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Market update


today was a bond-market day wearing an equity-market costume. The 10-year spiked to its highest since 2002 in the morning and took everything down with it — the S&P fell 0.7% at the lows before a strong $39B auction brought yields back down and stocks clawed back to finish nearly flat, with the S&P closing at 7,801.77, down just 0.22%. But don't let the flat close fool you: small caps fell 1.3%, the average stock equal-weight lost 0.8%, and it was narrow megacap leadership doing all the work. The 2pm Fed minutes leaned hawkish — most officials see another hike as likely this year — so the ceiling on rallies stays in place until yields cooperate. After the close, $APLD printed a monster revenue beat $341.9M vs ~$116-135M expected with base rent stepping up on schedule, which is a second straight counterpoint to the deployment-pushout fears and gives AI infrastructure a positive backdrop into tomorrow. Watch the 10-year around 5.30%: below it the relief trade continues,

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NQ Nano EW Structure

  • I noted in the morning a highly overlapped NQ structure and how an initially corrective-looking pattern could morph into an impulsive structure; this happens often.
  • This is my attempt to count NQ as an impulse

US02Y B wave looks complete, strong move down now into Monday for C wave completion

SPX Technical Analysis

· We noticed some indications that the market breadth might improve.

· The number of stocks below the 50D and 200D MAs reversed the downtrend, which may indicate broader stock participation in the S&P 500, a net positive.

· SPX tagged the upper Keltner channel and formed an inverse hammer -> a pullback to the middle Keltner or more could be expected.

The Downside of What I Do


Unfortunately, I have been saying a few things:


Huge macro correction


Tons of massive cycles coming to an end all at>


Largest degree bear market ever in stocks


First secular bear Bitcoin


Metals take a hit at first


Oil goes nuts


Money pours into the dollar


Possible war


But what I didn't realize I might be predicting, was the fucking plague


The second death was confirmed. Russian citizens are freaking out and media is saying the gov is covering it up


The US is demand Russia provide intel and is in violation of global laws


This isn't a joke


Even if this isn't that BAD from a casualty standpoint, this could be that bad from a PANIC standpoint


Now, just like I was saying. If we have a stock market bubble, bonds breaking, metals already pumped, Bitcoin is weak, alts are dead... omg there was never any chance Bitcoin found a bottom


Now what happens is, the magnitude of the collapse is such a shocking VIBRATION, future cycles will likely be alters for some time, as volatility is so

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Cant help but feel the surge in mortgage rates is bad news for home builders...

PulteGroup, Inc.

PulteGroup, Inc.

6 Oct

OPENSHORT

Invested Capital

4.3%

Selling Price

116.2$

Current Price

-

ROI

0.00%

GDX/GOLD 195m looks to have bottomed and attempting to recover the cloud.

Trading Levels


$COIN $186 — Sitting right on the 200-day at $185, so this is a make-or-break zone. Reclaim $187 opens $192–195; lose $185 and $180–181 comes back into play. I want confirmation before adding. - Trading setup


$GOOGL $345 — Back above all major MAs after the flush to $335, with $344–345 now the key support. Hold that zone and $355 becomes the next target. The 200-day at $339 is the bigger line underneath. - My LT


$SPY $775 — Trend remains bullish above all EMAs, with momentum improving. $777.50–778 is the breakout zone; a daily close above $778 can open new highs. $762–766 is the pullback support area.


$SPCX $172 — Blue-sky breakout continues after clearing $170 with strong momentum. $175 then $180 are the next levels, while $164–165 is now the key breakout support. Don’t chase the premarket spike; let it settle and hold. - Trading/ LT


$TSLA $381 — Breakout confirmed above $375–376, with $386 next and $393 (200-day) after that. Old resistance at $375–376 should now act as

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$BTC Update

Watching this candle range here on BTC - formed by the Sept 21 daily candle. We have now had 12 daily bars since then which have not breached the high or low of that daily candle. Nothing but inside bars.

What I am specifically watching for is to see which side of this candle range gets taken FIRST.


Usually (not all the time), the first move is the false move and then price would move to at least the 50% of the range, if not all the way across the range.


Its also worth noting that the previous week high (PWH) and previous day high (PDH) are pretty closely aligned with the top side of this candle range. A move to the top side would not only give us a potential sweep of the candle range, but also of PWH & PDH for a beautiful trap move - if we get it.

The key to playing these trap moves is to wait for it to play out. Wait for the trap. That means fading the pump and waiting for the failure back into the range. Sometimes we might get lucky with a retest once back in the range, but

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Sailing into a gathering storm

Business as usual investing is becoming increasingly risky with less and less upside. Here we'll be taking a different approach and an exciting learning adventure exploring commodities, FX pairs and trend following. I...

I'm sending out a guest post tomorrow from a good friend.


I want to tease it with my favourite chart.

ES printed a 2D rising three candlestick pattern which is pretty bullish. BB looks ready for expansion with a breakout on BBtrend edging clsoer