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SPX-to-VIX Ratio

§  How to use SPX/VIX?

§  In range markets, it pinballs between the Keltner channel boundaries (or Bollinger Band boundaries), flagging overbought/oversold conditions and potential reversal points.

§  In strongly trending markets, it moves between the mid-channel and outer boundaries, and such behavior is an indication of a strong trend, similarly to when RSI is embedded in the oversold/overbought range.

§  Right now, the ratio is headed toward the upper Keltner.

§  Since we are still in a sideways market, I expect the ratio to reverse from the upper Keltner or from not much away from it. This should align with a short-term SPX reversal.



Three central banks raised rates inside of eight days, and the market went up. That tells you what's actually driving this tape, and it isn't the Fed. It's the price of oil.


Yesterday JPMorgan's commodity desk, the one the rest of the Street reads, put out a note saying it no longer has a baseline view on oil. First time since the war started. Their words: "We simply don't know how to model the endgame." Every threshold they assumed would force a deal has been crossed. $100 crude didn't do it. $5 gasoline didn't. Four percent inflation and a 10-year over 5% didn't. Ten million barrels a day are disrupted and there's no exit in sight.


Their fair value on Brent is $90. It trades at $106. That's $16 of fear in every barrel, and fear is the one input that can leave overnight. The State Department approved visas yesterday for Iran's president and foreign minister to attend the UN meeting in New York next week. That's the first door either side has opened in months.


So both tails are live. A he

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Read this POST 3-4 Times---

Please members don't try to buy stock as it is down.

Stock which has lost market interest, why you want to buy?

Just because it is down? That is wrong Mindset.

Now there is diff between stock down by 70-80 % and down by 30-40%.

You can't buy Kore Digital but you can average GVPIL.

Both are down, but Kore Digital has lost market favor, while GVPIL is still where market interest is seen. It is in new Bull phase, in rerating phase.

New Bull Phase, new stocks. And I have discussed new stocks which are pure new and some old, but they becomes new as they didn't participate in last Bull Run, like GVPIL, Unihealth, Shree Hari, Resonance, etc......so they become now new stock that will participate in new Bull run.



Patience: The Market Makes These Moments Difficult


What you see on the left is nested 1-2 / 1-2 behavior


This happens right before an impulse


This is essentially the "we are so back" on low timeframes, which charge up the intensity pf the higher timeframes


the more low timeframe nested 1-2s we get, the bigger the impulse


This looks like more in less time than the comparison


But that means there is a lot of confusion and "we are so back" moments. The market is trying to shake everyone out of the positions before the big trade


That's part of what makes the move so impulsive. Everyone shaken out then has to chase


take a look at the analog and think about the behaviors

Good morning! Happy Friday!


Oil, $VIX and bond yields are all cooling down, and the market is moving higher in premarket. But with ~$9.6T in stock options expiring today, expect volatility. Triple witching can bring some serious sector rotation.


For me, this is one of the most interesting days to watch where money is flowing. Last time we saw strong rotation into Mag 7 and SaaS, the following few months delivered some great moves. If capital starts rotating back into AI, energy, biotech or small caps, it could give us a better idea of which areas may have momentum heading into the next few months.


Stocks I’m watching


→ $GOOG — Finally waking up. Watching the $355–360 old S/R zone. If you’re holding October $360C, today could be a good day to consider taking some profits.


→ $NFLX — Added yesterday for LT. It may see volatility, but I’m treating this as a long-term position and still have room to add if we get weakness.


→ $SPCX — October catalyst ahead. A break above $157 could bring fast mom

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Part of Hong Kong's first five year plan to 2030: Why I am now a part owner of physical gold and silver business in Hong Kong. We have vaulting facilities there also. We have just been granted out licence to operate there. More details to follow shortly.


Develop a Commodity Trading Ecosystem. Expedite the Development of an International Gold Trading Market



45. The Government will seize the gold trading market’s momentum and strengthen

its development:


(i) Officially launch Hong Kong’s central clearing and settlement system for gold in the first quarter of 2027.


(ii) The HKEX will announce details of the new RMB‑denominated and physically settled gold futures contracts this year to boost the global influence of the RMB in the pricing of

precious metals.


(iii) The Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Authority optimised its approval mechanism for gold ETFs in July this year, increasing the flexibility of MPF funds investing in gold ETFs.


(iv) The SFC will enhance the regulatory regime for over‑the‑c

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SPX Technical Analysis - Spinning Top Candle on Thursday.


Bullish or Bearish?

Bullish Pros:
- Gapped up over 50D MA and technical resistance, as expected, after a reversal
- Maintained the gap and closed on former resistance now support; initial sellers failed to close the gap
Bullish Cons:
- Stopped at the middle Keltner resistance

Need Friday's candle to confirm whether it is bullish (pause) or bear (exhaustion) spinning top.


McClellan Summation Index, the swing trend indicator, still points lower.


today should confirm the daily bull div for RSP. Breadth of the market looks to have bottomed. I'm open to this blowoff top that might be developing for wave 5, although I'm not convinced, given the structure of IWM which is impulsive to the downside. Both options remain on the table, next week should confirm which one it is!

NDX EW Update #2

  • This bigger leading diagonal is a possibility
  • It is too early to rely heavily on it; it would be speculative, but good to keep in mind

Good morning!

Market is gapping up, but the macro backdrop is still not favorable. We need to see whether this strength can hold. Personally, I like using a strong morning gap after a catalyst as an opportunity to take some profit and then watch how the rest of the day develops.

Today’s close could have a big impact on tomorrow, with triple witching potentially bringing higher volatility. If we close above key resistance/SR zones, we could see further upside; if we close below them, a deeper pullback is possible. I’ll be watching closely and updating levels throughout the day.

$SPY levels

$761.20–$762.40 = key resistance

Above that, $766 could come quickly
Keep SL around $757

$CRDO
$167.90 is the key level. If it breaks and holds, I can see a potential move toward $200+ over the next few weeks. This would be a status-quo change, so I’ll be watching the confirmation carefully.

$APP
Building support around $322.35 with resistance at $334.44. Need a close above $334.44 for a bigger move higher.

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Short AAPL - medium probability trade setup as price is in the golden pocket but no QIM timing for confirmation. looking to hold for a couple weeks

Bought 100%

Nothing invalidated but i want to roll position into JNUG

Apple Inc.

Apple Inc.

16 Sep

CLOSEDSHORT

Invested Capital

13.9%

Selling Price

315.3$

Buying Price

332.4$

ROI

-5.43%