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This was a bearish retest of the neckline of a head and shoulders like I said and a retest of an uptrend line
Happening as price falls back below the 50 and 200 weekly MAs which just death crossed
This is going to TANK
LT - Risk reward
Joby Aviation, Inc.
8 Oct
LONGInvested Capital
2%
Buying Price
5.720$
Current Price
-
ROI
0.00%
solid reaction from NAS after sweeping local lows. Be surprised if the bottom is not in
$MORPHO - Similar kind of setup where momentum is still pushing upwards and these double tops are looking more like cup and handles where if there is an October push they should reclaim and break on the 3rd attempt. Stops because if it goes below the previous dip then I no longer like the setup.
Morpho
8 Oct
LONGInvested Capital
5%
Buying Price
2.740$
Selling Price
2.390$
ROI
-12.77%
$CRM — two timeframes, two stories.
The 5-day is washed out: RSI crashed to 33, volume spiked into the $221.50 low. That's selling-climax territory. Short-term, the flush looks done.
The monthly tells the bigger story: steady downtrend from the $260s, but price is holding above the rising 50-day at $212.46. The $221-222 zone held as support.
The trade: $224.50 needs to reclaim $226-227 the breakdown zone to confirm the bounce. Below $221.50, the 50-day at $212 gets tested.
Oversold bounce candidate — not a trend reversal. Yet.
Rarely seen strong negative divergence between the NYSE Advance-Decline Line and SPX
Yes, the A-D line can improve in the next couple of months, and I expect so, but this damage may need more time to be fully fixed
Equal-Weight Magnificent 5 Stocks Composite (MAG5) - Cycle Analysis
MAG5 = MAG7 minus TSLA and META
When 2 or 3 out of 3 dominant MAG5 cycles have relatively close troughs, APPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and NVDA equal-weight composite responds with price corrections.
The next such confluence of troughs is at the end of Feb'27.
We have already seen similar weakness in Mar'27 in some indexes and sectors.
Market update
today was a bond-market day wearing an equity-market costume. The 10-year spiked to its highest since 2002 in the morning and took everything down with it — the S&P fell 0.7% at the lows before a strong $39B auction brought yields back down and stocks clawed back to finish nearly flat, with the S&P closing at 7,801.77, down just 0.22%. But don't let the flat close fool you: small caps fell 1.3%, the average stock equal-weight lost 0.8%, and it was narrow megacap leadership doing all the work. The 2pm Fed minutes leaned hawkish — most officials see another hike as likely this year — so the ceiling on rallies stays in place until yields cooperate. After the close, $APLD printed a monster revenue beat $341.9M vs ~$116-135M expected with base rent stepping up on schedule, which is a second straight counterpoint to the deployment-pushout fears and gives AI infrastructure a positive backdrop into tomorrow. Watch the 10-year around 5.30%: below it the relief trade continues,
NQ Nano EW Structure
US02Y B wave looks complete, strong move down now into Monday for C wave completion
SPX Technical Analysis
· We noticed some indications that the market breadth might improve.
· The number of stocks below the 50D and 200D MAs reversed the downtrend, which may indicate broader stock participation in the S&P 500, a net positive.
· SPX tagged the upper Keltner channel and formed an inverse hammer -> a pullback to the middle Keltner or more could be expected.
Unfortunately, I have been saying a few things:
Huge macro correction
Tons of massive cycles coming to an end all at>
Largest degree bear market ever in stocks
First secular bear Bitcoin
Metals take a hit at first
Oil goes nuts
Money pours into the dollar
Possible war
But what I didn't realize I might be predicting, was the fucking plague
The second death was confirmed. Russian citizens are freaking out and media is saying the gov is covering it up
The US is demand Russia provide intel and is in violation of global laws
This isn't a joke
Even if this isn't that BAD from a casualty standpoint, this could be that bad from a PANIC standpoint
Now, just like I was saying. If we have a stock market bubble, bonds breaking, metals already pumped, Bitcoin is weak, alts are dead... omg there was never any chance Bitcoin found a bottom
Now what happens is, the magnitude of the collapse is such a shocking VIBRATION, future cycles will likely be alters for some time, as volatility is so
Cant help but feel the surge in mortgage rates is bad news for home builders...
PulteGroup, Inc.
6 Oct
SHORTInvested Capital
4.3%
Selling Price
116.2$
Current Price
-
ROI
0.00%
