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SILVER/GOLD making its way back into the megaphone pattern after faking out below. That was a nasty fakeout this week. Pure violence now as it goes vertical towards the target.

Momentum improved overnight, and our cap-weighted readings are back in positive territory this morning. The Russell is still underwater, so small caps haven’t joined in yet, but financials are improving.

Rates and oil both gave us some relief yesterday. The 10-year closed at 5.22%, down from 5.28%, and oil is pulling back again this morning. The AI trade took a hit after a report that OpenAI’s revenue is running about $20 billion below earlier estimates, with Oracle falling more than 5%. Most of that money stayed in stocks. It rotated into energy, staples and banks, and the equal-weight S&P finished higher on a day the S&P fell. Semiconductors are leading the bounce this morning.

It’s Friday with weekly options expiring, so everything is in play, and this market can go either way today.

Delta (DAL) missed estimates and cut its full-year profit outlook this morning on a $6 billion jump in fuel costs. If it pulls back to around $77, into the bottom band or lower, take a shot back up to the

GEX Cycles vs Gross & Net Gamma Exposure

• The first chart shows the gross gamma map until January.
• Bigger dots mean more gamma. Grey means calls and puts are roughly matched, blue is call-heavy, orange is put-heavy. The largest dots, at 8000 and 7000, are matched positions. Call-heavy strikes from 8050 to 8200 appear for the December and early-January expiries.
• The second chart shows the net gamma map until January.
• On a net basis 7000 disappears and 8000 shrinks to an ordinary dot: for the 18 December week it holds about $31 billion of gross gamma but only about $1.2 billion net. The largest net positions are call gamma near the current price for the 16 October expiry (roughly $3 billion each at 7800 to 7900) and at 8040 to 8160 for the turn of the year. Net put gamma is sparse and below the market, at 7650 to 7700 for late October and 7500 for 20 November.

SPX vs GEX Cycles

• Dealers' gamma exposure (GEX) data from SqueezeMetrics has similar (almost the same) cycles as SPX.
• Positive GEX means dealers are long gamma and should sell rallies and buy dips. Negative means they are short gamma and should trade with the move.
• However, the GEX cycle composite leads SPX cycle composite by about 1-3 weeks
• Not sure how to use this cycle lead time, but getting the same cycles from different data is a good confirmation of SPX cycles and turning points

TSLA Cycle Analysis

• If TSLA continues higher, as allowed by cycles, my bearish EW count will be likely invalidated

little pumpp on UVXY to shake the tree, nice reversal likely means bottom is in now for indices

SOL Solana Weekly Death Cross Confirmed: Look Out Below

This was a bearish retest of the neckline of a head and shoulders like I said and a retest of an uptrend line

Happening as price falls back below the 50 and 200 weekly MAs which just death crossed

This is going to TANK

LT - Risk reward

solid reaction from NAS after sweeping local lows. Be surprised if the bottom is not in

$MORPHO - Similar kind of setup where momentum is still pushing upwards and these double tops are looking more like cup and handles where if there is an October push they should reclaim and break on the 3rd attempt. Stops because if it goes below the previous dip then I no longer like the setup.

Rarely seen strong negative divergence between the NYSE Advance-Decline Line and SPX

Yes, the A-D line can improve in the next couple of months, and I expect so, but this damage may need more time to be fully fixed

Equal-Weight Magnificent 5 Stocks Composite (MAG5) - Cycle Analysis

MAG5 = MAG7 minus TSLA and META

When 2 or 3 out of 3 dominant MAG5 cycles have relatively close troughs, APPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and NVDA equal-weight composite responds with price corrections.

The next such confluence of troughs is at the end of Feb'27.

We have already seen similar weakness in Mar'27 in some indexes and sectors.