$SPY - This is the major trendline we want to see holding. We still have time to close it above or make it look a little better but this is where it starts to get more concerning for stocks. We have $NVDA earnings on Wednesday and if that isn't a big win or green day that could just be another catalyst that gets people to derisk and sell.
I think this is a good time to start finding some levels that you would want to buy stock at and wait to see if those hit. I won't be adding anymore unless we see a momentum swing back into the channel or if we can get a $NVDA rally that raises the markets again.
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Bitcoin looking like a retest of the breakout. You can see this level is key because it is the open of the weekly candle from the March breakdown, I call these control bars, because they are often in control of price action. So far it is bouncing there and has 18h level 2 bullish exhaustion. So will be looking for a nice bounce this week.
It really needs to go vertical to stop this 10D volatility from expanding to the downside, chance this was a headfake below the BB before a powerful reversal but remains to be seen
Sometimes my post look harsh, sometimes my reply look harsh.
It look that way, because I am changing your mindset.
I am changing the way you were looking in past.
So instead of getting offended, take it as a learning process.
I will never have any intention of offending anyone.
I sometimes post the query and reply.
That is only for others to learn.
Weekly Crypto Recap and Friday Thoughts
Bullish case:
$BTC has seen over $5.3 billion in net inflows
Post halving 4 year cycle still is in play for Q1 of 2026
Money supply is up, still a good hedge against the dollar
$BTC holding above the 200 day EMA
Fear and Greed near all time lows
Bear case:
Fear of historical drawdowns of 70% (although many argue ETFs and liquidity make that less likely)
Decrease chance of December fed rate cuts, down to 53%
Fear of 2026 recession causing some to derisk
Lack of catalysts
News:
Crypto has seen over 1 trillion erased from the total crypto market. It was up 2 trillion since the April lows.
Price broke $100k going as low as $96,000
XRP ETF went live November 13th
96 of the top 100 coins today are red today
US Government is back open
EU regulatory push to centralize crypto oversight
Japan eases up on regulations such as allowing leveraged products for crypto
Charts do not predict future prices.
Charts show where prices have been, the POSSIBLE path of least resistance and POSSIBLE zones for concentrated buying and selling. A good macro analysis will eventually tell you the final destination and charts can be a decent roadmap at times. IOW I use charts to help my trading, rarely to establish a forthcoming trend
This Is how I usually trade. First of all, identify the trend of an asset. Trends can last months or years. Take a core position (either long or short). Size it accordingly. This is an important part of success. You can’t be right abt the trend but if you oversize (too much leverage), you can be forced to liquidate
Zoom Call - 14th November 3pm EST Time.
Paul is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
Topic: Slice Zoom Call - 14th November 2025
Time: Nov 14, 2025 09:00 PM Amsterdam
Join Zoom Meeting
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89880925914?pwd=2GFZwiGihSGAXPtX5W16akix6N8yTe.1
$LAR - (Lithium stock play) Have been following this one since $LAC. Got through November 10th earnings and it appears to have done well. It's back above the trend line and it's looking more convincing to buy. Especially since we are seeing it green on a day that's red.
I don't think it's something I want to add yet but it's definitely on the top of my watchlist. I think if we can see the market get some optimism and momentum going again I'd feel better riding it back to $5.5.
$LAC seems to keep dropping so might wait to see where that finds support as well to get double confirmation on bidding on $LAR.
I would suggest doing another zoom call at 3pm EST tomorrow.
It is difficult to schedule a time suitable for everyone given we have people in Australia and also in the US and everywhere in between.
For those in the EST timezone logically we will have to do weekends because evenings for you is too late for me.
Why eternal vol short. It's back at the breakout level of 300 after multiple attempts and failures. The vols are just decent enough both in Nov/Dec. Chose Dec for taking time in hand as with current Nov vols, would be very difficult to manage if it starts moving sharply. My expectation is it might take support again in the range of 290-295 and consolidate here for some time.
$ANKR - Spent some more time hunting down another 50 charts and this is the best looking one I could find next that even offers a tight stop loss of 7% to gamble on in. Looks very similar to $UNI and $LSK.
Again just playing these as I see them and right as momentum is starting to show up instead of playing dead charts waiting for them to get started.
$ETH - Don't think it looks as bad as all the panic it's getting. Still in a downtrend and we haven't started an official reversal yet but there's some decent supports holding up for now.
Obviously if these break we will see another steep correction but so far OBV already is looking better than it was before the bigger sell off and some trend lines are still holding.
