A new feature of Slice is to publish articles - so posting my newsletter here. The US dollar line of Brumby Capital returned 7.5% this month. This compares to 0.6% return for MSCI World. The fund is now up 16% for the y…
February Newsletter
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Israel believes the US is about to walk away from the Iran conflict so intends escalating its own primary targets to include facilities related to Iran’s nuclear program, the production of ballistic missiles and drones, as well as administrative sites
Same setup as yesterday on Nifty - Unable to sustain higher. Initiated put butterfly with short strike pinned around recent lows of 23700ish. Max upside risk at 5-6k.
Where is Oil Going?
The daily CL chart cycle composite, comprising the two dominant cycles, anticipated this move in CL. I alreted Market Twists & Turns subscribers several weeks ago, some may have benefitted nicely.
Though cycles may be less reliable with a heavy geopolitical headlines.
looking for gap fill at 33.78 on HYMC to go long
Quick BTC Update and Quick Lesson: Close Shorts and Different Types of Trades
Technical Analysis and Trade Update
Although this move up is just a small daily move so far, we have moved above the Bollinger Band basis on the daily, which is a sign we want to close our shorts from above the upper BB.
There is now a slightly higher probability that we tap the upper Bollinger Band again first
These next few days and week or two will be tricky, I sense
The market is heavy, but Bitcoin order books are thin and market makers can shake things up for a while
Today's daily candlestick is also a bullish engulfing, so there is likely some more upside now
Price held at former range medium despite deviation move above and rejection. This hints at another attempt at a breakout in my experience
Ichimoku shows the chikou span (dashed grey line) is passing through the candlesticks and Tenkan-sen. This suggests the chikou span would move to the Kijun-sen next, so around $76K. $76K puts BTC back into the daily clo
Breakdown names...
Chinese banks have traded well through this oil spike... makes moves in Korea and Japan look more and more like degrossing...
Converted to 2:6:4 fly.
Potential Bitcoin Double Bottom Price Target
Sideways-to-lower, even allowing for slightly higher this week, and BTC will generate a target of about 61K +/-.
PS: See 26 Feb posts on how to calculate cycle price projections.
Wilshire 5000 Cycle Analysis - Part 3: 7-Year Cycle
The 7Y cycle is the 2nd most dominant on the weekly chart. It's been visible in the stock market for a long time.
It is expected to peak in early 2027, when the 3.5-year cycle is expected to trough. Notably, both cycles will decline simultaneously from 2028 toward their troughs in 2030.
VIX Backwardation - Another View
VIX Weekly Chart Cycle Composite
5 dominant cycle detected on the weekly chart point higher into the Fall of 2026.
Posted at X- I have discussed so many POINTS HERE- so read 3-4 times....
Many times when market is interested in certain stock, price moves first and news comes later.
Eg. When I posted about Jalpaki manf by Krishna Def, one reader questioned, we don't know what is the order worth is? And he took it as a negative, but what he missed is looking at the price.
ગુજરાતીમાં પ્રચલિત કહેવત છે શેરબજારની-
"ભાવ ભગવાન છે."
Now if u don't know this aspect of market, u are definitely going to make mistake of taking positive as negative....
PTC Ind Ltd, also same thing happened. Price went up first, news and performance came later.....
Read the context of this whole post.....don't happen in all stocks.....but as I said at top, where market is interested....and when I say where market is interested, understand whatever you want to.....
Bottomline- If you keep looking at 2+2= 4, you are sure to make mistake.
If you don't watch the price and keep looking at negatives, which are Negative, according to you, but
China and Russia are providing enormous support to Iran and far more than is readily understood.
Will explain in tomorrow's zoom call