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This S&P valuation metric chart is a yellow/red flag, but not an automatic sell.

Semiconductor's Valuations

• Semiconductor's market cap has never been so extended, fwiw.
• It is twice of the one at the 2000 dot-com peak. It will come down eventually, the question is of precise timing. See my SMH cycle chart posted a few days ago.

Sell in May and Go Away

• Retire "Sell in May and Go Away?" I am not so sure, especially not this year
• Maybe shift May to June?

Gold Cycles

• Earlier this year, cycles detected the gold peak to the day.
• There was no much change. The four dominant cycles point to a cycle trough in July.

SPX - Cycle Analysis Part 2

• When we combine the four long cycles with four very long cycles I previously detected on the weekly chart, we get the cycle composite below.
• Notice that the cycle peak with this combination is shifted to the first half of June.
• I mentioned this left-translation of the daily cycle composite due to longer cycles multiple times, but now I have the capability to combine all these cycles and prove this left-translation.

Bitcoin BTC CME Monthly Candlestick And Trend Line Analysis: Interesting Take

In this video, I take a trend line and move it around to show a couple different versions of a pattern - one that's bullish and suggests a bottom and a possible move up, and another that's a bearish retest

I also cover the monthly Morning Star and what levels would need the monthly to close above or below to be bullish or bearish.

Wheat & Agro

• Posted the bullish wheat setup a couple of weeks ago.
• Reversed between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels; good enough.
• Reposting from X about support for bullish fundamentals.

IWO/IWN bearish retest looks complete. This shows that flows underneath the surface are starting to weaken as value starts to outperform growth. This is not an immeditate signal to act upon but it does tell us that we are likely very close to a reversal in the bullish trend.

Time to keep our head on a swivel!

This explains my thinking behind AI - and why I am willing to take some long risk if the valuation makes sense... namely wafer stocks like Siltronics and SUMCO.

Note how foreign central banks holdings of USTs has effectively flat lined since 2012.

Not how the claims of foreign private sector ownership of USTs has risen in that period over 4tn. Only it is not foreign private ownership at all. It is largely US domestic entities.

Hence hiding them in the likes of the Cayman Islands and the UK.

Healthcare a lagging sector that should see rotation

Energy started the year off as the hot sector, Tech/AI had a big correction, and now it's rebounding. Still cautious on the move because they were overvalued before the dip, and now are at higher valuations. The market is really trying to stick to a narrative to push higher and I'm not trying to short the strength as it can last irrationally longer than it should.

My mindset is usually to find what's next, and sometimes it works very well, other times it's annoying missing some hot trends. I chose to be conservative and play it safe instead of gambling on the AI/Tech rebound so missed out on the move. So I either can sulk for months and try FOMO chasing what's already popped or remain patient and look for the next round of winners and win back some skeptics.

A good example was bidding $INTC sub $20 and catching the first massive rally off of the move. While I was waiting for that one $NVDA and other AI stocks were red hot and running. I

CNN Fear & Greed Index Update

Greed pulled back a bit last week, but who's to say the F&G Index won't move into Extreme Greed?