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Everything is going to plan.


Bitcoin just formed a weekly RSI higher low, after tagging the oversold area not too long ago.


This is one of my DCA triggers - which means I just executed my first BTC net buying transaction in years.


Starting slow, and will accelerate the buying as we come closer to October, or if prices drop lower, as discussed in recent articles.


No idea if the bottom is in, and I don't care. Systematic approach, above all.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

15 Jun

OPENLONG

Invested Capital

0.1%

Buying Price

65625$

Current Price

-

ROI

0.00%

SPX Cycles Continued

·         The next two charts show another view of how cycles interact and affect price moves.

·         The first chart shows the three dominant long cycles: 15W, 24W, and 37W cycles.

·         You could see that when they are aligned, stronger directional SPX moves occur, like in the recent powerful April-May rally; otherwise, the price action becomes less directional.

·         The bottom ribbon describes the strength of the cycle influence.

·         Although the trend due to these three dominant cycles is generally down into October, it may not be a straight line.

·         The relatively strong 77td cycle bottoms in July and peaks near the end of August, and may provide some sort of summer rally that I mentioned a couple of times.

·         The second chart shows the three dominant short cycles: 10td, 17td, and 30td cycles.

·         Notice how in early June they were all aligned in the downside direction, along with the 77td cycle discussed above, which resulted in

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I will be recording a video for you guys this weekend, reviewing Bitcoin structure and some of the altcoins.

Let me know in a comment below what charts you would like me to cover in the video and/or any specific setups or topics.

State of Financial Markets – It’s Cycle O’clock Time

  • What is the cycle message from SPX, VIX, DX, and TNX?
  • Weekend Market Twists & Turns Pro will be delivered on Sunday - Stock Market Indexes Special
  • Right now, you can lock in full access for the first 3 months at $5.85/month — an 85% discount.
  • Get high-conviction cycle timing, precise price projections, and Elliott Wave analysis on stocks, crypto, commodities, and forex.
  • Serious traders and investors love it. Subscribe here: 👇
    https://bravocycles-newsletter-market-timing.beehiiv.com/upgrade



I keep seeing Politicians, experts here at X, and elsewhere, they all keep comparing India with USA or developed country like Swiss or Sweden etc...
There is no comparison between India and them.
Forget it....How can you compare a $4 Tr economy with $30 Tr economy? How can you compare USA where spending for healthcare is $1.2 Tr by Fed with India? There is no comparision.
Nor can one compare it with EU countries.
These all EU countries has very very small populations around 1 Cr and they have huge huge resources and Money and still they have 36% of Tax.
Why these EU countries has so high Tax, when they are SO RICH?
When only 3 Cr people pay Tax in India, how can one compare with Germany that there anyone can go anywhere in Bus/Train without spending a dime?
But Why Germany has 36% Tax? And find out how many percentage of people pay tax there?
AI says- 51% of population in Germany pay Tax.
Even one can't compare USA and Swiss or Sweden.
USA is very large economy. How can one compare USA economy w

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Elliott Wave + Fibonacci Template for Very Active Traders

  • The chart represents a trading framework for very active traders
  • Fibonacci relations are most typical, where wave 3 is 1.618 times longer than wave 1
  • Two other typical Fibonacci ratios between waves 3 and 1, are 1.382 and 2.0

Note: I am not advocating this approach. This is for very nimble, aggressive traders. Most traders could do very well, and maybe better, on balance, by buying 1-2 setups to catch waves 3-4-5

EWT Teaching Moment - Multiple Potential EW Counts

  • Oftentimes, there is an ambiguity between multiple potential Elliott wave patterns.
  • Many analysts show only their favorite count, which often turns out to be wrong.
  • I prefer to show the most plausible counts; I found that to be a better approach for trade planning and risk management.
  • But multiple counts are not showstoppers.
  • Actually, oftentimes multiple counts point in the same near-term direction, so you take a trade and adjust based on further wave pattern evolution; some counts get dropped along the way.
  • This VIX example is a nice example of multiple possible counts pointing in the same direction.

So gold is very responsive to the 2 year yield - but 30 year treasuries and equities are not... or at least not at the moment. Maybe I need something other than TLT on the short leg of GLD/TLT...

Why China's Rare Earth Export Controls Are So Effective


China's leverage comes from controlling multiple steps in the supply chain:



Stage China's Position


Rare earth mining Large global share

Separation and refining Dominant

Rare earth metals/alloys Dominant

NdFeB magnet production Dominant

End-use component ecosystem Extensive


NASDAQ 100 - Head & Shoulders Pattern


NDX is potentially completing an H&S pattern, with negative divergencies in RSI and MACD.


See Elliott wave and cycle posts earlier for more details.



NDX - Elliott Wave Count

  • Beautiful count
  • Ideal target is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which rhymes with micro-5 of c target and gray resistance
  • But the gap is a magnet, so it may overshoot the ideal target

Magnificent 7 stocks dropped >10% in 10 days, below the 100D and 200D MAs. Yes, they could bounce, but the trend is down.


Did you pay attention to my cycle warning 10 days ago?


At that time, cycles were turning down, and MAGS met the highest upside cycle price projection.




This looks like wave 4 complete on BTC - a running flat


The tell tale sign that it is a running flat is that the RSI took out the highs of the A wave


1h level 2 bearish exhaustion signal firing too. Inidcates trend on hourly is losing momentum!


Next leg down to 54565 should be imminent

Designing around my weaknesses – why eliminating skill from my strategy is the skill itself

 

Many people get attracted to financial markets by promises of quick returns. You work a regular job and hear about this one dude who made retirement-worthy money in the crypto markets, and you’re intrigued. Is this your lucky ticket out of the rat race? Odds are, this story feels familiar, as most crypto participants got into this market simply because someone told them it could make them a lot of money in a short amount of time.

 

And to be fair, that promise isn’t entirely incorrect. The only problem is that they generally only talk about the potential to gain a lot of money, while the other side of that potential is far more likely; losing a lot of money in a short amount of time.

In fact, Roughly 90% of crypto investors lose money. A stark contrast to the fact that so far, almost everyone who bought Bitcoin and then held on for at least four years is in profit. The only exception: those who bo

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