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Solar Cycles vs. Financial Markets

Solar activity is strongly correlated with financial markets.

Sunspot peaks often coincide with peaks in various financial markets, such as stocks, gold, and crypto.

Stock market lows typically precede or occur simultaneously with sunspot lows. Based on the projected evolution of the solar cycle, the next major stock market low is expected around 2030. Interestingly, this aligns with my analysis of longer-term stock market cycles.

Ethereum vs Bitcoin ETHBTC 1M Analysis: Could Alts Be Ready To Shine?

I genuinely cannot believe I am saying this, but if the ETHBTC chart is telling the truth, it is hinting at huge altcoin overperformance against Bitcoin.

I really don't understand why we'd get such a huge risk-on situation, so maybe these signals fail by the end of the month. There are 15 more days until the close so I a lot can happen.

However, if these signals breakout before the month is over, or in the coming months, alts will do well compared to BTC. I don't know if this is a BTC pumps less or falls harder situation, but it does look like there's a very good longer-term swing trade ready in ETHBTC.

This means you would want to own more spot ETH than BTC and move your BTC into ETH. Or you'd long ETHBTC if you expected ETH to overperform BTC.

A bull flag is potentially about to break out right below the Bollinger Band basis on the monthly. The RSI is working on trying again on a downtrend line that's had several stron

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE

Global Liquidity slipped again last week down to US$188.9T, according to the latest flash estimates. Short‑term momentum has softened, with the 3‑month annualised growth rate registering 4.3% - well below the 6.0% pace seen two weeks ago. The decline reflects ongoing USD recovery, weaker collateral values and rising bond market volatility.

The 12‑month growth rate also moderated, falling to 7.4% from 8.1% a week earlier as the base effect from last year’s liquidity downturn continues to fade.

Liquidity levels remain elevated but have likely peaked. Weakening liquidity conditions will weigh negatively on risk asset markets

1. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions)

• Latest level: $188.89T, down from $189.09T last week and below the $189.30T level of two weeks ago
• 12‑month growth: 7.4%, down from 8.1%
• 3‑month annualised growth: 4.3%, up modestly from 3.9%, but still below the 6.0% rate recorded two weeks earlier

Interpretation: liquidity is drifting lower, with trend deceleration

MARKET REVIEW

I got the EURUSD EW count slightly wrong which was why i made a few mistakes late last week with positioning. Good news is that now I'm very confident in my read on this which is super important considering it is driving the entire market. This wave 5 ended up having an extended 5th wave which was why the market was so risk off late last week. Usually extended 5th get a strong retracement afterwards which is exactly what I'm expecting tomorrow with a nice risk on rally and potential short squeeze.

Likely get a pull back into FOMC so I will be looking to hedge my longs a little late tomorrow in preparation for that as I would like to hold the positions into the top on Friday. Once EURUSD reaches around 1.16695 that will be the time to execute the strategy for the coming disaster because the final wave 5 down for EURUSD will cause the EM carry trades to unwind aggressively.

All of this should line up perfectly with Crude as they're both moving in lockstep. So i will be looki

Silver - Weekly Chart Cycles

The weekly chart cycle composite points down toward 2029, with an intervening bounce in 2027 as a possibility.

Silver: 40-Day Cycle Target

Guide for the Google Sheet

Have updated a guide for the document so you can see and get explanations of what each section means. You can also click into it to find it faster.

I've also added an Updates section below it so that if I add something to the Google Doc you can see the last time I made an update and what it was.

To find the current Google Sheet: FOLDERS > CURRENT GOOGLE SHEET

Bitcoin BTCUSD Low Timeframe Updates: Almost There

Hopefully you can see based on how long this is taking to turn into something actionable that sometimes sitting and waiting is the best bet. Patience pays, remember that.

1H

The RSI broke up from a downtrend line on the 1H, is above the upper BB, and attempting to hold after a breakout. We could walk the bands upward on the 1H. Ideally the RSI gets above 70 asap.

4H

BTC is above the 4H upper Bollinger Band, and is working on a 4H RSI breakout from a downtrend. We want to see the RSI make a higher high and move above 70

1D

Same thing, RSI breaking out from downtrend line, but less meaningful than a higher high. Higher high is a better buy trigger. Must be on a closing basis, but if we get strength we can enter on strength. Upper Bollinger Band is now at $72,650, so the real buy signals is a decisive close above that.

However, we can use the lower timeframes to get in. It is starting to look good. I still don't quite have the confirmation I woul

Adding URAA...

NIFTY 50 Outlook - Part 1 (Daily Chart)

Investment banks are bullish, with most targeting 28,500–30,000 in 2026. Will they be wrong again?

NSEI has satisfied all cycle targets on the daily chart, and the cycle composite indicates that a reversal is due. However, momentum is still down, as per cRSI.

I'd like to see a positive cRSI divergence for a 2-3 month trading opportunity.

What about the longer term? Stay tuned for weekly and monthly chart analysis in Parts 2 and 3.

really would like QQQ to fill this gap tomorrow

SHORT - EVERYTHING IS GOING TO COLLAPSE