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Very happy with the way Siltronic has traded through the turbulence of this month... a good sign that the catch up trade for wafers relative to DRAM looks like holding water.

Despite the "optimism" the markets are still maintaining VERY strong momentum in upstream oil and gas, fertilizer, and agricultural... Those appear to be longer-term conviction moves.

Financials and real estate the worst...

My Thesis on my Investors should buy in Q1, but traders should buy in Q2 (Historically)

Long story short compounding returns and dividends stock benefit from time being held over timing markets (See graphic below). Buying in January for investors outperforms over longer periods with the highest returns based on the simple fact that the US stock market trends up over time and the longer you can hold an investment the more dividends and higher returns.

For traders it looks like the data points Q2 being a better month to start going risk on which makes a lot of sense with March being one of the more volatile months and May and June being some of the more profitable months (November still the most profitable month historically).

March Madness doesn't just apply to basketball, it really looks like since Covid it's been a real thing
The more data I study and analyze in the past the more I come to the same conclusion that March is just a wild month. Every. Single. Year. This could be because of t

Adding this ETF vs individual ETFs to reduce risk during this time of volatility. I still see a path to much higher silver prices towards the fall and into next spring.

I will bring analysis on each of the mining stocks after hours once I get Trading VIew working this week. For now, I just need to get these in the system so you can see the mining stocks I am positioned in. I keep missing the trading window to enter these in as I am slammed daily before market close each day. I am an investor and not a trader and look for long term holds in these stocks. I will share when I am buying, selling, and why.

I will bring analysis on each of the mining stocks after hours once I get Trading VIew working this week. For now, I just need to get these in the system so you can see the mining stocks I am positioned in. I keep missing the trading window to enter these in as I am slammed daily before market close each day. I am an investor and not a trader and look for long term holds in these stocks. I will share when I am buying, selling, and why.

EWW breaking out, just a matter of time before the tweet causes everything to explode higher

RNIT AI is now at 54, Up 35% in 2 months is amongst the very few companies still holding up in this carnage

$SEZL - Really like this one based on TA, FA, and the trend of buy now pay later. Oddly enough going back to trends and what the most influential generation is doing Gen Z is actually using Buy Now Pay Later more than any other generation. Over 70% are using it and they also are using less credit cards than other ones (probably because of age).

Sezl is most popular with the younger age group where the target age is 25. They are the smallest marketcap of all the BNPL companies and they are making consistent net income which is even more than some 10x the marketcap.

Might be able to get a better entry next week so sticking with multiple entries but for now this entry looks good with Supertrend bullish, OBV bullish, and price looking good with good fundamentals and the right amount of narrative.

Crude Oil Long-Term Cycles

The 4 dominant cycles detected on the weekly chart indicate CL cycle peaks in Oct'26 and Jun'28.

The cycle troughs are expected in Jul'27 and Oct'29.

Note:

• Cycle composite estimates further out are less accurate.
• Do not infer price levels from cycle amplitudes. Cycle peaks and troughs are approximate price turning points.

MARKET REVIEW

DXY - nice rejection into the Friday close. The market desynchronised last week, with the selling in risk assets deviating from the DXY weakness. Hence my comments about fear taking over. I think this divergence sets us up nicely this week for risk assets to push higher and squeeze shorts. I'm bullish risk until DXY completes this C wave and hits around 97.9 - 98.27

CRUDE OIL - Pretty clear that the trend is losing momentum. 18H 5EMA-13SMA cloud on the verge of flipping red. The PA since March 10th is not what a trending move typically looks like, suggesting this is still a corrective structure which has yet to bottom. The move towards 65-72 should align with the drop in DXY early this week.

VIX - I think this is the most telling chart of all, everyone puked stocks on Friday and it couldn't even make a HH on a closing basis. It has been teasing this H+S pattern for a couple weeks and I still think the market needs to reset position before the big collapse. I would be wrong i

ETHUSD Weekly - Cycle Degree Triangle

For a big picture context of the previous post.