I'm open to this blowoff top that might be developing for wave 5, although I'm not convinced, given the structure of IWM which is impulsive to the downside. Both options remain on the table, next week should confirm which one it is!
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NDX EW Update #2
- This bigger leading diagonal is a possibility
- It is too early to rely heavily on it; it would be speculative, but good to keep in mind
Good morning!
Market is gapping up, but the macro backdrop is still not favorable. We need to see whether this strength can hold. Personally, I like using a strong morning gap after a catalyst as an opportunity to take some profit and then watch how the rest of the day develops.
Today’s close could have a big impact on tomorrow, with triple witching potentially bringing higher volatility. If we close above key resistance/SR zones, we could see further upside; if we close below them, a deeper pullback is possible. I’ll be watching closely and updating levels throughout the day.
$SPY levels
$761.20–$762.40 = key resistance
Above that, $766 could come quickly
Keep SL around $757
$CRDO
$167.90 is the key level. If it breaks and holds, I can see a potential move toward $200+ over the next few weeks. This would be a status-quo change, so I’ll be watching the confirmation carefully.
$APP
Building support around $322.35 with resistance at $334.44. Need a close above $334.44 for a bigger move higher.
MARKETS COMMENT - 17th September 2026
I just watched Kevin Warsh video a second time, just in case at 3am in the morning my brain was tired and I missed something. But no, I have not, because, as a matter of fact, he didn’t really say anything relevant, but…
Short AAPL - medium probability trade setup as price is in the golden pocket but no QIM timing for confirmation. looking to hold for a couple weeks
Bought 100%
Apple Inc.
16 Sep
SHORTInvested Capital
13.9%
Selling Price
315.3$
Buying Price
332.4$
ROI
-5.43%
Good morning!
Big day for the market. Premarket is green ahead of today’s key Fed decision. This time, the market appears to be looking for a rate hike, and if we get one with the right guidance, we could see a strong upside reaction.
That said, the speech and guidance will matter just as much as the decision. The market can react very differently at 2 PM and again around 3 PM, so I’ll personally wait until roughly 3–3:30 PM for a clearer directional move.
My plan: if we get a strong upside move, I’ll look to take profits on swing positions where I have a good gain rather than chase.
For $SPY, a $752 put expiring Friday can be considered as a hedge, while the $770 call expiring Friday offers a higher-risk upside setup. Manage risk carefully with short-dated options.
AI stocks could have a big day if the Fed delivers what the market wants, and some small caps that showed strength yesterday could continue that momentum.
I’m not buying anything in the morning unless I see a very clear breakout
Ask me anything:
Are Ethereum Supports Cracking?
· ETH broke below the blue trendline, but bounced off the yellow support.
· Needs to break below it and below the pink line to confirm a reversal.
Bitcoin H&S Pattern?
- As I showed on Sunday, the 4th wave may have completed, and cycles are also expected to roll over.
- The 30 min chart shows a potential head & shoulders pattern, and BTC is testing the neckline.
- To confirm H&S, it needs to drop convincingly below the neckline.
- The potential H&S projection should be below 70k.
Compute : The next $5 trillion AI infrastructure Supercycle
An investor framework for 2026-2027
$BTC under pressure ahead of Today’s Clarity Act vote.
The bill needs 60 Senate votes and remains a toss-up, with some Democrats seeking stronger restrictions on Trump-linked crypto ventures and some Republicans also undecided.
A positive vote could be a catalyst for crypto sentiment. A setback could add more volatility. Watching closely.
SPCX LONG - LOW PROBABILITY TRADE
This is a discretionary trade, outside the QIM system, hence the classification above.
It is consolidating at the point of control + IPO AVWAP - if it holds here then it is likely to move towards the value area high at 175 - using this mornings wick as my stop
Sold 100%
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
15 Sep
LONGInvested Capital
9.7%
Buying Price
147.0$
Selling Price
144.0$
ROI
-2.09%
10-Year Yield and Crude Oil Are Moving Together
Although they aren't always correlated, 10Y yield and crude oil have been fairly correlated lately.
Since 10Y yields cycle (see my earlier posts) and the Elliott wave pattern points higher, will oil follow?
Watch this correlation; correlations come and go (see the bottom panel)
