Stocks finished higher Friday after a weak jobs report. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Russell 2000 gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq added 1.2% after touching a record during the session.
Momentum is stronger than where we left it Friday. Cap-weighted readings are positive on all three indexes coming into today. The S&P is at +65.7, the Russell at +15 and the Nasdaq at +9.8. Equal weight is still negative on the S&P at -32 and the Russell at -31.
Tech is the only S&P sector with more breakouts than breakdowns, 29 to 4. Financials have 32 breakdowns and no breakouts. Consumer cyclicals have 21 and real estate has 14. The biggest stocks are carrying the indexes. Most of the market hasn't followed. Futures are flat ahead of the open.
Bonds didn't join the rally. The 10-year fell to 5.18% after the jobs report and closed the day at 5.28%, above Thursday's 5.24%. It's at 5.27% now.
Odds of an October rate hike fell to about 20%, from 28% Friday morning. A December hike is still priced as more likely than not.
The G7 agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude and fuel over four months. A large share of the diesel goes out in the first 20 days. Trump then said the U.S. was never going to ban diesel exports.
The Houthis said Sunday they hit Saudi Aramco sites near Riyadh and at the Khurais oil field. The Saudi-led coalition called the claims misleading. Brent is near $101, down about 1% from Friday's close.
France's 10-year yield premium over Germany hit its widest since 2011 on Friday. The government files its 2027 budget tomorrow.
The Treasury sells $119 billion of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year debt Tuesday through Thursday. The last 5-year auction, on Sept 23, was one of the weakest on record. The Fed releases the minutes from its September hike on Wednesday.
New trades belong in tech. The Nasdaq is the only index where equal weight is positive too, at +13. Selling put spreads there makes sense, with expirations that end before each company reports.
Financials, real estate and consumer cyclicals can wait until the breakdowns stop. The big banks report next Tuesday.
