Weekly Crypto Recap and Friday Thoughts
Bullish case:
$BTC has seen over $5.3 billion in net inflows
Post halving 4 year cycle still is in play for Q1 of 2026
Money supply is up, still a good hedge against the dollar
$BTC holding above the 200 day EMA
Fear and Greed near all time lows
Bear case:
Fear of historical drawdowns of 70% (although many argue ETFs and liquidity make that less likely)
Decrease chance of December fed rate cuts, down to 53%
Fear of 2026 recession causing some to derisk
Lack of catalysts
News:
Crypto has seen over 1 trillion erased from the total crypto market. It was up 2 trillion since the April lows.
Price broke $100k going as low as $96,000
XRP ETF went live November 13th
96 of the top 100 coins today are red today
US Government is back open
EU regulatory push to centralize crypto oversight
Japan eases up on regulations such as allowing leveraged products for crypto