GDX Time Cycles
- Cycles point down toward the last week of November
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Today looks like the final 5th wave for USDMXN - I was a little early calling a complete impulse on Friday. But now looking good for a correction and some relief for risk assets.
UPDATE: ALTCOIN GEMS FOR 2027
DENGAN KODE: 06
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$MET
PENJELASAN :
$MET Buyback + Staking terus meningkat !!
Ada dua hal menarik dari $MET saat ini:
Pertama :
80M+ $MET sudah di-stake melalui Referral Staking Program. Ini menunjukkan partisipasi "komunitas" yang terus meningkat setelah 2 cycle pertama.
Kedua :
Dari sisi supply, buyback juga sangat agresif. Sejak awal 2026, buyback mencapai sekitar 71% dari circulating supply per 1 Januari, sementara supply hanya tumbuh sekitar 13%.
Jadi token yang dibeli kembali jauh lebih besar dibanding pertumbuhan supply.
Simplenya kaya gini :
Staking naik + buyback agresif + supply growth lebih rendah = Fundamental yang menarik untuk diperhatikan.
Di tambah lagi dari segi chart juga bagus !!
Saat ini: $MET sudah breakout + rites di timeframe (3D). Lalu saat ini saya melihat $MET masuk ke mode dari bearish menjadi bullish.
Sesuai pandangan awal:
Apakah $MET akan mengikuti $PUMP ?
Entry: 0.20-0.70 (postingan awal).
Take Profit
Sold 100%
Meteora
28 Sep
LONGInvested Capital
2%
Buying Price
0.2045$
Selling Price
0.3219$
ROI
57.44%
THE TREASURY BASIS TRADE AND WHY IT IS NOW A HUGE PROBLEM:
The Treasury basis trade is a huge, highly leveraged hedge-fund trade built around exploiting tiny differences between the price of US Treasury bonds and Treasury futures. In simplified terms, a hedge fund buys a Treasury bond while selling a futures contract on essentially the same exposure. Because the price difference between the two is normally extremely small, the trade is only attractive if it is done at enormous scale. Hedge funds therefore finance the Treasury purchases largely by borrowing in the repo market, allowing them to use substantial leverage.
The important point is that this is no longer an obscure corner of finance. Basis-trading hedge funds have become major participants in the Treasury market, partly because banks have become less willing or able to warehouse the enormous quantities of government debt being issued. The trade therefore performs a useful function: hedge funds absorb Treasuries and help connect
Are Semiconductor Stocks ready for new highs?
16-, 24- and 36-week cycles dominate swing moves of the Semiconductor Index (SOX).
The 24W cycle has just bottomed and SOX responded nicely. Soon, 16W and 36W cycles will jointly oppose the 24W cycle.
There will be additional long opportunities in semis:
- Nov'26: Troughs of 16W and 36W cycles
- Mar'27: Troughs of 16W and 24W cycles
Weekend Market update.
Hopefully everyone is enjoying the weekend. Please read this carefully 🙏
We have a critical week ahead with PCE, the Jobs Report, $MU earnings and $NKE earnings. Despite the macro environment not being very supportive, I’m still maintaining a slightly bullish view on the market.
Earnings, AI developments and continued AI infrastructure spending are keeping money flowing into the market. So far, many of the red days have continued to act as buying opportunities, but I still don’t want to chase strength or ignore the macro risks.
Trump has also scheduled an AI meeting next week, so we could see additional headlines and potential moves around AI.
At the same time, companies like $NVDA, $AMD, $MU and the major hyperscalers continue to commit significant capital toward AI infrastructure. The bottleneck remains real, and I don’t see AI development slowing down anytime soon. In my view, compute demand could grow enormously over the coming months and years.
I believe we still
SPX Micro EW Counts
· SPX also has multiple possibilities.
· Dropped the less likely alternatives, keeping the main bullish and bearish counts.
· For now, tracking the blue and green counts.
SPX Time Cycles - A Teaching Moment
· No noticeable changes in the SPX cycle composite since the last post.
· But let me zoom in for a teaching moment.
· I often repeat to use cycle composite peaks and troughs as approximate turning points and not to infer price levels from the cycle composite amplitudes.
· What makes cycle composites approximate?
· Cycle periods, at least for those cycles considered to be stable and reliable, are fairly accurate; they could vary slowly over time around their stable periods, but that’s a tertiary effect.
· Cycle phases experience continual small phase jitter due to the algorithm constantly trying to determine the optimum phase, but that’s also a small effect.
· The main culprits are the cycle amplitudes. For some cycles, they could vary noticeably over time.
· The cycle detection algorithm estimates the average cycle amplitudes over several cycle periods.
· When amplitudes are constant, the estimates are very accurate, but when they are time-varying, the averag
Sunday AMA
Hey everyone -
Opening this up for an AMA. Ask anything you want.
I am going to try to get better organized today.
I want to separate:
Overall Market
Bitcoin wave count, cycles, technicals
Altcoins
Dollar
Oil
Stock Market
Bonds
Macro
Psychology
The Fourth Turning
Tying It All Together
I want to create a section on: Music Theory and Why Music? (but not sure if I will be able to fit it in with the rest)
The reason I am putting this list on here, is because I want you to help me. Is there anything you want better defined that isn't on this list that will help you better understand my overall thesis?
I am running out of time to get this in front of people
Although based on some measurements I did, I don't think this collapses until November
We HAVE to get to the "see Tony, it didn't hit your target in October" taunting first
Everyone has to feel even more like they were right and that the 4 year cycle is dead or already bottomed
Still, this isn't a lot of time for me to get everyone feeling comforta
$AVGO - THE LONG HOLD Why Broadcom Is the Next Core Position
Broadcom is no longer a diversified chip company with an AI kicker — it is the toll booth on custom Al silicon and Al networking, with a software annuity attached. AI semiconductor revenue is tripling, the order book...
US Commercial Real Estate and Regional-Bank Exposure
The graphic highlights the financial pressures facing US commercial real estate, particularly the office sector, as falling property valuations, elevated vacancy rates and higher refinancing costs create risks for borrowers and regional banks.
According to the figures presented, US commercial real estate values have declined approximately 13% from their 2022 peak, while office-property prices have fallen around 35%. National office vacancy rates remain elevated at 19.2%, compared with a long-term average of approximately 12%, reflecting continued weakness in demand for office space.
A major concern is the approaching refinancing wall. The graphic estimates that approximately $3.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt will mature between 2026 and 2032, with annual maturities peaking at $496 billion in 2029. Meanwhile, average borrowing costs on new commercial real estate loans have increased from approximately 3.1% in 2021 to 6.3% in 2
UPDATE: ALTCOIN GEMS FOR 2027
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$EIGEN
KODE: 01
$EIGEN - WHALE ACCUMULATION ALERT
Wallet simple (BitGo) kini memegang sekitar 221.5M $EIGEN, senilai: $56.1M.
Di wallet ini ? hampir seluruh portofolio wallet ini terkonsentrasi di $EIGEN.
Dari riwayat tersebut ?
Wallet ini terlihat menerima beberapa transfer besar dari Coinbase, termasuk beberapa transaksi sebesar 10M $EIGEN.
Dan sekarang, nilai portofolionya berada di sekitar: ATH dan menembus $56M+
EigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer)
26 Sep
LONGInvested Capital
2%
Buying Price
0.2589$
Current Price
-
Take Profit
1.000$
Stop Loss
0.01000$
ROI
0.00%
OKTA retesting the megaphone. Fireworks coming next week imho
The Midterm Stall with lagging RUT, surpressed VIX, and SPY near ATH
This overall has been a very atypical midterm and I think most of the reason was the lockout rally in April which is something we usually see in September. So by flipping the script early on we've been in some uncharted area and it hasn't helped with the Iran conflict, oil prices, but then also being on the brink of the AI revolution.
VIX is telling the story of the market not pricing in a drop
There's been days, especially this week, where the VIX has made very little sense when the market is dropping and it's coming down with it. It was weird to see VIX stay at 15 as the market dropped deep red only to get bailed out with a Hormuz tweet. So a big reason I have to still lean towards upside is how much the VIX is really saying to not worry. They are not pricing in a big volatile downside move yet and until we see the VIX start spiking we have to assume more chop/slower October which again is atypical during a normal mid
When In Doubt, Zoom Out
IMO, I don't know how anyone could ever look at this chart right here and think
the bottom is 100% in
this is the start of a new bull market
This looks far more like the end of something
If anything is beginning, it is the first ever secular bear market
This candle closes in 5 days and 11 hours. The indicator below is a momentum index
Momentum persists
meaning, if this rolls over, which it has - momentum can carry this MUCH MUCH lower
The higher momentum swings, the harder the force it swings back down with
Really think logically
EVERYONE thinks Bitcoin has enable some cheat code for wealth. Let it crash, buy a bear market low, and hold. Rinse repeat. Wealth
No
That worked. And people recognized it did Now that it is easy, it won't work
The same way, everyone wants to get in on the newest fashion trend to be cool and "in"
They think look at me I am so unique and original, in the same fashion everyone is into now
At the end, there's people being like 'hey can you believe how co
