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The latest FX Weekly Signals point to a more selective backdrop. DM remains modestly positive (+0.05), while EM has slipped back to roughly flat (-0.01).

In G10, GBP (+0.50) and EUR (+0.40) continue to lead. GBP is being supported mainly by fair value and carry, while EUR is driven by fair value and regime, with carry still a drag. SEK (+0.38) also stands out as a broad-based positive. On the other side, AUD (-0.47) is now the weakest developed-market signal, with trend and fair value the main headwinds, while JPY (-0.27) remains soft and CAD is essentially neutral.

In EM, INR (+0.64) remains the clearest positive signal, with strength across almost all components, and ZAR (+0.35) is also constructive. CNY (-0.46) and BRL (-0.39) remain the weakest signals, while KRW (-0.26) has also turned more negative as poor carry and liquidity outweigh better regime and valuation inputs.

Here is a brief roundup of our underlying views April 2026

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE

Global Liquidity slipped again last week down to US$188.9T, according to the latest flash estimates. Short‑term momentum has softened, with the 3‑month annualised growth rate registering 4.3% - well below the 6.0% pace seen two weeks ago. The decline reflects ongoing USD recovery, weaker collateral values and rising bond market volatility.

The 12‑month growth rate also moderated, falling to 7.4% from 8.1% a week earlier as the base effect from last year’s liquidity downturn continues to fade.

Liquidity levels remain elevated but have likely peaked. Weakening liquidity conditions will weigh negatively on risk asset markets

1. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions)

• Latest level: $188.89T, down from $189.09T last week and below the $189.30T level of two weeks ago
• 12‑month growth: 7.4%, down from 8.1%
• 3‑month annualised growth: 4.3%, up modestly from 3.9%, but still below the 6.0% rate recorded two weeks earlier

Interpretation: liquidity is drifting lower, with trend deceleration