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EURUSD

• Euro is behaving as anticipated as per the preferred EW count.

Quick read on where we sit heading into a fresh week.

Momentum is still strong across the board. We're pushing back toward the highs we saw on April 17th. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell are all aligned. On the surface, that should feel great.

The problem is what's underneath.

Tech is doing all the work. Industrials, utilities, defensives are flat. The TECL is overbought. The SOXL is overbought. Intel's RSI is at 87 with overbought normally considered 70. We've got a handful of semis doing 60% to 100% in a month while the rest of the market quietly trades sideways or slips. That's not a broad rally. That's a single industry pulling the index higher while everything else holds the line.

Goldman is now openly calling for a 3% to 5% flush. (That's your first sign to be long.)

Mechanical institutional selling was around $10 billion last week. Retail is buying every dip. So you've got the smart money lightening up while the dip buyers fund the rally. That's a setup that historically resolves one wa

SHORT CL - IT HAS PARABOLIC STRUCTURE WITH A SERIES OF NEST 1-2s

Watching the stablecoin dominance chart (USDT.D+USDC.D) this weekend to see if we get that move lower that we have been waiting for - a sweep of the lows could setup a beautiful opportunity to short BTC and crypto.

A sweep of the lows would be a move into the golden pocket fib and also a sweep of the previous week lows.

We do need to be cautious though... if we don't get just a sweep and immediate move back above the lows and into the existing range, there is the possibility that we could still be seeing stablecoin dominance head into that grey zone marked on the chart - which would mean that BTC could actually be putting in another leg higher towards mid to high 80s potentially.

The grey zone makes a lot of sense on the weekly chart but we aren't guaranteed to get a perfect move into it.

EURUSD Cycle Price Targets

• EURUSD has a 20D (not shown) and 40D (below) cycle targets that largely overlap.
• The sharp reversal on Friday gives credence to these targets.

$USAR and $INTC the top two performers on the entire watchlist over 30 days.

80% and 106%

Both were US government investments. $INTC originally shared below $20 for 2 entries before slice, $USAR mentioned 20 times since having slice.

There's a lot of FOMO on $INTC but hammering DCA's even more on $USAR would have been very similar results.

Hindsight is a traders worst enemy

In a perfect world I would have held $INTC from $20 and hammered 50% of the portfolio into $USAR at the lows. Perfection does not exist in trading and I'm happy to have covered both of these stocks below $20, pushed for them when prices were flat and down, and I'm hoping to be able to do a victory lap of $USAR at $40 and in the future when it's at $80 be made fun of for selling too early.

I'm excited for the next big play, long overdue to get a big runner on Slice

Market is super bullish at the moment - but I was surprised to HYG beginning to roll over...

Full Interview of Nilesh Shah with Smita Prakash Ipodcast!!

The latest FX Weekly Signals point to a more selective backdrop. DM remains modestly positive (+0.05), while EM has slipped back to roughly flat (-0.01).

In G10, GBP (+0.50) and EUR (+0.40) continue to lead. GBP is being supported mainly by fair value and carry, while EUR is driven by fair value and regime, with carry still a drag. SEK (+0.38) also stands out as a broad-based positive. On the other side, AUD (-0.47) is now the weakest developed-market signal, with trend and fair value the main headwinds, while JPY (-0.27) remains soft and CAD is essentially neutral.

In EM, INR (+0.64) remains the clearest positive signal, with strength across almost all components, and ZAR (+0.35) is also constructive. CNY (-0.46) and BRL (-0.39) remain the weakest signals, while KRW (-0.26) has also turned more negative as poor carry and liquidity outweigh better regime and valuation inputs.

Top performers of Nuclear Theme stocks discussed earlier in respective segment:

-NTPC: 25% (Large cap)

-Thermax: 43% (Mid cap)

-MTAR: 150% (Small cap)

-Patels Airtemp: 30% (Micro cap)

NKE - Daily Chart Cycle Composite

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USDJPY - Ideal EW/Fibonacci Target

BoJ and USDJPY

BOJ holds rates at 0.75% (6-3 split).

- 3 members pushed for a hike.

- Core inflation forecast raised to 2.8%, growth cut to 0.5%.

- Ueda stays cautious, hawkish undertone.

- Yen jumps, then fades. Nikkei -1%.

- Markets eye June hike.

- Hawkish hold puts pressure on yen.

USDJPY is approaching our target, it should be a nice short opportunity.