The latest public Slice posts, articles and creator updates.
Will commodities cause inflation?
My cycle analysis of FRED's PPI – All Commodities data series indicates they will NOT. Overall, commodity prices should remain under downward pressure over the next several years.
This doesn't mean there won't be inflation from other sectors.
Retweet if you understand.
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The evidence gets more damning by the day:
US intelligence concluded that Iran was not rebuilding nuclear enrichment capacities destroyed last year by the US and Israel, contradicting a key justification by Trump for the current Iran war.
Allow for the usual FED announcement related whipsaws.
Remember, the post-FED reaction is usually reversed the next day.
SPX Short-Term Update
What is FED going to do? I do not know. But this is what Elliott wave analysis suggests.
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The Fed's next move drops at 2 p.m. ET, don't look away.
We're getting fresh economic projections and a decision on rates, immediately followed by Powell's press conference.
Last December, the Fed signaled one rate cut for 2026. If that outlook changes today, even to zero cuts or a surprise hike, the market will react fast.
And keep an eye on any hints from Powell about his future, since his term as chairman wraps in May but he could stay on the board.
Analysts widely expect rates to stay at 3.5%–3.75% for the second meeting in a row, despite last year's three rapid cuts.
How are you positioned if the Fed pivots unexpectedly?
Markets just got a wake-up call.
February PPI surged 0.7%, more than double expectations. Stocks instantly took a hit, while crude oil held its ground as tensions flare in the Gulf with ongoing Iranian attacks.
Everyone's focused on the Fed, but inflation and geopolitics are hijacking the narrative.
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I'm going to short VOLX off the open tomorrow. Likely see Oil collapse and get our final risk on move before the disaster
Forex - EURUSD EW Count Alternatives
EURUSD can be counted as topped in Oct'25. But that could also be green circle-b. In the latter case one more lower low can complete green circle-c of 4, which would require one more high in wave 5 later this year.
Structurally, I prefer the black count, but if the red count is operational for DXY, then the green count in EURUSD has a chance.
Primary ETHUSD Elliott Wave Count
I expect ETH to make one more low in wave 5 to complete circle-C of a giant triangle, then up in circle-D.
Bitcoin 80-Day Cycle Price Projection
BTC has just generated an 80D cycle target of approximately 80,150-85,800.
FOMC Preview — Where Conviction Stands Right Now
Heading into tomorrow's Fed decision, we wanted to share a snapshot from one of our back-end tools called the Conviction Engine. It scores all 502 S&P 500 stocks on a scale from -100 to +100 using six different factors: momentum, value, institutional flow, trend quality, liquidity risk, and more. Think of it as a way to measure where the weight of the evidence is leaning across the entire market at any given time.
Here's what it's flashing right now.
The macro read: Neutral with a bullish transition forming underneath. But it comes with some warning flags.
139 stocks are sitting in SELL territory. Only 52 are STRONG BUY. Average RSI across the index is 46.9, which is below 50. Just over half of the S&P is above its 200-day moving average.
The sectors tell the real story.
Energy and Utilities are running the table. Zero sell signals in either sector. Energy is averaging a +59 conviction score. Utilities at +51. These are not momentum-chaser sec
SPX Update
SPX almost closed the gap fully and reached the 61.8% retracement fib. Could it make one more push higher? Sure, but it was close enough.
Gold: Preferred Elliott Wave Count
