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IncomeSharks / ARTICLE

My Thesis on my Investors should buy in Q1, but traders should buy in Q2 (Historically) Long story short compounding returns and dividends stock benefit from time being held over timing markets (See graphic below). Buying in January for investors outperforms over longer periods with the highest returns based on the simple fact that the US stock market trends up over time and the longer you can hold an investment the more dividends and higher returns. For traders it looks like the data points Q2 being a better month to start going risk on which makes a lot of sense with March being one of the more volatile months and May and June being some of the more profitable months (November still the most profitable month historically). March Madness doesn't just apply to basketball, it really looks like since Covid it's been a real thing The more data I study and analyze in the past the more I come to the same conclusion that March is just a wild month. Every. Single. Year. This could be because of the cyclical nature since Covid and March starting it, or it could be as simple as the cyclical nature of the 4 year cycle lining up perfectly around the March Triple Witching Day. Once you start mapping out the Triple Witching Days you really start to notice those always line up with events somehow and someway We saw the market form a local bottom last June on the exact witching day. We've seen the last 2024 March witching day lead to a wild Tariff sell off right after. We've seen enough days and events to realize that around these days and weeks before and after there's just chaos. Chaos that is predictable but not avoidable and it might just have to be a golden rule to play the VIX and sit on cash when one approaches. Plenty have marked bottoms, plenty have started massive sell offs, but if there's one behavior of Witching Day patterns that is the most consistent it's that March is the most crazy of them all. Buying in January, February, and March for compounding/dividend stocks As crazy as March can be what's crazier is the long term impact of investing and compounding returns when buying earlier in the year. This is especially important when looking at dividend stocks which will always give you an edge for time being held over trying to time. Buying even when prices are higher in the early part of the year consistently still outperforms buying later in the year trying to time the dips (See data of investing $10k each month at the same time each year). Best months are November, May June This means that buying in Q1 (especially in blood) can often let you benefit from the historically bullish months of November, May, and June. This means that for traders they may do better waiting to go risk on in Q2 closer to April and taking advantage of years where March brings volatility and dips and corrections while being able to benefit from May and June.

Published Mar 24, 2026Updated Mar 24, 20267 min read
My Thesis on my Investors should buy in Q1, but traders should buy in Q2 (Historically) Long story short compounding returns and dividends stock benefit from time being held over timing markets (See graphic below). Buying in January for investors outperforms over longer periods with the highest returns based on the simple fact that the US stock market trends up over time and the longer you can hold an investment the more dividends and higher returns. For traders it looks like the data points Q2 being a better month to start going risk on which makes a lot of sense with March being one of the more volatile months and May and June being some of the more profitable months (November still the most profitable month historically). March Madness doesn't just apply to basketball, it really looks like since Covid it's been a real thing The more data I study and analyze in the past the more I come to the same conclusion that March is just a wild month. Every. Single. Year. This could be because of the cyclical nature since Covid and March starting it, or it could be as simple as the cyclical nature of the 4 year cycle lining up perfectly around the March Triple Witching Day. Once you start mapping out the Triple Witching Days you really start to notice those always line up with events somehow and someway We saw the market form a local bottom last June on the exact witching day. We've seen the last 2024 March witching day lead to a wild Tariff sell off right after. We've seen enough days and events to realize that around these days and weeks before and after there's just chaos. Chaos that is predictable but not avoidable and it might just have to be a golden rule to play the VIX and sit on cash when one approaches. Plenty have marked bottoms, plenty have started massive sell offs, but if there's one behavior of Witching Day patterns that is the most consistent it's that March is the most crazy of them all. Buying in January, February, and March for compounding/dividend stocks As crazy as March can be what's crazier is the long term impact of investing and compounding returns when buying earlier in the year. This is especially important when looking at dividend stocks which will always give you an edge for time being held over trying to time. Buying even when prices are higher in the early part of the year consistently still outperforms buying later in the year trying to time the dips (See data of investing $10k each month at the same time each year). Best months are November, May June This means that buying in Q1 (especially in blood) can often let you benefit from the historically bullish months of November, May, and June. This means that for traders they may do better waiting to go risk on in Q2 closer to April and taking advantage of years where March brings volatility and dips and corrections while being able to benefit from May and June.