The Midterm Stall with lagging RUT, surpressed VIX, and SPY near ATH
This overall has been a very atypical midterm and I think most of the reason was the lockout rally in April which is something we usually see in September. So by flipping the script early on we've been in some uncharted area and it hasn't helped with the Iran conflict, oil prices, but then also being on the brink of the AI revolution.
VIX is telling the story of the market not pricing in a drop
There's been days, especially this week, where the VIX has made very little sense when the market is dropping and it's coming down with it. It was weird to see VIX stay at 15 as the market dropped deep red only to get bailed out with a Hormuz tweet. So a big reason I have to still lean towards upside is how much the VIX is really saying to not worry. They are not pricing in a big volatile downside move yet and until we see the VIX start spiking we have to assume more chop/slower October which again is atypical during a normal midterm year
RUT (small caps, high beta stocks) on a big correction but near support
This is where we could finish the year with a little altcoin type season but for stocks once again if we can find support and the SPY can hold and VIX can remain calm.
The SPY pushing higher and not caring about anything
This has been the story all year where no matter what seems to happen the S&P 500 just pushes higher and higher even during weeks where you'll see the Mag 7 all deep in the red. Another reason why having exposure in it long term seems to be such an important long term strategy. I guess from here we might expect to see another all time high in October