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NDX EW Count

• NDX dropped in three waves for a possible wave iv, which implies one more high for v; this count hinges on wave i being the gap high, with a negligible wave ii, not high confidence though

OKTA bullish retest of the breakout looks complete. Should get the big breakout move now

The cap-weight reading on the S&P is +1.2 this morning, down from +22 Monday. Equal weight is -91. The daily pulse went negative on every index, the S&P, the Nasdaq and the Russell.

Two sectors are still positive. Healthcare at +8 and technology at +5. Financials are -35, with one name breaking out against 36 breaking down. Consumer cyclical -24, industrials -17, real estate and utilities both negative with zero breakouts between them.

Rates are driving the damage. The 10-year is 5.15% and the 30-year is 5.44%, the highest since 2004. Wednesday's five-year auction priced at 5.03%, with the second-largest tail on record and the weakest demand since 2018, and flash PMIs came in at 57 and 58.7, with input costs at a four-year high. Seven-year paper gets sold this afternoon. The MOVE index is at 95, its highest since April. October hike odds are 73%. Mortgage rates just hit a one-year high.

Oil is feeding that rather than offsetting it. Brent closed up 3.9% Wednesday on the same day Saudi Ara

NASDAQ 100 Doble Top Pattern

This is the 4th NDX double top in the past 5 years. The last 3 times didn't end well for NDX.

Will this time be different?

Maybe not, time will tell.

5,000 Years of Interest Rates - Interesting Chart

CYRX HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT SETUP

looking for a push towards the expansion gate at $18.59 to short. Expansion gate is the magnet for B wave termination and we are currently in the QIM Maturation to resolution timing window, so this makes it a high probability setup as both price and time would be aligned.

I really like shorting these expanded flat style structures because it is an inherently contrarian trade and bull trap as everyone buys the breakout, only for it to reverse on them.

had to share this graph.

DJI EW Counts

DJI may have completed red micro-B or black (a).

I think we should see the final push down for silver over the next couple days.

QIM time cycle is close to entering reset. Considering the majority of corrections complete by the whole number 2, odds are that we are very close here to a bottom forming. One final sharp move down towards $61 is my base case, likely triggered by USDJPY and US10Y breaking out

Crude Oil (CL)

• CL may be targeting 86 +/-
• Based on the cycle analysis last week, the dominant short cycles were supposed to reverse in the first half of this week
• If they do, that could put pressure on the broader market

Here you go guys, the crude oil crush continues and they are trying to push CL all the way down to 90$ as I felt it would occur