The latest FX forecast still favours EUR , but the breakdown matters: the signal is being driven by trend, valuation, and regime , not by carry. GBP also remains constructive, though its support comes more from regime and valuation than from a fully aligned factor set. SEK and SGD continue to screen positively, with trend a key driver in both. In contrast, CAD remains soft on weak regime and valuation , while JPY is still being held back primarily by carry . In EM, ZAR stands out on strong carry and trend , and KRW remains constructive thanks to a strong trend signal despite negative carry.
