FXY Cycles
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big reversal on XLE - looking good for our C wave down which should support risk assets
VIX Yearly Chart Major Breakout Attempt
This is so bad
VIX is trying to break out of a line chart downtrend line fro 2008. COVID was a false breakout
The RSI is already breaking out
This really seems to be starting any day or hour
TRADE IDEAS [Brewing in my brain]
Alright, guys, sorry for the delay, but I had to get some things out of my way today before dedicating 99% of my focus to writing about what I'm thinking of doing next. Sorry, but 1% of my brain will always be focused o…
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US Major Banks Analysis:
Three banks are officially in bear-market territory: Capital One, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Truist is close at 18.91% below its high. Seven of the ten banks have fallen more than 15% from their respective highs.
Being in an official bear market is being 20% lower than the 52 week high.
NDX Technical Analysis
Keltner Channel pinball: from the Spinning Top above the upper Keltner down to the lower Keltner
Elliott Wave Pattern: Possible Ending Diagonal
$SPY — the uptrend is intact.
Three months: higher lows since the August base, 50-day rising at $768.60, price above it. The October push took out the old highs near $778.
Today's CPI selloff was the first real test in weeks — and the 50-day held on a closing basis at $769.60.
RSI 59 — constructive, not stretched. The moving-average stack (50 over 100 over 200, all rising) is textbook.
Support: $768.60 (50-day), then $756.96 (100-day). As long as price stays above the 50-day, dips are pullbacks, not reversals.
$MRVL — the pullback is orderly.
$268.73. Nearly doubled from the July lows to $300, now cooling off — but still far above the rising 50-day at $239.56.
RSI 57 — healthy. Acc/Dist at 16.3b in a relentless uptrend, so institutions have been accumulating the entire move.
Support: $260-265, the recent shelf. Below that, the 50-day at $239-240 is the real backstop — and the golden cross (50 over 100) just confirmed the longer trend.
The AI interconnect thesis hasn't changed. The chart just needs to breathe after doubling.
$AAPL — the steady climber.
$342.96. While the market sold off on hot CPI, Apple held near its highs — still above every moving average, with the 50-day all the way down at $314.
RSI 63 — strong, not overheated. Acc/Dist in a clean uptrend, so real buying sits behind this move.
Support: $335-340, the recent breakout zone. Below that, the 50-day at $314 is the backstop.
This is what leadership looks like in a rotation: the market punished duration and rewarded cash flow. $AAPL is the latter.
CRWV — capitulation day.
$60.82. Two sessions erased the entire $88 breakdown zone and undercut the July low. RSI 28.6, heaviest volume of the year.
This isn't chart selling anymore — it's the credit market. CoreWeave's 2032 bonds below 80 cents, yields near 15%. When bonds price distress, the equity trades like an option.
Oversold bounces happen, but first real resistance is $76-77, then the $88-97 MA wall. Until $72-76 reclaims with volume, rallies are guilty until proven innocent.
Watch the Volta loan outcome tomorrow — it's the next read on what AI debt actually costs.
Just to be clear, HACK has to not only hold here but also make new highs very soon for me to remain bullish. Failure here has me considering that this recent breakout was a corrective structure. If it fails to hold and breaksdown further I wil lbe cutting all cybersecurity names.
XLE 65m level 3 bearish exhaustion into apex of rising wedge. They are flushing everyone before the big reversal
Inflation came in hotter than expected this morning, driven mostly by energy. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, lifting the annual rate to 3.7% from 3.4% in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month and accounted for more than half of the increase. Gas is up 34% from a year ago, energy overall is up 20% and fuel oil is up 74%. Airfares are up 22%.
Grocery prices went the other way. Food at home fell 0.1%, with meat, poultry, fish and eggs down 0.5%, dairy down 0.9% and milk down 2%.
Core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, and the annual rate climbed to 2.6%. That’s the number the Fed watches, and it keeps an October hike on the table. The Fed can raise rates and make borrowing more expensive, but it can’t produce more oil. Higher fuel costs work their way into airfares, deliveries and restaurant bills no matter where rates sit.
Stocks opened lower, and our momentum readings are taking the hit. Equal-weight S&P is negative at -26. Small caps are
ES has just generated some downside targets on the hourly chart
The key question is whether it will develop into a trend-down day
A weak bounce in the first 30-60 mins may suggest that
