$CLX - Now one of my largest positions up double digits. Boring defensive staple stock play that is performing well in these conditions.
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The latest public Slice posts, articles and creator updates.
Bitcoin Signals Potentially Taking Shape on 3D Timeframe
As I mentioned in my post I don't have the best near-term read on Bitcoin. However, as we wait, signals will start to appear.
On the 3D timeframe, which was a primary driver of the explosive down-move, we have a TD9 buy setup. The daily version of this signal was the current local bottom. The 3D firing could lead to the bigger bounce towards mid-$80Ks.
This buy setup is supported by the RSI coming back above 30 (oversold). The RSI will generate a buy signal if it makes a higher high after coming out from below 30. If the 3D closes back below 30, selling could pick up steam and we get another leg down instead.
Price is also currently below the lower Bollinger Bands. A close below isn't great, while closing back inside the bands will support a possible reversal.
This isn't concrete enough, but we will watch these signals closely to get a better idea of if they're bullish or bearish.
Remember, though, the 3D death cross of the 50 and 200M
When CIFR gap fills I will be flipping long into friday. Should get a nice bounce before the big breakdown next week. When playing bounces, you want to play the stronger names. CIFR has defo shown to be the most resilient miner along with HUT
10 Things Traders Must Know Today (Feb 11, 2026)
1. NFP Day. Finally.
The delayed January jobs report drops this afternoon with expectations at 70K, but the whisper number has collapsed to 37K after WH adviser Hassett talked it down. The range of estimates spans -10K to +108K, so buckle up. This print comes with benchmark revisions that could reshape the entire labor market narrative.
2. The Labor Market is Flashing Yellow
Every recent read has come in soft. Challenger cuts hit the highest January level since 2009, JOLTS fell to the lowest since September 2020, ADP was weak, and continuing claims are easing. A miss today likely locks in that June cut (already fully priced at -25.2bps) and could pull April pricing above its current 40%.
3. Trump Threatens a Second Carrier Strike on Iran
Axios reports Trump said he might send another carrier to strike Iran if talks fail. This pushed crude higher despite a massive +13.4M barrel private inventory build. WTI is nearing $65/bbl, and Brent is ba
Cummins - Brought wings 150 points down to reduce risk on the trade. There's been decent vol drop since the earnings day but given the trade was adjusted from 4200 to 4400, it is not yielding as much it should.
VIX coming out of the falling wedge, looks like it wants to pop. With the amount of games this market palys I think its likely they give us a false breakdown on the VIX before the big breakout. That's when I will buy VOLX and UVXY
USDJPY looks to have started wave 3 of 3. Most people will not see this danger until subwave 3 (of 3 of 3) begins and it convincingly breaks below 152
The subwave 2 retracement that comes tomorrow will be the prime time to short and/or long VIX + USDMXN
Tried something a little different with the data set than usual... We wanted to look today at a Cap-weight reading - something we haven't done before because of the associated math behind it. But it signals a more bearish headcount...
This nonsense about BRICS and this Unit currency persists. As was said to me very recently and directly, BRICS will continue to develop payment mechanisms and encourage the ever growing usage of national currencies. There is no BRICS currency on the horizon in any capacity whatsoever at this time.
We know what is going on and why we are one of the very few channels who has accurately laid out all the plans and developments of the multipolar world for over a decade including the BRICS.
Should I add to the wafer trade? Its a good question. Having looked at the wafer stocks, and read various analyst reports, there is no good third party metric to look at to signal now is the time to buy. We are only left with stocks. Today, SUMCO broke to new cycle highs, while WAF GY and GlobalWafers are also looking perky. From an investing point of view, its now when silicon wafer prices rise thats important - it is when the market begins to price in a future rise that is important. And that may be happening. The big tell is if SUMCO and WAF GY can trade up on a down day in the market.
Midday Sector Check
Indices are higher at midday. S&P up about 0.6%. Nasdaq leading with a 1.1% gain. Russell up 0.84% — small caps continue to catch a bid.
What's working:
- Semis are ripping. The chip names are extending Friday's bounce hard. NVDA +3.5%, AMD +3.6%, AVGO +4.7%. SOXL is catching a bid and acting like last week's selloff was just a shakeout. Oracle upgraded to Buy and running +11%.
- Big tech broadly green. MSFT +2.9%, PLTR +6.9%, TSLA +2.4%, META +2.9%, GOOG +0.8%. APP continues to be a monster at +15%.
- Gold holding above $5,000. PBoC bought for the 15th straight month. China reportedly telling banks to diversify away from Treasuries. That's a structural bid under metals. Dollar weakness (DXY near 97.3) is adding fuel.
- Financials and Energy still catching rotation flows. The "Great Rotation" theme is alive. JPM, GS seeing inflows as the yield curve steepens. Energy quietly outperformed everything last quarter (+16%).
What's not:
- Software remains under pressure. INTU -1.2%, ACN -2.
Looks like a falling wedge on VIX. I will buy VOLX on the overthrow into the apex of the triangle
Flows aren't strong at the moment despite that Dow figure and Japan at all time highs.
We're still being cautious... as a fade at the morning could arrive on concerns around Japanese bonds, U.S. treasury dumping... and other questions.
SilverM - The trade is up around 9.5-10k (more than 60% of initial credit). I have booked some quantity in this.
IMO though the trade is good to hold and should yield the entire credit and can be held until expiry. Don't see silver crossing 350k on th upside or 230k on the downside.
So the landslide victory for Takaichi in Japanese snap election has been interpreted as bullish due to his views on maintaing a loose fiscal policy. However, USDJPY is not really reflecting that. 1h bear div and strong rejection off the open. Still maintain that we are going to see a pretty savage move down this week for risk assets.
Given the action over the last couple days for NQ and ES, it looks like they're developing a running flat for wave 2. Which suggests to me that a powerful move down in wave 3 is close. Probably push up a little more tomorrow off the back of this news and I will be looking to reposition in the VIX futures long.
