The latest public Slice posts, articles and creator updates.
Forex - EURUSD EW Count Alternatives
EURUSD can be counted as topped in Oct'25. But that could also be green circle-b. In the latter case one more lower low can complete green circle-c of 4, which would require one more high in wave 5 later this year.
Structurally, I prefer the black count, but if the red count is operational for DXY, then the green count in EURUSD has a chance.
Primary ETHUSD Elliott Wave Count
I expect ETH to make one more low in wave 5 to complete circle-C of a giant triangle, then up in circle-D.
Bitcoin 80-Day Cycle Price Projection
BTC has just generated an 80D cycle target of approximately 80,150-85,800.
FOMC Preview — Where Conviction Stands Right Now
Heading into tomorrow's Fed decision, we wanted to share a snapshot from one of our back-end tools called the Conviction Engine. It scores all 502 S&P 500 stocks on a scale from -100 to +100 using six different factors: momentum, value, institutional flow, trend quality, liquidity risk, and more. Think of it as a way to measure where the weight of the evidence is leaning across the entire market at any given time.
Here's what it's flashing right now.
The macro read: Neutral with a bullish transition forming underneath. But it comes with some warning flags.
139 stocks are sitting in SELL territory. Only 52 are STRONG BUY. Average RSI across the index is 46.9, which is below 50. Just over half of the S&P is above its 200-day moving average.
The sectors tell the real story.
Energy and Utilities are running the table. Zero sell signals in either sector. Energy is averaging a +59 conviction score. Utilities at +51. These are not momentum-chaser sec
SPX Update
SPX almost closed the gap fully and reached the 61.8% retracement fib. Could it make one more push higher? Sure, but it was close enough.
Gold: Preferred Elliott Wave Count
Solar Cycles vs. Financial Markets
Solar activity is strongly correlated with financial markets.
Sunspot peaks often coincide with peaks in various financial markets, such as stocks, gold, and crypto.
Stock market lows typically precede or occur simultaneously with sunspot lows. Based on the projected evolution of the solar cycle, the next major stock market low is expected around 2030. Interestingly, this aligns with my analysis of longer-term stock market cycles.
I genuinely cannot believe I am saying this, but if the ETHBTC chart is telling the truth, it is hinting at huge altcoin overperformance against Bitcoin.
I really don't understand why we'd get such a huge risk-on situation, so maybe these signals fail by the end of the month. There are 15 more days until the close so I a lot can happen.
However, if these signals breakout before the month is over, or in the coming months, alts will do well compared to BTC. I don't know if this is a BTC pumps less or falls harder situation, but it does look like there's a very good longer-term swing trade ready in ETHBTC.
This means you would want to own more spot ETH than BTC and move your BTC into ETH. Or you'd long ETHBTC if you expected ETH to overperform BTC.
A bull flag is potentially about to break out right below the Bollinger Band basis on the monthly. The RSI is working on trying again on a downtrend line that's had several stron
Happy Monday!
Request a chart below:
WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE
Global Liquidity slipped again last week down to US$188.9T, according to the latest flash estimates. Short‑term momentum has softened, with the 3‑month annualised growth rate registering 4.3% - well below the 6.0% pace seen two weeks ago. The decline reflects ongoing USD recovery, weaker collateral values and rising bond market volatility.
The 12‑month growth rate also moderated, falling to 7.4% from 8.1% a week earlier as the base effect from last year’s liquidity downturn continues to fade.
Liquidity levels remain elevated but have likely peaked. Weakening liquidity conditions will weigh negatively on risk asset markets
1. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions)
Interpretation: liquidity is drifting lower, with trend deceleration
MARKET REVIEW
I got the EURUSD EW count slightly wrong which was why i made a few mistakes late last week with positioning. Good news is that now I'm very confident in my read on this which is super important considering it is driving the entire market. This wave 5 ended up having an extended 5th wave which was why the market was so risk off late last week. Usually extended 5th get a strong retracement afterwards which is exactly what I'm expecting tomorrow with a nice risk on rally and potential short squeeze.
Likely get a pull back into FOMC so I will be looking to hedge my longs a little late tomorrow in preparation for that as I would like to hold the positions into the top on Friday. Once EURUSD reaches around 1.16695 that will be the time to execute the strategy for the coming disaster because the final wave 5 down for EURUSD will cause the EM carry trades to unwind aggressively.
All of this should line up perfectly with Crude as they're both moving in lockstep. So i will be looki
Silver - Weekly Chart Cycles
The weekly chart cycle composite points down toward 2029, with an intervening bounce in 2027 as a possibility.
Silver: 40-Day Cycle Target
3 hours ago
how do you pick the dark horse? in what basis?
All Read 4-5 Times and save.....
-- Now this is the question of all. How do I pick dark horse?
It takes lots of experience to have that acumen to pick a dark horse.
For me dark horse is, below 100 Cr Mcap. Some handle/expert at X discuss some stocks at 1200 with 10K Mcap as dark horse.
So there is a difference between them and me. I don't know how a Rs 1200 price stock is considered as a Dark Horse!! Mere demag main ye nahi jata and the most amazing thing is, people follow them and read them...
Any way coming back to , How I pick Dark Horse....
First thing is, you need to change your mindset. If you are pessimist , that don't work. If u have a habit to look at positive and negative, that don't work. If you have a habit to look at pros and cons that don't work. If you are BOOKISH that don't work....there are many more things but these are Basics. Are you this? That where the thing start for Dark Horse. So if you are these ,
Guide for the Google Sheet
Have updated a guide for the document so you can see and get explanations of what each section means. You can also click into it to find it faster.
I've also added an Updates section below it so that if I add something to the Google Doc you can see the last time I made an update and what it was.
To find the current Google Sheet: FOLDERS > CURRENT GOOGLE SHEET
