The latest FX forecast still favours EUR, but the breakdown matters: the signal is being driven by trend, valuation, and regime, not by carry. GBP also remains constructive, though its support comes more from regime and valuation than from a fully aligned factor set. SEK and SGD continue to screen positively, with trend a key driver in both.
In contrast, CAD remains soft on weak regime and valuation, while JPY is still being held back primarily by carry. In EM, ZAR stands out on strong carry and trend, and KRW remains constructive thanks to a strong trend signal despite negative carry.
