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$EBAY - Adding a second entry. Still think it's got too strong of a narrative with good financials and will beat earnings in February.

The precious metals, trading cards, and new products they've been pushing out make it a clear winner in the space. Goldin auctions joining forces and going global was a strong strategic move. The PSA vault continues to gain adoption.

Even the more conservative analysts from banks have it priced in the $110 to $115 range. Taking a little bit of a risk getting exposure this late but this one feels like one that when it hits an ATH people will be wondering why they didn't take the "maps and shovel" play in a collectors trading market.

ETH long

Quick Update: Bitcoin – Still Not Fully Convinced, But Ready To Pivot

This was always going to be a PIVOTAL move, so one side was always going to end up winning and it would be dramatic

No side won yet, so we haven't got the drama

When one side gives in, you will know

The market wanted to close the monthly and quarterly the way it did yesterday. I am going through all of those signals now and will report back soon on that.

For now, I wanted to show that this still has potential to turn back down

Price is hitting the 50 day SMA - getting above it for a third time should send this up higher. Rejection obviously leads to now lows

LMACD could puke back down (kinda looks like it will) or cross bullish and move about the zero line

RSI is close to making it above 50, but is also hitting a lost uptrend support line turned resistance

Still hard to flip bullish, but getting closer to having no choice but to do so

Overall, if this reverses higher I see two things: It will be short-lived and won't be new AT

SPX - Micro

SPX bounced in three waves so far and closed the 3/26 gap. It can be a or micro-3 or a per black count.

The red count is just in case, a crash count, which is not likely, given all the indicators we looked at.

Here is a brief roundup of our underlying views April 2026

$SPY - The S&P 500 is currently on it's 6th losing week but if it bounces it might end at only 5. If it continues and go we go into the 7th losing week that has only happened 4 times in history with the last one being in 2022.

A bounce is completely normal and expected, even the 2022 fractal has us bouncing here and even coming pretty high before the next round of selling.

Might use the bounce as a time to trim some stocks

Since this is a pretty typical Turnaround Tuesday it makes sense to look to take advantage of the rally. In no way shape or form is there any indication that we just V shape reverse from here. Especially with $OIL and war stock still pushing up and economic data trending worse not better yet.

COHR chart request

85 level is a big spot from a long term perspective. This is my read on the EW structure. Could be close to putting in a major top over the coming months with one final subwave impulse.

If we do get the type of financial crisis I'm expecting. Honestly wouldn't be surprised for it to retest 15 -20 later this year

For LTF swing trade, I'd look at circa 139 to caputure the final push up in a couple months

Bitcoin BTCUSD Short Setup

Ugh, we didn't get a good enough bounce for me to consider the short, but it looks like it might be beginning. I don't want to jump the gun, but there is potential that this unfolds fast.

If you can risk a smaller amount and get into a short, this might be the setup. It's just not the best setup to be risk-free with a stop loss

But I am going to short here with a stop loss above $69,101

I don't love the risk management around this, but it is a rare moment the reward is just too big here to pass up this chance

Update: Dropped $1000 as I was typing this and I am going as fast as I can. I got my short in. I am sorry I couldn't get this written fast enough after noticing the retest failure on the daily. Nothing is confirmed yet. Be flexible and I will keep looking for moments where getting in makes sense

ETHUSD Cycle Projections

Similarly as for BTCUSD, I speculated last weekend that BTCUSD may generate an 80D cycle target (green box) to a new low.

It did happen. ETH may start a more sustainable bounce from that target. See the next post.