US Dollar Index (DXY) - Long + Very-Long Cycles Together
- L+VL cycles indicate a DXY cycle trough in October
Stay tuned for short cycles and cycle price projections
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The latest public Slice posts, articles and creator updates.
AUDJPY Cycles
- Cycles rolled over and support my Elliott wave analysis
Genomes and Insider Buying Activity
This is a slower moving industry that had an early genetic hype bubble pop that now actually gets more attractive when the processing power, chips, and memory can start to handle the input/output of gene sequencing and finding theraputic solutions.
$WSG - Huge earnings miss that led to a 50% sell off that led to 85 million in insider buying and has since almost fully retraced that. A drop like that triggers an automatic SEC investigation but the insiders seem like they know it was just panic selling. Almost reminds me of $GRAL where it had a huge drop then has been working to erase it. Sellers are very emotional in the bio tech world where the high beta swings are crazy.
$CRSP - Being patient on this one but if they can deliver which looks like they will it's got some great upside potential. The mistake most will make on this one is wanting instant gains and not focusing on a 1 to 4 time frame. Genetics moves slow until suddenly it doesn't with a giant
The CPI headline everyone's seeing isn't the number that matters
Inflation printed 4.2% this morning. First 4-handle in three years, and it'll lead every story today. Looks ugly on the surface.
Look one layer down, though. Core inflation, stripping out food and energy, came in soft... up just 0.2% on the month, below estimates and cooler than April. Almost all the heat was energy, up nearly 4%, and that's the Iran and oil story running straight through the pump. A supply shock, not the economy overheating.
So the piece the Fed actually watches is cooling. The piece it can't touch is the one making the headline scary.
Here's how the market's voting into the open. Our mega-cap trend reading, which had rolled over negative overnight, flipped back green on that soft core. The next leg down we were bracing for this morning got pulled back from the edge.
But this isn't a relief rally, and that's the tell. Most sectors are red. Tech's the worst again, down over a percent. The only green is energy,
Panic is setting in across Europe that the housing market may start to suffer sharp declines.
As ever in terms of financialisation all assets must continue rising to stop the bubble bursting. If it doesn't happen markets will crater and financial institutions balance sheets render them insolvent.
The absurdity of this is going to not only burst all these bubbles but also lead to enormous capital destruction in the process.
Rotation Out of AI/Chips & Tech Mega-Caps?
·        Brutal intraday selloff followed by a rebound left technology, energy, and materials with negative breadths.
·        The rest of the market looks fine, similar to Bloody Friday, but more pronounced in non-tech sectors.
·        It does appear that investors are rotating out of AI and Semiconductors into other sectors.
·        This rotation may last for a while, but eventually most sectors should head down into October.
VXX Update
- VXX has evolved according to general expectations since Wed-Thur last week
- Things are moving fast by the time I prepare to post the price changes much
Interesting Bitcoin Dominance Observation
Past altcoin seasons began from a breakdown from the current level we are at now, from the candlestick open.
Does it happen again?
I do not see conditions for an altcoin season IMO
Instead, we might just see Bitcoin bleed worse than altcoins, which would still have the same impact on the BTC.D chart
But it is worth watching. If Bitcoin reverses here even short term, we prob want to be in alts
Last chance for SILJ to bounce here IMO - otherwise we target the Half cycle low in the 8 year cycle late 2026:
In terms of a single sentence summary:
SPIEF 2026 was about building the institutions, technologies, payment systems, transport corridors and partnerships required for a multipolar Eurasian-centred economic order removed from Western financial and technological infrastructure.
SpaceX prospecuts is very interesting... Basically Musk invented Starlink to make demand for his rocket launching business. Witht the new Starship - I think he is hoping to make demand by promoting his satellite data centre model. Data centre satellites will be so much more massive, only Starship could possibly transport them. Its a bold plan - but it could easily fail... but if it doesn't, he will revolutionise another industry.
S&P 500 Update
Keltner Channel has curled downward. $SPX should normally bounce off the lower Keltner, but in strong downtrends, it may just slide along the lower Keltner.
The swing trend indicator, the McClellan Summation Index, is pointing downward.
The McClellan Oscillator is weak and approaching oversold territory, but not there yet.
4-Year Bitcoin Cycle
- Originally predicted the $BTC peak for late December 2024.
- The peak occurred over 10 months later, within days of the original forecast.
- I expect $BTC to bounce for 5-6 weeks based on IT cycles, but then move down into late 2026 or early 2027.
This was a truly amazing forecast!
Did you all download my Free eBook? I'd like you to review it for the long-term state of the US stock market! 👇
https://bravocycles-newsletter-market-timing.beehiiv.com/free-market-outlook
