10 Things Traders Must Know Today (Feb 11, 2026) 1. NFP Day. Finally. The delayed January jobs report drops this afternoon with expectations at 70K, but the whisper number has collapsed to 37K after WH adviser Hassett talked it down. The range of estimates spans -10K to +108K, so buckle up. This print comes with benchmark revisions that could reshape the entire labor market narrative. 2. The Labor Market is Flashing Yellow Every recent read has come in soft. Challenger cuts hit the highest January level since 2009, JOLTS fell to the lowest since September 2020, ADP was weak, and continuing claims are easing. A miss today likely locks in that June cut (already fully priced at -25.2bps) and could pull April pricing above its current 40%. 3. Trump Threatens a Second Carrier Strike on Iran Axios reports Trump said he might send another carrier to strike Iran if talks fail. This pushed crude higher despite a massive +13.4M barrel private inventory build. WTI is nearing $65/bbl, and Brent is back above $69. The geopolitical bid in oil is real. 4. China Threatens French Wine with Anti-Dumping Probes Beijing is considering launching anti-dumping duties on French wine and broader countermeasures if the EU adopts new duties. Pernod Ricard took a modest hit. This is another front in the EU-China trade war, which is escalating alongside US-China tensions. 5. USD/JPY Approaching Intervention Levels The yen continues to rip, with USD/JPY briefly breaking below 153. The pair is now approaching the 152.09 level, where Japanese officials conducted rate checks in late January. The Takaichi trade remains in full force. Faster BoJ normalization, equity inflows, and potential FX reserve deployment are all compressing the pair. 6. AUD Breaks Above 0.71 for the First Time Since Feb 2023 RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said inflation is "too high" and that they'll "do what is needed" to bring it back to target, killing any near-term rate-cut hopes. That hawkish stance, combined with surging metals prices, has the Aussie running. Next resistance is the Feb 2023 high at 0.7157. 7. World's Largest Nickel Mine Told to Slash Output 70% Indonesian authorities ordered Weda Bay to cut production to 12 million tonnes, sending nickel futures higher and lifting base metals broadly. LME Copper hit $13.25K/t. This is a supply-side squeeze playing out in real time ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. 8. Wells Fargo Raises Gold Target to $6,100-$6,300 Gold is rangebound between $4,965 and $5,086 this week, but Wells Fargo just raised its 2026 target citing geopolitical risk, volatility, and central bank demand. The metal is consolidating after reclaiming $5K. The structural bid remains intact. 9. Dassault Systèmes Craters 17% on Weak Outlook The French software giant whiffed on revenue and guided Q1 EPS well below estimates (0.25-0.31 vs. 0.33 expected). European tech is the worst-performing sector today. Meanwhile, Siemens Energy jumped 5% on strong orders, showing the market is rewarding industrial execution over software promises. 10. Government Shutdown Risk Returns Negotiations between Democrats and the White House on a stopgap funding measure are "unlikely" to produce a deal, according to Punchbowl. Another shutdown would further delay economic data releases and add noise to an already murky fiscal picture. Keep this on the radar.