Crossborder/ GLI on Slice

WEEKLY GLOBAL LIQUIDITY UPDATE Global Liquidity increased to US$194.87 trillion in the latest data. The 3-month annualised growth rate slowed further to 2.7% 12-month growth remained at 6.2% Latest data show that headline liquidity has reached a new high at US$194.87 trillion , supported by PBoC liquidity injections, still low volatility, firm collateral values and a weaker US dollar but curbed by weakening Fed liquidity and ongoing ECB and BoJ QT. Annual growth remained steady at&...

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 13:25:16 GMT

WEEKLY GLOBAL LIQUIDITY UPDATE Global Liquidity increased to US$194.87 trillion in the latest data. The 3-month annualised growth rate slowed further to 2.7% 12-month growth remained at 6.2% Latest data show that headline liquidity has reached a new high at US$194.87 trillion , supported by PBoC liquidity injections, still low volatility, firm collateral values and a weaker US dollar but curbed by weakening Fed liquidity and ongoing ECB and BoJ QT. Annual growth remained steady at 6.2% , while short-term momentum weakened further, with the 3-month annualised growth rate slowing to 2.7% . This suggests that while overall liquidity conditions remain highly supportive, the pace of expansion continues to moderate. Weak Shadow Monetary Base growth confirms that underlying liquidity creation has stalled. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions) Latest level: US$194.87T (↑ from US$194.44T last week; ↑ from US$194.08T two weeks ago) 12-month growth: 6.2% (unchanged from 6.2% last week; unchanged from 6.2% two weeks ago) 3-month annualised growth: 2.7% (↓ from 2.9% last week; ↓ from 3.9% two weeks ago) Interpretation Headline liquidity rose to a new high of US$194.87T . Annual growth remained stable at 6.2% , while the 3-month annualised growth rate eased further to 2.7% . The divergence between stable annual growth and weakening short-term momentum suggests liquidity conditions remain supportive but are continuing to lose pace. Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) Latest level: US$109.72T (↑ from US$109.63T last week; ↓ from US$110.31T two weeks ago) 12-month growth: -0.1% (↓ from 0.1% last week; ↓ from 0.2% two weeks ago) 3-month annualised growth: 0.8% (unchanged from 0.8% last week; ↑ from -2.9% two weeks ago) Interpretation SMB increased slightly to US$109.72T from US$109.63T the previous week. However, annual growth slipped to -0.1% , indicating that underlying liquidity creation remains subdued. The improvement in short-term momentum to 0.8% reflects base effects and stabilisation from recent weakness rather than a decisive acceleration in liquidity generation. Collateral Multiplier & Volatility Mechanism Volatility ↓ → Haircuts ↓ → Multiplier ↑ → Liquidity ↑ Latest multiplier: 1.78 (↑ from 1.77 last week; ↑ from 1.76 two weeks ago) Interpretation The collateral multiplier increased to 1.78 from 1.77 the previous week, returning to the upper end of its recent range. This suggests collateral conditions remain supportive and continue to provide meaningful support to overall liquidity conditions. Key Takeaways Global Liquidity rose to a new high of US$194.87T , up from US$194.44T the previous week. 3-month annualised growth slowed further to 2.7% from 2.9% . 12-month growth remained steady at 6.2% . SMB annual growth slipped to -0.1% from 0.1% , moving back into negative territory. SMB short-term growth held steady at 0.8% , remaining positive but well below headline liquidity growth. The collateral multiplier rose to 1.78 from 1.77 , providing continued support to liquidity conditions. Overall liquidity conditions remain supportive, although headline short-term growth momentum continues to moderate and underlying liquidity creation remains subdued.

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE Global Liquidity Update Global Liquidity slipped to US$193.62 trillion in the latest data. The 3-month annualised growth rate eased to 6.5% 12-month growth moderated to 5.7% Latest data confirm that headline liquidity has hit a plateau at near-record highs. Both short-term and annual growth rates continue to decline, indicating a clear moderation in liquidity momentum. Collateral dynamics remain supportive but are likely moderating as evidenced by lower bond values and a sligh...

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:50:35 GMT

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE Global Liquidity Update Global Liquidity slipped to US$193.62 trillion in the latest data. The 3-month annualised growth rate eased to 6.5% 12-month growth moderated to 5.7% Latest data confirm that headline liquidity has hit a plateau at near-record highs. Both short-term and annual growth rates continue to decline, indicating a clear moderation in liquidity momentum. Collateral dynamics remain supportive but are likely moderating as evidenced by lower bond values and a slight rise in volatility. Underlying liquidity creation as measured by the Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) is weakening, despite renewed support from the PBoC. Nominal SMB has slipped below year-ago levels and short-term momentum remains negative. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions) Latest level: US$193.62T (↓ from US$193.80T last week; ↓ from US$194.04T two weeks ago) 12-month growth: 5.7% (↓ from 6.3% last week; ↓ from 7.0% two weeks ago) 3-month annualised growth: 6.5% (↓ from 10.3% last week; ↓ from 13.3% two weeks ago) Interpretation Headline liquidity remains elevated at US$193.62T but has continued to edge lower over recent weeks. Annual growth slowed to 5.7% , while the 3-month annualised growth rate fell to 6.5% , extending the loss of momentum evident since the recent peak. Although liquidity conditions remain broadly supportive, the pace of expansion has moderated noticeably. Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) Latest level: US$109.64T (↓ from US$110.22T last week; ↓ from US$109.95T two weeks ago) 12-month growth: -0.1% (↓ from 0.6% last week; ↓ from 0.3% two weeks ago) 3-month annualised growth: -1.1% (↑ from -1.4% last week; ↓ from -0.8% two weeks ago) Interpretation SMB remains the weakest component of the liquidity picture. The level fell to US$109.64T in the latest data and is now 0.1% below its level a year ago. While short-term momentum improved slightly from last week's reading, the 3-month annualised growth rate remains negative at -1.1% , signalling continued weakness in underlying liquidity creation. The contrast between declining SMB growth and still-elevated headline liquidity suggests that liquidity conditions continue to rely heavily on supportive financial market dynamics rather than broad-based monetary expansion. Collateral Multiplier & Volatility Mechanism Volatility ↓ → Haircuts ↓ → Multiplier ↑ → Liquidity ↑ Latest multiplier: 1.76 (unchanged from 1.76 last week; unchanged from 1.76 two weeks ago) Interpretation The collateral multiplier remained stable at 1.76 . Collateral conditions therefore continue to provide support to liquidity creation, offsetting some of the weakness evident in underlying monetary measures. However, with the multiplier unchanged for several weeks, collateral dynamics are no longer providing additional impetus to headline liquidity growth. Key Takeaways Global Liquidity stood at US$193.62T , remaining historically elevated despite declining for a third consecutive week. 3-month annualised growth slowed to 6.5% from 10.3% the previous week. 12-month growth moderated to 5.7% from 6.3% . SMB weakened, with annual growth turning slightly negative to -0.1% . SMB short-term momentum remained negative at -1.1% , despite a modest improvement from last week. The collateral multiplier remained stable at 1.76 , continuing to support liquidity conditions. Overall liquidity conditions remain supportive but momentum has clearly softened. The divergence between relatively strong headline liquidity levels and weak underlying monetary growth remains a key feature of the current environment.

The latest FX forecast still favours EUR , but the breakdown matters: the signal is being driven by trend, valuation, and regime , not by carry. GBP also remains constructive, though its support comes more from regime and valuation than from a fully aligned factor set. SEK and SGD continue to screen positively, with trend a key driver in both. In contrast, CAD remains soft on weak regime and valuation , while JPY is still being held back primarily by carry . In EM, ZAR stands out on strong carry and trend , and KRW remains constructive thanks to a strong trend signal despite negative carry.

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 15:10:32 GMT

The latest FX forecast still favours EUR , but the breakdown matters: the signal is being driven by trend, valuation, and regime , not by carry. GBP also remains constructive, though its support comes more from regime and valuation than from a fully aligned factor set. SEK and SGD continue to screen positively, with trend a key driver in both. In contrast, CAD remains soft on weak regime and valuation , while JPY is still being held back primarily by carry . In EM, ZAR stands out on strong carry and trend , and KRW remains constructive thanks to a strong trend signal despite negative carry.

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE Overview Global Liquidity rose to US$193.3 trillion last week, according to the latest data. The 3‑month annualised growth rate held at 8.7% 12‑month growth increased to 7.9% While headline liquidity is rising, the expansion remains narrowly driven by US Fed and Treasury policy , with underlying liquidity conditions still fragile. In particular, the Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) is held in check by weakening PBoC liquidity and ongoing Bank of Japan, ECB and Bank of England QT , highlighting a divergence between surface‑level strength and core liquidity dynamics. US dollar strength is a further headwind. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions) Latest level: US$193.29T (↑ from US$193.16T last week; ↑ from US$192.43T two weeks ago) 12‑month growth: 7.9% (↑ from 7.5% last week; ↑ from 7.0% two weeks ago) 3‑month annualised growth: 8.7% (unchanged from 8.7% last week; ↑ from 7.8% two weeks ago) Interpretation Headline liquidity remains on an upward trajectory, with levels and annual growth continuing to strengthen . Short‑term momentum is firm rather than accelerating further , suggesting the recent improvement is consolidating at elevated levels . The overall backdrop remains supportive, but the drivers are still concentrated rather than broad‑based . Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) Latest level: US$110.14T (↑ from US$109.50T last week; ↑ from US$109.40T two weeks ago) 12‑month growth: 2.3% (↑ from 1.8% last week; ↑ from 2.2% two weeks ago) 3‑month annualised growth: –7.3% (unchanged from –7.3% last week; ↑ from –8.8% two weeks ago) Interpretation SMB showed a modest improvement in level and annual growth , but short‑term momentum remains deeply negative . The slight pickup in annual growth suggests some stabilisation However, negative 3‑month momentum indicates ongoing contraction in underlying liquidity creation This continues to signal a fragile foundation , with SMB dynamics still not confirming the strength seen in headline liquidity. Collateral Multiplier & Volatility Mechanism Volatility ↓ → Haircuts ↓ → Multiplier ↑ → Liquidity ↑ Latest multiplier: 1.75 (↓ from 1.76 last week; ↑ from 1.73 two weeks ago) Interpretation The collateral multiplier edged slightly lower on the week , though it remains elevated relative to recent levels . Declines in bond market volatility (MOVE Index) have supported a rise in the multiplier The recent stabilisation suggests less incremental support from collateral dynamics at the margin While still supportive, the multiplier is now contributing less additional upside impulse than in prior weeks. Key Takeaways Global Liquidity rose to US$193.3T , with 12‑month growth strengthening to 7.9% Short‑term momentum remains firm at 8.7% , but is no longer accelerating SMB improved modestly , with annual growth rising to 2.3% , but: 3‑month momentum remains sharply negative (–7.3%) Collateral support softened slightly , with the multiplier easing to 1.75 The overall liquidity backdrop remains supportive but narrowly driven , with underlying conditions still fragile

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:36:02 GMT

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE Overview Global Liquidity rose to US$193.3 trillion last week, according to the latest data. The 3‑month annualised growth rate held at 8.7% 12‑month growth increased to 7.9% While headline liquidity is rising, the expansion remains narrowly driven by US Fed and Treasury policy , with underlying liquidity conditions still fragile. In particular, the Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) is held in check by weakening PBoC liquidity and ongoing Bank of Japan, ECB and Bank of England QT , highlighting a divergence between surface‑level strength and core liquidity dynamics. US dollar strength is a further headwind. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions) Latest level: US$193.29T (↑ from US$193.16T last week; ↑ from US$192.43T two weeks ago) 12‑month growth: 7.9% (↑ from 7.5% last week; ↑ from 7.0% two weeks ago) 3‑month annualised growth: 8.7% (unchanged from 8.7% last week; ↑ from 7.8% two weeks ago) Interpretation Headline liquidity remains on an upward trajectory, with levels and annual growth continuing to strengthen . Short‑term momentum is firm rather than accelerating further , suggesting the recent improvement is consolidating at elevated levels . The overall backdrop remains supportive, but the drivers are still concentrated rather than broad‑based . Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) Latest level: US$110.14T (↑ from US$109.50T last week; ↑ from US$109.40T two weeks ago) 12‑month growth: 2.3% (↑ from 1.8% last week; ↑ from 2.2% two weeks ago) 3‑month annualised growth: –7.3% (unchanged from –7.3% last week; ↑ from –8.8% two weeks ago) Interpretation SMB showed a modest improvement in level and annual growth , but short‑term momentum remains deeply negative . The slight pickup in annual growth suggests some stabilisation However, negative 3‑month momentum indicates ongoing contraction in underlying liquidity creation This continues to signal a fragile foundation , with SMB dynamics still not confirming the strength seen in headline liquidity. Collateral Multiplier & Volatility Mechanism Volatility ↓ → Haircuts ↓ → Multiplier ↑ → Liquidity ↑ Latest multiplier: 1.75 (↓ from 1.76 last week; ↑ from 1.73 two weeks ago) Interpretation The collateral multiplier edged slightly lower on the week , though it remains elevated relative to recent levels . Declines in bond market volatility (MOVE Index) have supported a rise in the multiplier The recent stabilisation suggests less incremental support from collateral dynamics at the margin While still supportive, the multiplier is now contributing less additional upside impulse than in prior weeks. Key Takeaways Global Liquidity rose to US$193.3T , with 12‑month growth strengthening to 7.9% Short‑term momentum remains firm at 8.7% , but is no longer accelerating SMB improved modestly , with annual growth rising to 2.3% , but: 3‑month momentum remains sharply negative (–7.3%) Collateral support softened slightly , with the multiplier easing to 1.75 The overall liquidity backdrop remains supportive but narrowly driven , with underlying conditions still fragile

The latest FX Weekly Signals point to a more selective backdrop. DM remains modestly positive (+0.05) , while EM has slipped back to roughly flat (-0.01) . In G10, GBP (+0.50) and EUR (+0.40) continue to lead. GBP is being supported mainly by fair value and carry , while EUR is driven by fair value and regime , with carry still a drag. SEK (+0.38) also stands out as a broad-based positive. On the other side, AUD (-0.47) is now the weakest developed-market signal, with trend and fair value the main headwinds, while JPY (-0.27) remains soft and CAD is essentially neutral. In EM, INR (+0.64) remains the clearest positive signal, with strength across almost all components, and ZAR (+0.35) is also constructive. CNY (-0.46) and BRL (-0.39) remain the weakest signals, while KRW (-0.26) has also turned more negative as poor carry and liquidity outweigh better regime and valuation inputs.

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 16:55:57 GMT

The latest FX Weekly Signals point to a more selective backdrop. DM remains modestly positive (+0.05) , while EM has slipped back to roughly flat (-0.01) . In G10, GBP (+0.50) and EUR (+0.40) continue to lead. GBP is being supported mainly by fair value and carry , while EUR is driven by fair value and regime , with carry still a drag. SEK (+0.38) also stands out as a broad-based positive. On the other side, AUD (-0.47) is now the weakest developed-market signal, with trend and fair value the main headwinds, while JPY (-0.27) remains soft and CAD is essentially neutral. In EM, INR (+0.64) remains the clearest positive signal, with strength across almost all components, and ZAR (+0.35) is also constructive. CNY (-0.46) and BRL (-0.39) remain the weakest signals, while KRW (-0.26) has also turned more negative as poor carry and liquidity outweigh better regime and valuation inputs.

Here is a brief roundup of our underlying views April 2026

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:59:04 GMT

Here is a brief roundup of our underlying views April 2026

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE Global Liquidity slipped again last week down to US$188.9T , according to the latest flash estimates. Short‑term momentum has softened, with the 3‑month annualised growth rate registering 4.3% - well below the 6.0% pace seen two weeks ago. The decline reflects ongoing USD recovery, weaker collateral values and rising bond market volatility. The 12‑month growth rate also moderated, falling to 7.4% from 8.1% a week earlier as the base effect from last year’s liquidity downturn continues to fade. Liquidity levels remain elevated but have likely peaked. Weakening liquidity conditions will weigh negatively on risk asset markets 1. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions) Latest level: $188.89T , down from $189.09T last week and below the $189.30T level of two weeks ago 12‑month growth: 7.4% , down from 8.1% 3‑month annualised growth: 4.3% , up modestly from 3.9% , but still below the 6.0% rate recorded two weeks earlier Interpretation: liquidity is drifting lower, with trend deceleration intact. 2. Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) Latest level: $109.37T , down from $110.16T 12‑month growth: 3.4% , down from 4.2% 3‑month annualised growth: 0.5% , sharply below 3.4% last week and 7.7% two weeks prior Interpretation: SMB deterioration has accelerated, driven by weaker collateral valuations and currency translation effects. 3. Collateral Multiplier Bond‑market volatility has increased: MOVE index: hit 95 at the end of last week, well below the April 2025 high (137.3), but still consistent with a mild tightening impulse. Key Takeaways Global Liquidity softened again , with both headline levels and annual growth slowing USD strength, weaker collateral values and rising bond volatility remain the dominant tightening forces PBoC liquidity injections and stable Fed flows continue to act as stabilisers SMB weakened further , reflecting falling collateral values and currency effects Collateral multiplier rose , but due to a shrinking SMB — a signal of fragility rather than strength

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 12:53:05 GMT

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE Global Liquidity slipped again last week down to US$188.9T , according to the latest flash estimates. Short‑term momentum has softened, with the 3‑month annualised growth rate registering 4.3% - well below the 6.0% pace seen two weeks ago. The decline reflects ongoing USD recovery, weaker collateral values and rising bond market volatility. The 12‑month growth rate also moderated, falling to 7.4% from 8.1% a week earlier as the base effect from last year’s liquidity downturn continues to fade. Liquidity levels remain elevated but have likely peaked. Weakening liquidity conditions will weigh negatively on risk asset markets 1. Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions) Latest level: $188.89T , down from $189.09T last week and below the $189.30T level of two weeks ago 12‑month growth: 7.4% , down from 8.1% 3‑month annualised growth: 4.3% , up modestly from 3.9% , but still below the 6.0% rate recorded two weeks earlier Interpretation: liquidity is drifting lower, with trend deceleration intact. 2. Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) Latest level: $109.37T , down from $110.16T 12‑month growth: 3.4% , down from 4.2% 3‑month annualised growth: 0.5% , sharply below 3.4% last week and 7.7% two weeks prior Interpretation: SMB deterioration has accelerated, driven by weaker collateral valuations and currency translation effects. 3. Collateral Multiplier Bond‑market volatility has increased: MOVE index: hit 95 at the end of last week, well below the April 2025 high (137.3), but still consistent with a mild tightening impulse. Key Takeaways Global Liquidity softened again , with both headline levels and annual growth slowing USD strength, weaker collateral values and rising bond volatility remain the dominant tightening forces PBoC liquidity injections and stable Fed flows continue to act as stabilisers SMB weakened further , reflecting falling collateral values and currency effects Collateral multiplier rose , but due to a shrinking SMB — a signal of fragility rather than strength

FX Weekly Signals are out. These views are generated by our multi-factor FX model, with the core macro driver coming from CrossBorder Capital’s liquidity dataset . The heatmap highlights where liquidity conditions are translating into stronger vs weaker relative FX signals this week.

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 07:30:00 GMT

FX Weekly Signals are out. These views are generated by our multi-factor FX model, with the core macro driver coming from CrossBorder Capital’s liquidity dataset . The heatmap highlights where liquidity conditions are translating into stronger vs weaker relative FX signals this week.

What drives Bitcoin? Results from long-term study from VAR model using weekly data. Shows Global Liquidity dominant factor. Gold plays a secondary role, revealing short-term negative correlation and long-term positive correlation.

noreply@slice-app.io (Crossborder/ GLI) — Mon, 19 Jan 2026 11:15:58 GMT

What drives Bitcoin? Results from long-term study from VAR model using weekly data. Shows Global Liquidity dominant factor. Gold plays a secondary role, revealing short-term negative correlation and long-term positive correlation.