The latest public Slice posts, articles and creator updates.
We identified a couple of errors in the prior newsletter—most notably, our Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) trade was completed with full profits taken but was not marked as such, and we missed a potential Macy’s (M) trade entry. Both have been corrected, and the updated issue is attached below.
Bobby
$RUT - Small cap index with a nice day. Overall still looks like a bullish structure. I still think both can be true where defensive stocks go up for their value/stability and high beta small caps go up because they offer high upside with less risk since they move much more. You can go smaller for example versus having to go really big to benefit from 5% gains on larger marketcap stocks. You can risk small amounts and get 20 to 30% moves.
Shorted the open
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
6 Feb
SHORTInvested Capital
2.4%
Selling Price
31.29$
Buying Price
31.92$
ROI
-2.03%
Am I wrong on bonds? JGBs and even German bond yields have hit highs recently...... but If I look at the performance of Staples... then seem to be implying a huge fall in bond yields...
Zappfresh is up another 6% with decent volumes, 25% up from first post price
Desco and Airfloa have also recovered from recent lows
If you are trading index options, try and observe this -
If Index is going up, OTM puts will also go up, far OTM will go even more up. So, a good trade structure at that point is to buy 2-3 strikes OTM put option and sell those hefty OTM puts that gained value. The trade can be at cost or some debit or even credit depending on the distance from ATM. I traded put ratio today on this recent upmove to 25600-25650. The trade was 1 lot 25500 put long and 6 lots 25k puts short at a cost. Check attached chart of this strategy. As the index came down 25500 put went from 60 to 80 while 25k put went from 10.7 to 10. Both legs yielding money.
Point 1 in attached chart is 12 PM when index was trading at highs of 25650 and point 2 is when index went back to 25550 or below - Doesn't mean I entered/exited at exactly on point 1 and 2 :)
Same happens when index goes down. OTM call options rise in value while near ATM go down. If you create similar structure, it will yield intraday.
Risks Involved - Flash
Mazdock - Some more upmove with vol crush will yield about 50% of the credit and will book the trade there. Targeting 7k
The QQQs have stumbled through three straight sessions—five of the last six, actually. Same for the SPY—but our recent trade recommendations kept delivering. Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) is pushing toward its third target, while Ingersoll Rand (IR) and CenterPoint Energy (CNP) hit their third targets for full profits on Wednesday. Our newest pick, Fastenal (FAST), reached all three targets within 48 hours, and our longer-term trade Target (TGT) is profitable. This performance against a weak tape underscores why active stock picking matters—when broad indices struggle, disciplined selection and targeting separate the winners from the wreckage. -Bobby-
$ETH - OBV lost support and we've lost another support. Crypto continues to be the punching bag for all markets and now we have to wait again and see where the next possible support is. My last bit of crypto exposure is a small bag of $MSTR hoping that if we can find a bit of support it would rebound faster. We've gone from fear to panic and even stocks are now into "Fear" after being in greed even just a week ago.
Circulating supply of USDT is plateauing, that usually marks a major cycle top
This is where VWAP becomes so important.
Understanding VWAP and Why Deviation Bands Matter
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is one of the most important intraday indicators that institutional traders watch.
Unlike a simple moving average, which treats every price equally, VWAP weights each price by the volume traded at that price. This tells you where the real money changed hands throughout the day.
Think of it this way: if 10,000 shares traded at $50 and only 100 shares traded at $55, the "fair price" for the day is much closer to $50 than a simple average would suggest. VWAP captures that.
Why the 1-Minute Anchored VWAP Matters
When you anchor VWAP to the 1-minute opening price, you're establishing the day's baseline from the very first meaningful price action. This becomes your reference point - are buyers or sellers in control relative to where the day started?
The Deviation Bands Are Where It Gets Interesting
Standard deviation bands around VWAP (typically 1, 2, and 3 standard devia
TNX/BTC - a very clear indication we are in risk off. I have an alert for the white box as a signal to flip long BTC
Don't average any stock because it went down.
Don't average any stock thinking there is no change in fundamental.
Stock goes down not only when fundamental becomes bad, but also when it is valued high.
If stock is not growing enough , then don't average it.
I usually don't average down. I average on upside.
Downside we don't know the Bottom, so how much we will buy? It will keep on going down.
While upside, the trend is Up, which is very imp in stock market. Buying don't come for nothing. Better average those stock, which went up after you bought and still didn't come back to your buy price, and again started going up....
eg. South West Pinnacle Exp Ltd.
We talked here at 172, went to 224 , came down to around same 170, and turn back....So it never gave paper Loss. It means, our price was correct to buy, correct price I discussed.
Stock which never give you Loss is your Best Pick. Average such stocks. Don't make a mistake to sell such stocks for peanuts of profit. Don't trade to lose the deli
So when BTC/BVOL loses the mid-channel it confirms the bear market. Which is exactly what is happening now.
I have my alerts setup for the lower trendline of the channel, that will be the signal that BTC is putting in a major bottom. As I've said, I suspect that arrives in May. Until then it's down and shorts only.
