ASEAN De-dollarisation Briefing Week ending 16 October 2026 | Reporting period: 10–16 October 2026 Executive Summary The most important developments this week concern China's expanding financial relationship with ASEAN, newly released renminbi settlement statistics, and the continuing development of regional payment infrastructure. On 14 October, China released two important sets of official statistics. The first showed that China–ASEAN merchandise trade reached RMB6.84 trillion during January–S

ASEAN De-dollarisation Briefing

Week ending 16 October 2026 | Reporting period: 10–16 October 2026

Executive Summary

The most important developments this week concern China's expanding financial relationship with ASEAN, newly released renminbi settlement statistics, and the continuing development of regional payment infrastructure.

On 14 October, China released two important sets of official statistics. The first showed that China–ASEAN merchandise trade reached RMB6.84 trillion during January–September 2026, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year. The second showed that China's worldwide cross-border RMB settlement reached RMB15.23 trillion for current-account transactions and RMB6.11 trillion for direct investment during the same period.

These are different statistical populations. The trade figure concerns China and ASEAN, whereas the settlement figures cover China's transactions with the entire world. They cannot be combined to calculate ASEAN's renminbi settlement share. An additional finding is particularly important: a September report from the People's Bank of China's Guangxi branch provides actual China–ASEAN RMB settlement figures for 2025. These establish a useful baseline for measuring future developments.

No major new ASEAN central-bank local-currency agreement or operational payment-system launch was independently confirmed during 10–16 October. Nevertheless, the latest statistics provide a clearer picture of the scale of the financial infrastructure already operating.

1. China–ASEAN trade reaches RMB6.84 trillion

14 October 2026 — New official data

China's General Administration of Customs reported that merchandise trade with ASEAN reached RMB6.84 trillion during the first nine months of 2026, representing growth of 22.7% compared with the corresponding period of 2025. ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, accounting for 17.1% of Chinese merchandise trade.

Particularly significant was the acceleration during the third quarter. China–ASEAN trade reached approximately RMB2.5 trillion in Q3 2026, an increase of 31.4% year-on-year. Chinese exports to ASEAN increased by 23.4% during January–September, while imports increased by 21.4%.

Assessment: This is evidence of accelerating regional commercial integration, not direct evidence of de-dollarisation. However, expanding bilateral trade increases the potential transaction base for direct renminbi settlement and bilateral local-currency arrangements.

2. China's cross-border RMB settlement reaches RMB21.34 trillion

14 October 2026 — New central-bank statistics

The People's Bank of China published its financial statistics for the first nine months of 2026.

These are actual reported settlement values, rather than proposed transactions or financial-infrastructure capacity. They demonstrate the substantial scale of renminbi settlement across China's international commercial and investment relationships. However, the published release does not provide an ASEAN-specific breakdown. It would therefore be incorrect to suggest that ASEAN accounted for RMB21.34 trillion of these transactions.

3. China–ASEAN RMB settlement: RMB9.44 trillion in 2025

The most useful ASEAN-specific figures come from the 2026 Report on RMB Usage in ASEAN Countries, released by the Guangxi branch of the People's Bank of China on 15 September. Although these figures were published before the current reporting week, they provide a substantial statistical baseline.

The RMB9.436 trillion figure specifically concerns China–ASEAN cross-border transactions. It includes broader financial flows and must not be interpreted entirely as trade settlement. The RMB2.591 trillion merchandise figure is narrower and therefore more useful when examining the currency used for physical trade. The figures establish that substantial China–ASEAN RMB settlement is already taking place, rather than merely being contemplated through bilateral agreements.

4. China's regional payment infrastructure continues expanding

The September Guangxi central-bank report also documented the expansion of China's renminbi clearing infrastructure across Southeast Asia. It reported 41 additional CIPS participants and identified six ASEAN countries with designated RMB clearing banks: Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Laos and Cambodia.

The report also described bilateral local-currency settlement arrangements involving China and Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos. These developments matter because the ability to settle transactions directly in renminbi depends on more than commercial demand. Banks require appropriate clearing access, liquidity arrangements, settlement accounts and regulatory authorisation. China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System provides infrastructure for cross-border RMB transactions, while designated clearing banks support local access to renminbi liquidity.

5. ASEAN cross-border QR payments: actual regional adoption

The latest consolidated ASEAN figures provide evidence that regional payment connectivity is already being used commercially. The joint statement issued following the ASEAN Finance Ministers' and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in April reported the following results for 2025:

The statement also recorded 29 cross-border QR and instant-payment linkages established by December 2025. Importantly, these statistics concern ASEAN payment connectivity including external partners, not exclusively transactions between ASEAN members. These figures provide a useful regional benchmark because they measure completed transactions rather than agreements.

6. Currency swap arrangements: no new agreement confirmed

No new drawing, enlargement or bilateral swap agreement was confirmed during the reporting week.

Weekly Data Scoreboard

Overall Assessment — 16 October 2026

The week's most significant new evidence is the acceleration of China–ASEAN trade and the publication of China's latest cross-border renminbi settlement statistics. The broader evidence is increasingly substantial. China–ASEAN RMB receipts and payments reached RMB9.436 trillion in 2025, while Indonesia's local-currency settlement framework processed US$49.4 billion equivalent during the first eight months of 2026. Meanwhile, ASEAN's interconnected QR and instant-payment systems are handling millions of completed transactions.

However, they are not interchangeable indicators. China–ASEAN RMB settlement includes financial transactions, Indonesia's LCT figures include non-ASEAN partners, and ASEAN's retail-payment statistics cover a different segment of the financial system.

The principal outstanding data gaps are a 2026 China–ASEAN-specific RMB settlement total, updated country-by-country LCT volumes, confirmed operational commencement of Indonesia's additional RMB clearing arrangements, and evidence of actual changes in the currency composition of ASEAN trade invoices and official reserves.

Those observations will determine whether the region's expanding financial infrastructure is producing a measurable reduction in dollar dependence.