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Sonny / ARTICLE

MARKET REVIEW I got the EURUSD EW count slightly wrong which was why i made a few mistakes late last week with positioning. Good news is that now I'm very confident in my read on this which is super important considering it is driving the entire market. This wave 5 ended up having an extended 5th wave which was why the market was so risk off late last week. Usually extended 5th get a strong retracement afterwards which is exactly what I'm expecting tomorrow with a nice risk on rally and potential short squeeze. Likely get a pull back into FOMC so I will be looking to hedge my longs a little late tomorrow in preparation for that as I would like to hold the positions into the top on Friday. Once EURUSD reaches around 1.16695 that will be the time to execute the strategy for the coming disaster because the final wave 5 down for EURUSD will cause the EM carry trades to unwind aggressively. All of this should line up perfectly with Crude as they're both moving in lockstep. So i will be looking to go long Crude on a potential bull div forming around 65-72 in preparation for next weeks unwind which will likely be driven by Oil going to circa 150. Silver is my main focus for trading this week as I think the volatility will provide opportunity in playing both directions. Especially given the edge I have with my read on EURUSD, should do well. Key levels to take profit on Friday are 104 / 117. Let's see how strong the move can be but it's interesting that - just like EURUSD - silver should also have an ABC move this week due to this being a WXY formation. That should complete the counter trend bounce before it collapses next week in the unwind. I will be looking to hedge short at 95 so I can stay in the long trade and then roll those profits back into another long position during FOMC on Wednesday to compound the long position before closing on Friday.

Published Mar 15, 2026Updated Mar 15, 20265 min read
MARKET REVIEW I got the EURUSD EW count slightly wrong which was why i made a few mistakes late last week with positioning. Good news is that now I'm very confident in my read on this which is super important considering it is driving the entire market. This wave 5 ended up having an extended 5th wave which was why the market was so risk off late last week. Usually extended 5th get a strong retracement afterwards which is exactly what I'm expecting tomorrow with a nice risk on rally and potential short squeeze. Likely get a pull back into FOMC so I will be looking to hedge my longs a little late tomorrow in preparation for that as I would like to hold the positions into the top on Friday. Once EURUSD reaches around 1.16695 that will be the time to execute the strategy for the coming disaster because the final wave 5 down for EURUSD will cause the EM carry trades to unwind aggressively. All of this should line up perfectly with Crude as they're both moving in lockstep. So i will be looking to go long Crude on a potential bull div forming around 65-72 in preparation for next weeks unwind which will likely be driven by Oil going to circa 150. Silver is my main focus for trading this week as I think the volatility will provide opportunity in playing both directions. Especially given the edge I have with my read on EURUSD, should do well. Key levels to take profit on Friday are 104 / 117. Let's see how strong the move can be but it's interesting that - just like EURUSD - silver should also have an ABC move this week due to this being a WXY formation. That should complete the counter trend bounce before it collapses next week in the unwind. I will be looking to hedge short at 95 so I can stay in the long trade and then roll those profits back into another long position during FOMC on Wednesday to compound the long position before closing on Friday.