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US Commercial Real Estate and Regional-Bank Exposure

The graphic highlights the financial pressures facing US commercial real estate, particularly the office sector, as falling property valuations, elevated vacancy rates and higher refinancing costs create risks for borrowers and regional banks.

According to the figures presented, US commercial real estate values have declined approximately 13% from their 2022 peak, while office-property prices have fallen around 35%. National office vacancy rates remain elevated at 19.2%, compared with a long-term average of approximately 12%, reflecting continued weakness in demand for office space.

A major concern is the approaching refinancing wall. The graphic estimates that approximately $3.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt will mature between 2026 and 2032, with annual maturities peaking at $496 billion in 2029. Meanwhile, average borrowing costs on new commercial real estate loans have increased from approximately 3.1% in 2021 to 6.3% in 2

UPDATE: ALTCOIN GEMS FOR 2027

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$EIGEN

KODE: 01

$EIGEN - WHALE ACCUMULATION ALERT

Wallet simple (BitGo) kini memegang sekitar 221.5M $EIGEN, senilai: $56.1M.

Di wallet ini ? hampir seluruh portofolio wallet ini terkonsentrasi di $EIGEN.

Dari riwayat tersebut ?

Wallet ini terlihat menerima beberapa transfer besar dari Coinbase, termasuk beberapa transaksi sebesar 10M $EIGEN.

Dan sekarang, nilai portofolionya berada di sekitar: ATH dan menembus $56M+

OKTA retesting the megaphone. Fireworks coming next week imho

The Midterm Stall with lagging RUT, surpressed VIX, and SPY near ATH

This overall has been a very atypical midterm and I think most of the reason was the lockout rally in April which is something we usually see in September. So by flipping the script early on we've been in some uncharted area and it hasn't helped with the Iran conflict, oil prices, but then also being on the brink of the AI revolution.

VIX is telling the story of the market not pricing in a drop

There's been days, especially this week, where the VIX has made very little sense when the market is dropping and it's coming down with it. It was weird to see VIX stay at 15 as the market dropped deep red only to get bailed out with a Hormuz tweet. So a big reason I have to still lean towards upside is how much the VIX is really saying to not worry. They are not pricing in a big volatile downside move yet and until we see the VIX start spiking we have to assume more chop/slower October which again is atypical during a normal mid

When In Doubt, Zoom Out

IMO, I don't know how anyone could ever look at this chart right here and think

the bottom is 100% in

this is the start of a new bull market

This looks far more like the end of something

If anything is beginning, it is the first ever secular bear market

This candle closes in 5 days and 11 hours. The indicator below is a momentum index

Momentum persists

meaning, if this rolls over, which it has - momentum can carry this MUCH MUCH lower

The higher momentum swings, the harder the force it swings back down with

Really think logically

EVERYONE thinks Bitcoin has enable some cheat code for wealth. Let it crash, buy a bear market low, and hold. Rinse repeat. Wealth

No

That worked. And people recognized it did Now that it is easy, it won't work

The same way, everyone wants to get in on the newest fashion trend to be cool and "in"

They think look at me I am so unique and original, in the same fashion everyone is into now

At the end, there's people being like 'hey can you believe how co

NDX EW Count

• NDX dropped in three waves for a possible wave iv, which implies one more high for v; this count hinges on wave i being the gap high, with a negligible wave ii, not high confidence though

OKTA bullish retest of the breakout looks complete. Should get the big breakout move now

The cap-weight reading on the S&P is +1.2 this morning, down from +22 Monday. Equal weight is -91. The daily pulse went negative on every index, the S&P, the Nasdaq and the Russell.

Two sectors are still positive. Healthcare at +8 and technology at +5. Financials are -35, with one name breaking out against 36 breaking down. Consumer cyclical -24, industrials -17, real estate and utilities both negative with zero breakouts between them.

Rates are driving the damage. The 10-year is 5.15% and the 30-year is 5.44%, the highest since 2004. Wednesday's five-year auction priced at 5.03%, with the second-largest tail on record and the weakest demand since 2018, and flash PMIs came in at 57 and 58.7, with input costs at a four-year high. Seven-year paper gets sold this afternoon. The MOVE index is at 95, its highest since April. October hike odds are 73%. Mortgage rates just hit a one-year high.

Oil is feeding that rather than offsetting it. Brent closed up 3.9% Wednesday on the same day Saudi Ara

NASDAQ 100 Doble Top Pattern

This is the 4th NDX double top in the past 5 years. The last 3 times didn't end well for NDX.

Will this time be different?

Maybe not, time will tell.

5,000 Years of Interest Rates - Interesting Chart

CYRX HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT SETUP

looking for a push towards the expansion gate at $18.59 to short. Expansion gate is the magnet for B wave termination and we are currently in the QIM Maturation to resolution timing window, so this makes it a high probability setup as both price and time would be aligned.

I really like shorting these expanded flat style structures because it is an inherently contrarian trade and bull trap as everyone buys the breakout, only for it to reverse on them.

had to share this graph.