SPX Cycles Continued
· The next two charts show another view of how cycles interact and affect price moves.
· The first chart shows the three dominant long cycles: 15W, 24W, and 37W cycles.
· You could see that when they are aligned, stronger directional SPX moves occur, like in the recent powerful April-May rally; otherwise, the price action becomes less directional.
· The bottom ribbon describes the strength of the cycle influence.
· Although the trend due to these three dominant cycles is generally down into October, it may not be a straight line.
· The relatively strong 77td cycle bottoms in July and peaks near the end of August, and may provide some sort of summer rally that I mentioned a couple of times.
· The second chart shows the three dominant short cycles: 10td, 17td, and 30td cycles.
· Notice how in early June they were all aligned in the downside direction, along with the 77td cycle discussed above, which resulted in a strong move down for a few days.
· In general, when multiple cycles have aligned peaks/troughs, we get clearer sell/buy signals; it is harder to predict price behavior from individual cycles, e.g., in June, and the best we can get is estimated turning points from the cycle composite signals.
· Curiously, most people think that news affects price movements.
· In my experience, cycles and Elliott wave patterns very often predict price moves before the news.
· But it is also true that news sometimes may delay or amplify price moves predicted by wave analysis.
· Of course, it is not simple. This is “the biggest poker game in the world,” as some traders say.