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Republic Research / ARTICLE

FOMC Preview — Where Conviction Stands Right Now Heading into tomorrow's Fed decision, we wanted to share a snapshot from one of our back-end tools called the Conviction Engine. It scores all 502 S&P 500 stocks on a scale from -100 to +100 using six different factors: momentum, value, institutional flow, trend quality, liquidity risk, and more. Think of it as a way to measure where the weight of the evidence is leaning across the entire market at any given time. Here's what it's flashing right now. The macro read: Neutral with a bullish transition forming underneath. But it comes with some warning flags. 139 stocks are sitting in SELL territory. Only 52 are STRONG BUY. Average RSI across the index is 46.9, which is below 50. Just over half of the S&P is above its 200-day moving average. The sectors tell the real story. Energy and Utilities are running the table. Zero sell signals in either sector. Energy is averaging a +59 conviction score. Utilities at +51. These are not momentum-chaser sectors. This is a defensive, value-driven rotation. Meanwhile, Financials, Healthcare, and Real Estate are all net negative. The top conviction names right now? APA (+93.8), Micron (+84.5), Dell (+82.8), Phillips 66 (+81.7), Devon Energy (+80.2). Cheap stocks with momentum. That's where the engine says the edge is. On the short side: Visa, Mastercard, Stryker, Ameriprise. All overvalued and losing steam. Here's the part worth paying attention to. 58 stocks in the S&P are expensive AND falling. Names like Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Thermo Fisher (TMO), and Carvana (CVNA). That's a lot of names that got bid up and are now rolling over. On top of that, nearly 80 stocks are showing one thing on the surface (prices still holding) while the underlying momentum is quietly fading. The engine is picking up a disconnect between what the market looks like and what it's actually doing underneath. Historically, that kind of divergence has preceded some rough patches. Something to think about before Powell steps to the mic tomorrow.

Published Mar 17, 2026Updated Mar 17, 20265 min read
FOMC Preview — Where Conviction Stands Right Now Heading into tomorrow's Fed decision, we wanted to share a snapshot from one of our back-end tools called the Conviction Engine. It scores all 502 S&P 500 stocks on a scale from -100 to +100 using six different factors: momentum, value, institutional flow, trend quality, liquidity risk, and more. Think of it as a way to measure where the weight of the evidence is leaning across the entire market at any given time. Here's what it's flashing right now. The macro read: Neutral with a bullish transition forming underneath. But it comes with some warning flags. 139 stocks are sitting in SELL territory. Only 52 are STRONG BUY. Average RSI across the index is 46.9, which is below 50. Just over half of the S&P is above its 200-day moving average. The sectors tell the real story. Energy and Utilities are running the table. Zero sell signals in either sector. Energy is averaging a +59 conviction score. Utilities at +51. These are not momentum-chaser sectors. This is a defensive, value-driven rotation. Meanwhile, Financials, Healthcare, and Real Estate are all net negative. The top conviction names right now? APA (+93.8), Micron (+84.5), Dell (+82.8), Phillips 66 (+81.7), Devon Energy (+80.2). Cheap stocks with momentum. That's where the engine says the edge is. On the short side: Visa, Mastercard, Stryker, Ameriprise. All overvalued and losing steam. Here's the part worth paying attention to. 58 stocks in the S&P are expensive AND falling. Names like Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Thermo Fisher (TMO), and Carvana (CVNA). That's a lot of names that got bid up and are now rolling over. On top of that, nearly 80 stocks are showing one thing on the surface (prices still holding) while the underlying momentum is quietly fading. The engine is picking up a disconnect between what the market looks like and what it's actually doing underneath. Historically, that kind of divergence has preceded some rough patches. Something to think about before Powell steps to the mic tomorrow.