Friday's Put Volume
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$AAOI — $78.26
Third defense of the $73–75 zone today's low $75.50, now pressing the intraday MA cluster. RSI 51, basing.
Support: $75.50–76
Resistance: $78.50–80
Over $80 starts repair toward $85; under $75.50 the base breaks.
Market update:
Monday was a tech-led repair day, not yet a confirmed reversal. The Nasdaq gained over 1%, snapping a five-day losing streak, led by memory chips and semiconductors as beaten-down growth bounced. But major indexes faded from intraday highs, suggesting selling into strength and more sideways volatility ahead. This remains a difficult buy-the-dip, sell-the-rally market where both longs and shorts can get caught on the wrong side. The VIX slipped below 19, but the 10-year yield moved back above 5.1%, keeping pressure on risk assets. The real test begins this week with major earnings, including Netflix, Tesla and Meta, alongside more than 70 S&P 500 companies reporting. Last week’s question was whether AI capex can justify its cost; this week’s earnings may provide the answer. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and don’t mistake an oversold bounce for a confirmed trend reversal.
$AMZN $TSLA $GOOG $NOW $MSFT $NVDA $AAPL $COST
this are still holding well, most of the AI plays are st
NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis
- Spinning top (near-doji) inside previous bearish candle. What it means?
- Initial buying after the gap up was met by selling pressure, signified by the long upper wick. "Dumb money" was buying after the violent bounce in the futures, "smart money" was selling. Although the spinning tops and dojis are indecision days in the middle, overall this is mildly bearish, awaiting next candle's confirmation.
- About 55% and 45% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are below the 50D and 200D MAs, respectively.
TD13 Fires on BTCUSD Daily: Is This The Moment Before Reversal?
A TD13 (Tom DeMark Sequential 13) is a technical indicator designed to identify potential trend exhaustion and reversal points.
It can signal that an existing trend is becoming vulnerable to a reversal, even when price momentum still appears strong.
- TD13 Sell: Appears after an extended advance. Signals potential buying exhaustion, increasing the probability of a bearish reversal or meaningful correction.
- TD13 Buy: Appears after an extended decline. Signals potential selling exhaustion, increasing the probability of a bullish reversal or meaningful recovery.
What makes a TD13 significant?
Unlike a traditional overbought/oversold oscillator, TD Sequential measures a specific sequence of price behavior. Its Countdown phase reaches 13 when enough qualifying bars have occurred following a Setup.
A TD13 can precede a sharp reversal, but it can also produce a temporary consolidation, a modest countertrend move, or no reversal at all.
UPD
Do you want to do a live session to discuss the proxy and the consequences on the possible merger announcement?
I'll do a poll for possible timing, please participate, and also post your questions so I can prepare.
AI data center stocks got hammered last week. CoreWeave fell about 25%. The cost of insuring its debt against default, through credit default swaps, climbed past 11% a year. Its bonds sold off until they yielded close to 15%. A hot inflation report raised the odds of another rate hike, and the companies that borrow to build data centers took the worst of it.
While that was happening, two executives at Applied Digital (APLD) were buying. Applied Digital builds AI data centers in North Dakota and leases them to tenants that include CoreWeave. On Friday, the day the stock fell 11.5%, President Jason Zhang bought 300,000 shares at $18.86, about $5.7M. CEO and Chairman Wes Cummins bought 55,803 shares at $18.04, a penny under the close. It's his first open-market buy since 2023.
The stock finished the week at $18.05, down 24%. Two of the people with the best view of Applied Digital's tenants and its debt put $6.7M into it on the worst day of the selloff.
Good morning everyone!
Just a quick announcement: I'm going to start the weekly Q&A series here on Slice.
Every Monday, I'll endeavor to publish a post answering subscribber questions and comments. At the end of each week, we'll go through your questions and I'll share my answers.
This is the first of many weekly Q&A posts, so feel free to ask away!"
Wishing everyone a great week!
How does a tech 'bubble' burst when fund managers are maximum underweight tech?
This is not like 1999. Back then we were all trading tech like crazy, and playing every IPO. It was a true mania.
Today is the opposite. Nobody overweight tech and perpetually calling it a bubble..
ASEAN De-dollarisation Briefing
Week ending 16 October 2026 | Reporting period: 10–16 October 2026
Executive Summary
The most important developments this week concern China's expanding financial relationship with ASEAN, newly released renminbi settlement statistics, and the continuing development of regional payment infrastructure.
On 14 October, China released two important sets of official statistics. The first showed that China–ASEAN merchandise trade reached RMB6.84 trillion during January–September 2026, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year. The second showed that China's worldwide cross-border RMB settlement reached RMB15.23 trillion for current-account transactions and RMB6.11 trillion for direct investment during the same period.
These are different statistical populations. The trade figure concerns China and ASEAN, whereas the settlement figures cover China's transactions with the entire world. They cannot be combined to calculate ASEAN's renminbi settlement share. An additional findi
Margin Debt tops lead SPX tops.
Margin Debt made a lower high in September.
We will see whether October data stays below the high, creating a negative divergence. If so, it would be bearish.
SPX vs McClellan Summation Index (MCC SI)
MCC SI, the trend indicator, curled up, but it did not help SPX.
A red flag? I suspect that the MCC SI will curl down after a bounce.
Welcome. This is the deeper cut.
You already know the public version of my work. On X I post the tables, the articles, the quick takes, and the calls to pay attention when something matters for Tesla and SpaceX shareholders.
On Slice here is where I go further.
Here you’ll get:
- Longer, more detailed analysis on strategy, governance, filings, voting dynamics, and the long-term mission
- Context and reasoning I don’t have room (or always want) to put on the open timeline
- A weekly live session where we can go through current developments together and take questions. Will do a poll soon which day of the week fits best.
Right now the focus is the potential Tesla–SpaceX combination.
I’ve shared scenario tables and written multiple pieces on the process. The public discussion is still mostly speculation on ratios and premiums. What actually matters for a retail shareholder is different: the voting math, how the board approached the negotiation, what “decisive support” looks like in practice, the timeli
NYSE Common Stock Advance-Decline Line is bouncing.
It does look like a bear flag, though.
SPX Cycle Targets
· Reminder: Cycle price projections are fully met about 70% of the time. Directional accuracy (e.g., approaching but not fully reaching the target) extends to 80-90%.
· SPX has 19td and 60td targets below 7600, as shown in the chart.
· If it continues down toward these targets early this week, it may also generate an 80td cycle target below these targets.
· However, if the 60td target is not reached this week, the bounce that I expect will likely invalidate it; This does not have much impact as the 19td overlaps it and will be much harder to invalidate.
