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Stocks finished higher Friday after a weak jobs report. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Russell 2000 gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq added 1.2% after touching a record during the session.

Momentum is stronger than where we left it Friday. Cap-weighted readings are positive on all three indexes coming into today. The S&P is at +65.7, the Russell at +15 and the Nasdaq at +9.8. Equal weight is still negative on the S&P at -32 and the Russell at -31.

Tech is the only S&P sector with more breakouts than breakdowns, 29 to 4. Financials have 32 breakdowns and no breakouts. Consumer cyclicals have 21 and real estate has 14. The biggest stocks are carrying the indexes. Most of the market hasn't followed. Futures are flat ahead of the open.

Bonds didn't join the rally. The 10-year fell to 5.18% after the jobs report and closed the day at 5.28%, above Thursday's 5.24%. It's at 5.27% now.

Odds of an October rate hike fell to about 20%, from 28% Friday morning. A December hike is still priced as more likely than

It's amazing how much cash US consumers are sitting on.

Makes me think we are underestimating the positive income effect from higher interest rates on these cash holdings.

Also reinforces the view that the S&P 500 is going to $10,000.

UPDATE: ALTCOIN GEMS FOR 2027

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$SEI

KODE: 18

Penjelasan lengkapnya ada di postingan di bawah: katalis $SEI dan sebagainya.

Berpotensi masuk portofolio sub !!

UPDATE: ALTCOIN GEMS FOR 2027

DENGAN KODE: 02

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$FARTCOIN

PENJELASAN :

$FARTCOIN WHALES ARE COOKING !!

$FARTCOIN mulai menarik perhatian :

Strukturnya mirip dengan $BTC :

breakout - retest - kembali ke support.

Yang menarik, whale yang sebelumnya saya share masih hold sekitar $1.6M $FARTCOIN dengan total 10 juta token $FARTCOIN.

Sekarang muncul wallet baru: yang mulai akumulasi melalui: @bitget dengan total pembelian 1M $FARTCOIN ($170K).

~ Jangan-jangan itu kalian 🫵🏻🤣

Jadi bukan cuma satu wallet yang terlihat bullish, ada beberapa lagi yang tidak bisa saya SS.

Kalau kita lihat pola $USELESS sebelumnya, setelah breakout + retest, harga kembali melanjutkan pump.

Apakah $FARTCOIN akan melakukan hal yang sama? Area DCA: $0.13 - $0.16 (Now).

Portofolio SUB: saya belikan $FARTCOIN sebesar 5 juta IDR dengan avg price: $0.1681 bisa di cek di komentar postingan ini.

KODE KOINNYA: 02 $FARTCOIN

Let's see if the whales are cooking. 👨🏻‍🍳🔥

BREAKING: SMART MONEY IS ACCUMULATING $ONDO

Penjelasan pertama: ada wallet membeli 1.9M $ONDO senilai $513K di harga $0.26 dan hold sampai saat ini, 4-5 bulan. Kini nilai portofolio dia telah mencapai sekitar $967K (hampir $1M) di satu wallet.

Alasan kedua:

Menariknya, ada wallet lain juga terpantau mengakumulasi lebih dari 5.3M $ONDO senilai $2.6M melalui: @coinbase dengan estimasi average buy di sekitar: $0.49-0.50 (hari ini).

Dan terakhir ada wallet: hold 10 juta $ONDO dengan value amount: kurang lebih $5.2M.

Dan sebenarnya saya sudah sering beberapa kali posting akumulasi whales $ONDO di sub, nanti bisa di cek lagi.

Tambahan:

Bagaimana ? hanya dengan sub yang bisa di bilang murah dan gak sampai puluhan juta kaya kelas influenser lain ?

Kalian bisa belajar dan jauh lebih bijak dalam berinvestasi kan ? ingat pesan saya:

Rules No.1 saat berinvestasi adalah: jangan sampai modal awal kalian minus, selalu pakai MM yang baik, jangan gambling, uang akan datang kepada orang yang sabar. 👌🏻

Note: po

Commitment of Traders for NDX & RUT

Commercials are short the Nasdaq 100 and long the Russell 2000.

On the Nasdaq, the hedgers’ net short is near the bottom of the chart, and the 6-month COT index is at 0. Speculators are the ones long.

On the Russell, it is the other way around: commercials are heavily long, speculators are heavily short, and both COT indexes are up near 100.

The Nasdaq is the crowded long. Small caps are the crowded short.

Could we get a rotation again, with small caps outperforming tech? Worth paying attention.

Altcoins: A Harsh Reality

If all of this is really going to fall off a cliff, even altcoins aren't likely to perform. And this could be why and is more likely why

Everyone sees alts as being in a bear market all this time

They weren't

The waves 1 and 3 were SOOOOO strong gains wise in alts. wave 5 truncated

This is why often when wave 3 extends, wave 1 and 5 match in percentage

That's also why in a diagonal, you can get a blow off top. Wave 3 in a diagonal doesn't have to be the longest and strongest

Wave 1 and 5 usually are

When its 5, if can be a blow off as 5 overshoots the trend line of 3 and 5

Any wave can extend

If this is the pattern, it means alts were in a secular bull market still, but because waves 1 and 3 did so well, wave 5 was too filled with sellers

This usually happens when the conditions turn majorly bearish. The riskiest assets fail first.

That's why alts did this. Then Bitcoin went into a bear market before stocks.

Now other things are following. Everything soon will be.

And if i

ETH Cycle Price Targets

• ETH generated a 1.3-year cycle upside target in the 3800-3900 range.
• Support for this cycle target within the next month is the corresponding FLD in the 2000 area.
• If ETH pulls back toward early Nov'26, as time cycles indicate, it can find support at that FLD without invalidating the upside target.
• Notice from the EW chart posted earlier, that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move since the June low is at about 1953, which strengthens the case for the 1.3Y cycle FLD providing support.

Topping Pattern: Yields -> Stocks -> Commodities

At the 2000 and 2007 tops, yields peaked first, stocks second, commodities third.

The logic: higher rates slow the economy, stocks feel it next, commodities last.

Today, the 10-yr yield is still making new highs. Will the pattern repeat?

Short Positioning in Russell 2000

According to what I’ve seen, IWM had $3.3B of weekly outflows, its second-largest of 2026,

Stock Market Seasonality - Part 2

· October has a bad reputation because many corrections and bear markets ended in October.

· Since 1945, a pullback of 5% or more has ended in October 33 times, more than any other month. March and September are next, at 23 each.

· Since 1950, 6 of 12 bear markets bottomed in October.

· But oftentimes corrections end in September or in early October, and the market performance in October is not that bad on average.

· Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained about 0.8% to 1% in a typical October, and finished higher a bit more than half the time. 

· Notably, in midterm years, October is the best of the calendar. Per Stock Trader’s Almanac, the gains are about +3.0% for the S&P and +3.2% for the Dow. November is close behind, about +2.7%, and up more often.

· There is also a difference in October’s performance in bull and bear markets, as the chart below shows.

· Last but not least, November-April is the favorable period for stock market returns.

Stock Market Seasonality - Part 1

· October marks the end of the seasonally unfavorable May-October period, often referred to as “Sell in May and Go Away.”

· The chart below shows how the Dow Jones Industrial Average compares to the average of the last 25 years.

· This seasonality pattern worked well this year for DJI, small-caps, and the equal-weight S&P 500, but not so much for the cap-weighted S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, which are dominated by several mega-caps, including the Magnificent 7 stocks.