SOX - 16-Week Cycle
· Note that the last Hurst nominal 20W (16W actual) cycle was much stronger, 3x-5x, than in the previous periods.
It is possible that in the next period the amplitude of this cycle may weaken.
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The latest FX forecast still favours EUR, but the breakdown matters: the signal is being driven by trend, valuation, and regime, not by carry. GBP also remains constructive, though its support comes more from regime and valuation than from a fully aligned factor set. SEK and SGD continue to screen positively, with trend a key driver in both.
In contrast, CAD remains soft on weak regime and valuation, while JPY is still being held back primarily by carry. In EM, ZAR stands out on strong carry and trend, and KRW remains constructive thanks to a strong trend signal despite negative carry.
Ask me anything
EIA report due at 10:30 am EST today
Cushing oil inventories are expected to come at ~19m barrels for last week, already ~1m barrels below the critical 20m threshold. This means that chances Cushing hits the 18m barrels rock bottom this week are significant (the number will be public in next week's EIA report)
Oil futures continue drifting lower on very low volumes; WTI traded 50% less than usual on Tuesday after the long weekend. Surely a sign that only algorithmic traders are left in the market, but also a sign the market might be grinding to an abrupt halt once Cushing tank bottoms are hit.
I believe volatility can spike at any moment once it's undeniable that, despite Trump's relentless rhetoric, the MoU with Iran is not resulting in a full reopening of the SoH traffic and quick return to normal of the supply in the market. Furthermore, speculative short positioning in the oil market, both retail and institutional, remains extreme above and beyond previously observed all-time highs.
NDX Cycle Price Targets
· NDX has 18td and 12-td cycles to new highs.
· The latter will likely be invalidated today, barring a very strong rally, as even a sideways-to-up move will cause the signal line to cross the gray 12td cycle FLD.
Rout in AI/Chip Sector - Broad Rotation Underneath
I have been "beathing the dead horse" about SOX topping - it likely rolled over today
A sharp selloff in semiconductors (led by memory chip weakness in South Korea) spilled over into U.S. markets. KOSPI was down 10%
The Nasdaq fell 3% and chips 7% dragging the S&P 500 lower while the Dow and broader market showed relative resilience.
long SQQQ - should be time for the big collapse now with USDJPY breaking out
Sold 100%
ProShares - UltraPro Short QQQ
23 Jun
LONGInvested Capital
31.4%
Buying Price
36.98$
Selling Price
40.45$
ROI
9.38%
DXY 6M Higher Highs + Higher Lows + Retests & RSI Signals
The DXY 6M chart shows a clean retest of a downtrend channel breakout. Past retests of important support levels combined with the RSI holding above 50 leads to continuation
I think this ends up being a big deal and no one is paying attention to this move
Financials ETF ($XLF) - Dominant Cycle
- The dominant 39-week cycle is showing more strength ahead in July, but then down into Dec'26
- It is a bit different from indices which have the nominal 40W cycle peaking about now
- Notice at the bottom that it is running "hot" now, the second strongest over the last 6 periods
The Bank of Japan is currently fighting with teeth and nails to defend the JPY
Trust in London and New York is evaporating:
Global central banks are removing gold from vaults in London and New York as they become increasingly concerned about storing bullion outside their own borders
India and France are among those that have relocated huge volumes of gold out of the US and UK in the past year to store domestically.
Not only are fewer central banks currently storing Gold in London and in New York year-on-year but increasingly nations are switching to domestic storage or via diversified overseas storage locations.
This is also going to seriously impact the paper price of Gold in the West as the collateral they use, via overseas Gold stored in London and New York, will no longer be possible.
Bitcoin's Hurst Nominal 40-Week Cycle
BTCUSD 37-week cycle is rolling over toward a trough in October.
It's among weaker compared to the past 5 periods.
NQ Cycle Peak O'clock
NASDAQ 100 futures are ripe for a reversal, as per 3 dominant cycles on the daily chart.
HUGEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.............
Kody Technolab Secures Exclusive Worldwide Manufacturing Mandate for its Medigo Range of AI-Powered Healthcare Screening Robots
The agreement is structed for 3 year binding the buyer to purchase minimum Robots biannually
This gives Kody revenue visibility for at least 3 years
Link of the press release: https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/KODY_22062026151451_Press_Release_Kody.pdf
Hope everyone had a good long weekend, and a happy belated Father's Day to the dads out there. With markets closed Friday for Juneteenth, here's where things stand coming into the week.
Last week was volatile. The Fed turned hawkish on Wednesday, taking rate cuts off the table and signaling a possible hike, and stocks sold off hard. The selling didn't last. By Thursday the market had erased the entire drop, led by the semiconductors (Intel rose almost 11% on news it would build chips in the US with Apple) and small caps, which closed at a record. The week finished higher than it started.
The trend is in solid shape coming in, with all three major indexes still pointed higher. The open this morning was soft, concentrated in the large-cap names, but the selling pressure has eased since the bell. Small caps are leading, the broad market is roughly flat, and energy is higher as oil ticks up on renewed Middle East tension over the weekend.
The week's two big tests come midweek. Micron reports
