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Dow Theory Sell Signal
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has confirmed the trend reversal in the Transportation Average by multiple criteria, including making lower lows, breaks of trendlines, support, and both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages
Can we agree that the Dow Theory Sell has been triggered?
NASDAQ 100 – What's brewing beneath the surface?
Second-tier stocks have been declining since mid-August.
Approximately 70% are in intermediate-term downtrends, and 45% are in long-term downtrends.
A select group of large-cap tech stocks is holding up the index.
What's next?
Scenario A: Second-tier stocks join large-caps at new highs
Scenario B: Large-caps join second-tier stocks at new lows
I think B is next
APPL Cycle Price Target
- This is the only price target for APPL
- Allow for a reversal from this target
NDX - Short Cycles
· Short cycles have been very helpful in the confusing market over the last 3-4 months.
· They work well in sideways, range markets, but could be largely ignored in trending markets when multiple long cycles are pointing in the same direction.
· Hurst nominal 10D, 20D, and 40D, 8td, 16td, and 29td cycles in NDX were exceptionally helpful.
· They are expected to peak early in the week; always allow some +/- tolerance around projected peaks/troughs.
· Overall, these three cycles suggest a choppy downside bias into early October.
NYSE Common Stock Advance-Decline Line vs Market Rotation
· You might remember that in late May I speculated that we could see some rotation from the mega-cap stocks and semiconductors into the broader market that could last a couple of months.
· It did happen.
· You could see that from early June until mid-August the A-D line was trending higher while the SPX was essentially moving sideways, and NDX (not shown) was slightly weaker.
· The A-D Line has been declining since mid-August and broke below its 200D MA, which usually implies it might touch, or worse, the 400D MA.
· The rotation into the broader stock market from mega-cap stocks started to fade in mid-August.
· Lately, on multiple occasions, the broad market weakness, often when oil prices were up, was masked by strength in several mega-caps.
When these mega-caps correct, the market may experience additional downside.
SPX-to-VIX Ratio
§ How to use SPX/VIX?
§ In range markets, it pinballs between the Keltner channel boundaries (or Bollinger Band boundaries), flagging overbought/oversold conditions and potential reversal points.
§ In strongly trending markets, it moves between the mid-channel and outer boundaries, and such behavior is an indication of a strong trend, similarly to when RSI is embedded in the oversold/overbought range.
§ Right now, the ratio is headed toward the upper Keltner.
§ Since we are still in a sideways market, I expect the ratio to reverse from the upper Keltner or from not much away from it. This should align with a short-term SPX reversal.
Three central banks raised rates inside of eight days, and the market went up. That tells you what's actually driving this tape, and it isn't the Fed. It's the price of oil.
Yesterday JPMorgan's commodity desk, the one the rest of the Street reads, put out a note saying it no longer has a baseline view on oil. First time since the war started. Their words: "We simply don't know how to model the endgame." Every threshold they assumed would force a deal has been crossed. $100 crude didn't do it. $5 gasoline didn't. Four percent inflation and a 10-year over 5% didn't. Ten million barrels a day are disrupted and there's no exit in sight.
Their fair value on Brent is $90. It trades at $106. That's $16 of fear in every barrel, and fear is the one input that can leave overnight. The State Department approved visas yesterday for Iran's president and foreign minister to attend the UN meeting in New York next week. That's the first door either side has opened in months.
So both tails are live. A he
Read this POST 3-4 Times---
Please members don't try to buy stock as it is down.
Stock which has lost market interest, why you want to buy?
Just because it is down? That is wrong Mindset.
Now there is diff between stock down by 70-80 % and down by 30-40%.
You can't buy Kore Digital but you can average GVPIL.
Both are down, but Kore Digital has lost market favor, while GVPIL is still where market interest is seen. It is in new Bull phase, in rerating phase.
New Bull Phase, new stocks. And I have discussed new stocks which are pure new and some old, but they becomes new as they didn't participate in last Bull Run, like GVPIL, Unihealth, Shree Hari, Resonance, etc......so they become now new stock that will participate in new Bull run.
Patience: The Market Makes These Moments Difficult
What you see on the left is nested 1-2 / 1-2 behavior
This happens right before an impulse
This is essentially the "we are so back" on low timeframes, which charge up the intensity pf the higher timeframes
the more low timeframe nested 1-2s we get, the bigger the impulse
This looks like more in less time than the comparison
But that means there is a lot of confusion and "we are so back" moments. The market is trying to shake everyone out of the positions before the big trade
That's part of what makes the move so impulsive. Everyone shaken out then has to chase
take a look at the analog and think about the behaviors
Good morning! Happy Friday!
Oil, $VIX and bond yields are all cooling down, and the market is moving higher in premarket. But with ~$9.6T in stock options expiring today, expect volatility. Triple witching can bring some serious sector rotation.
For me, this is one of the most interesting days to watch where money is flowing. Last time we saw strong rotation into Mag 7 and SaaS, the following few months delivered some great moves. If capital starts rotating back into AI, energy, biotech or small caps, it could give us a better idea of which areas may have momentum heading into the next few months.
Stocks I’m watching
→ $GOOG — Finally waking up. Watching the $355–360 old S/R zone. If you’re holding October $360C, today could be a good day to consider taking some profits.
→ $NFLX — Added yesterday for LT. It may see volatility, but I’m treating this as a long-term position and still have room to add if we get weakness.
→ $SPCX — October catalyst ahead. A break above $157 could bring fast mom
Part of Hong Kong's first five year plan to 2030: Why I am now a part owner of physical gold and silver business in Hong Kong. We have vaulting facilities there also. We have just been granted out licence to operate there. More details to follow shortly.
Develop a Commodity Trading Ecosystem. Expedite the Development of an International Gold Trading Market
45. The Government will seize the gold trading market’s momentum and strengthen
its development:
(i) Officially launch Hong Kong’s central clearing and settlement system for gold in the first quarter of 2027.
(ii) The HKEX will announce details of the new RMB‑denominated and physically settled gold futures contracts this year to boost the global influence of the RMB in the pricing of
precious metals.
(iii) The Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Authority optimised its approval mechanism for gold ETFs in July this year, increasing the flexibility of MPF funds investing in gold ETFs.
(iv) The SFC will enhance the regulatory regime for over‑the‑c
SPX Technical Analysis - Spinning Top Candle on Thursday.
Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish Pros:
- Gapped up over 50D MA and technical resistance, as expected, after a reversal
- Maintained the gap and closed on former resistance now support; initial sellers failed to close the gap
Bullish Cons:
- Stopped at the middle Keltner resistance
Need Friday's candle to confirm whether it is bullish (pause) or bear (exhaustion) spinning top.
McClellan Summation Index, the swing trend indicator, still points lower.
Crude Oil (CL) Short Cycles
