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Daily Analysis — Monday, February 03, 2025 “Tariff Man in da house!” 1. Context & Review of Overnight Action After hitting an intraday high on Friday, the market sold off sharply into the close on news of additional tariffs (the “Trump Tariff Tweet”). The S&P 500 cash (SPX) finished around 6040. Over the weekend, the announced tariffs were confirmed, as anticipated by many traders. On Sunday evening (Feb. 02), futures slid around 2%, reflecting the market’s reaction to the official announcement. The E-mini S&P (ES) traded in a 47-point band (5935–5982). The market opened near 5982 Sunday night, sold off, and is now hovering around 5940–5950 in premarket trade (as of roughly 6:15 AM). 2. Macro Drivers & Upcoming Data A raft of employment data is due this week, along with several Fed officials scheduled to speak. Expect heightened intraday volatility around these events. On Monday (02/03), ISM Global is released at 9:45 AM and ISM Prices plus PMI at 10:00 AM. These could drive short-term moves if they diverge from consensus expectations. In earnings, $PLTR reports after market close (AMC). This may affect tech sentiment. Tariff headlines remain in focus: JPMorgan warns a sustained 25% tariff hike could push Mexico/Canada into recession; Morgan Stanley sees a Mexico recession as its base case; Goldman Sachs suggests the tariffs may be short-lived. 3. Key Levels, Strikes & Options Flows SPX currently sits near 5950, with notable put open interest around 5940, 5925, 5915/25, and 5890 that could act as support if selling intensifies. Calls at 6025, 6040, and 6080 might function as overhead resistance if the market attempts to rally. The weekly expected move is about ±50 points (5900–6000), with implied volatility ~30, so large intraday swings are possible. VIX reached overnight highs near 20 on thin-volume hedging; watch if it remains elevated after the open. 4. Technical Road Map & Scenarios Key reference for SPX is around 5950. Above this pivot, potential upside targets are 5970–5975, then 5990–5995. A break above 5995/6000 could trigger a gap-fill move toward 6025–6040. Below 5950, watch 5925 as near-term support. A further break toward 5915 could result in a stall or bounce. A decisive break below 5915 might accelerate selling toward the 5890 put wall. 5. Trade Ideas & Considerations • A 5945/5925 put credit spread (exp. Tuesday, Feb. 04) shows decent size (~7k). Observe whether those positions are closed or rolled, as it may gauge sentiment about holding 5925. • The gap from 5980–6060 (Friday’s high to Sunday’s open) could fill quickly on positive headlines or short covering. In the absence of bullish catalysts, downside put OI near 5890–5925 may come into play. • Remain flexible and consider defined-risk strategies, given the potential for quick moves tied to tariff commentary, economic releases, and earnings (especially $PLTR). 6. Summary & Game Plan • Watch the 5950 pivot closely. Above it, upside targets include 5975 and 5995/6000. Below it, 5925 and then 5915 are key supports. • Elevated implied volatility (~30) suggests wide intraday ranges. Manage risk carefully if attempting gap-fill or breakdown trades. • Headlines can swiftly override technicals, so stay alert to tariff developments, economic data prints, and major earnings results. The charts shows current positioning in NetGex.

Published Feb 03, 2025Updated Feb 03, 20258 min read
Daily Analysis — Monday, February 03, 2025 “Tariff Man in da house!” 1. Context & Review of Overnight Action After hitting an intraday high on Friday, the market sold off sharply into the close on news of additional tariffs (the “Trump Tariff Tweet”). The S&P 500 cash (SPX) finished around 6040. Over the weekend, the announced tariffs were confirmed, as anticipated by many traders. On Sunday evening (Feb. 02), futures slid around 2%, reflecting the market’s reaction to the official announcement. The E-mini S&P (ES) traded in a 47-point band (5935–5982). The market opened near 5982 Sunday night, sold off, and is now hovering around 5940–5950 in premarket trade (as of roughly 6:15 AM). 2. Macro Drivers & Upcoming Data A raft of employment data is due this week, along with several Fed officials scheduled to speak. Expect heightened intraday volatility around these events. On Monday (02/03), ISM Global is released at 9:45 AM and ISM Prices plus PMI at 10:00 AM. These could drive short-term moves if they diverge from consensus expectations. In earnings, $PLTR reports after market close (AMC). This may affect tech sentiment. Tariff headlines remain in focus: JPMorgan warns a sustained 25% tariff hike could push Mexico/Canada into recession; Morgan Stanley sees a Mexico recession as its base case; Goldman Sachs suggests the tariffs may be short-lived. 3. Key Levels, Strikes & Options Flows SPX currently sits near 5950, with notable put open interest around 5940, 5925, 5915/25, and 5890 that could act as support if selling intensifies. Calls at 6025, 6040, and 6080 might function as overhead resistance if the market attempts to rally. The weekly expected move is about ±50 points (5900–6000), with implied volatility ~30, so large intraday swings are possible. VIX reached overnight highs near 20 on thin-volume hedging; watch if it remains elevated after the open. 4. Technical Road Map & Scenarios Key reference for SPX is around 5950. Above this pivot, potential upside targets are 5970–5975, then 5990–5995. A break above 5995/6000 could trigger a gap-fill move toward 6025–6040. Below 5950, watch 5925 as near-term support. A further break toward 5915 could result in a stall or bounce. A decisive break below 5915 might accelerate selling toward the 5890 put wall. 5. Trade Ideas & Considerations • A 5945/5925 put credit spread (exp. Tuesday, Feb. 04) shows decent size (~7k). Observe whether those positions are closed or rolled, as it may gauge sentiment about holding 5925. • The gap from 5980–6060 (Friday’s high to Sunday’s open) could fill quickly on positive headlines or short covering. In the absence of bullish catalysts, downside put OI near 5890–5925 may come into play. • Remain flexible and consider defined-risk strategies, given the potential for quick moves tied to tariff commentary, economic releases, and earnings (especially $PLTR). 6. Summary & Game Plan • Watch the 5950 pivot closely. Above it, upside targets include 5975 and 5995/6000. Below it, 5925 and then 5915 are key supports. • Elevated implied volatility (~30) suggests wide intraday ranges. Manage risk carefully if attempting gap-fill or breakdown trades. • Headlines can swiftly override technicals, so stay alert to tariff developments, economic data prints, and major earnings results. The charts shows current positioning in NetGex.
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