First genuinely bearish chart I have sen in a long time... personal income is down in the US
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given the potential for a strong risk on mone on Tuesday/Wednesday, BTC might not have completed this correction. Would not be syrprised to see 61400 today and then a bounce toiwards 68250
SPX Time Cycles
· The early June peak coincided with a cycle peak confluence of multiple cycles.
· While longer cycles have turned down, or are doing so, the cycle picture is especially complex next week for some dominant long cycles.
· In the next few days we have the following estimated peaks and troughs: 1. 122.4td peak (green diamond); 2) 58.9td trough (orange diamond), and 3) 186.6td peak (red diamond); It is not very clear how this will play out, but one could argue more upside bias early this week based on these three cycles.
· Then all should head down toward the trough of the 77.3td cycle about 7/13/26, which is relatively strong and could produce a bounce going against these other cycles.
Note: the triangles and diamonds in the top panel correspond to individual cycle peaks and troughs for short and long cycles, respectively. The color codes are provided in the legend.
SPX Technical Indicators
· I track several technical indicators tuned to the 77td cycle which has relatively strongest impact on intermediate-term price swings.
· They deteriorated significantly in the last two weeks and even if SPX makes a higher high, they will likely exhibit strong negative divergences.
· Incredible momentum since the end of March is fading.
Crude Oil (CL) - 3 Dominant Cycles
- CL has been dropping since March following the three dominant cycles faithfully. The war and Hormuz news has been creating small wiggles but the trend was down, aside from daily news noise.
- Based on these 3 cycles, should form a trough of sorts in several weeks and bounce in August. The key word is "bounce."
JPM Target met!
Altcoin Gems: Layer-1 $SEI 💎
The deeper I research $SEI, the clearer it becomes why this blockchain was built specifically for trading. While some major blockchains still charge over $0.17 per transaction, $SEI averages just ~$0.00041.
• Faster execution
• Near-zero fees
• Built for massive scale
• Privacy narrative on the horizon
On a per-transaction basis, the difference may seem small.
But for high-volume traders, those savings compound quickly, making cost efficiency a major advantage.
What's even more interesting is that despite being backed by major investors such as Bitget, Circle Ventures, and Jump Crypto with $85M raised, approximately 60.5% of the token supply has already been unlocked.
The next unlock on July 15, 2026, is only 55.6M $SEI (~$3.07M), relatively small compared to the current size of the ecosystem.
📍 Entry: $0.53 – $0.49
❌ Invalidation: Below $0.42
🎯 Take Profit: $0.60 – $0.72
$SEI isn't just another Layer-1. It's a blockchain optimized for trading. 🚀
NQ - Potential Inverse H&S Pattern
- NQ might be forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, in support of the green count
- The target will depend on the exact crossing of the neckline, but as you could see from 3 assumed crossings, the differences are small
- Notably, the shown speculative targets rhyme with cycle price projections
Market down 600 points and
Onida up...Now did't I keep saying time and again, MIRC should be bought?
It was cheap at 25 -30 and even now it cheap.... and not in SME
Repono and United Heat were buyer along with GE Power in down market, which is a correction....
Sharika too was buyer, along with Tirth Plastic.
SPX - 3 Dominant Cycles
- I already presented a cycle composite when all "reliable" cycles are included in the cycle composite
- This chart shows the three dominant cycles on the daily chart
- 15W and 24W have already curled down, and 37W cycle will roll over in a few days.
- When all three point in the same direction, we get sharper price movement
- Of course, there are several other shorter and longer cycles that matter but these are most important ones
Warsh's first Fed meeting: a regime change on two fronts at once (Repost from X)
The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% today — a fourth straight hold. But the hold buried the real story. Kevin Warsh used his debut to signal a hawkish turn AND rewire how the Fed talks to markets.
The hawkish surprise. Trump appointed Warsh to cut. Instead, the committee signaled a hike is ahead — nearly every member now expects to hike or hold, with only one official penciling a cut this year. The driver: inflation from the Iran war, with May CPI at 4.2%. Median dot now sees rates at 3.8% by year-end — implying one hike, then a long hold.
"Regime change," literally. Warsh announced five task forces to rethink core areas of monetary policy — communications, the balance sheet, productivity & jobs, and inflation frameworks. The charge: "start with first principles, ask hard questions... propose next steps." He'd promised regime change. Today he meant it.
No forward guidance. This is the big one for traders. Warsh s
SOX Cycle Price Target
- SOX 18td price target is in the upper range of the target box on the Elliott wave chart
- The 261.8% Fibonacci expansion target is right inside it
How Do I Calculate Targets
Uptrend Example (Downtrend Reverse)
(A) Upside targets, 2 methods:
- Fibonacci expansions for the assumed Elliott wave structure (I think I had a lesson on that, and will try to repost it when I find it), for example, the most typical target for wave 3 is the fib expansion 1.618% of 1-2, but it could be also 1.382%, 200% and in extended 3rd waves even 2.618%
- Using the cycle price projections which have accuracy of >70% hit rate; as the trend evolves, higher and higher targets trigger, keeping us in trade. When the highest possible target is achieved, it is a sign of mature trend and apending reversal
(B) Downside targets
- It is generally premature to talk about downtrend targets before there is a clear top indication.
- Assuming a top is in place, one can use Fibonacci targets for retracements. For example, if the high was wave 3, an ideal retrace of 3 is 38.2%, but it could also be 23.6% or 50%. Ideal wave 1 retracement is 61.8%, but it could be also 50% or 78.6%.
- Once
Dr Copper Topped
Cycles warned 3-4 weeks ago about copper due for a reversal.
Seems cycles were right. Copper should struggle at least a few months.
Cycles do not lie!
